villalad21 Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 We won't finish in the top half. Our run in is brutal and we don't have our star man. Sounds really grim and negative but am is supposed to bullshit you or be realistic? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 50 minutes ago, M_Afro said: To be fair they only had 10 men against City for over half a match. Anyway, I don’t care about Leeds. In fact I don’t like them. As I said, I hope I am wrong. I just think that they are real competition to us over the next few years. If they can repeat it next season then yes but if can’t then no. Obvious to say but teams newly promoted can sometimes have a good first season and then second season fades away. People say they can’t see a team fading away but then the second season they do, an age old story. If they can avoid second season syndrome then they will be a rival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrBlack Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 There are some stats somewhere showing a team is about 42% likely to get relegated in its first season and about 57% likely to get relegated in its second season. It only goes up a further 3% from season 2 to season 3, so you're looking at most promoted teams getting relegated within 2 seasons. While a significant chunk of those go in season 2, it usually is season 1 though. You can only really start being, in all probability, comfortable from season 3 and beyond. 3 hours ago, nick76 said: If they can repeat it next season then yes but if can’t then no. Obvious to say but teams newly promoted can sometimes have a good first season and then second season fades away. People say they can’t see a team fading away but then the second season they do, an age old story. If they can avoid second season syndrome then they will be a rival. As such, this is pretty accurate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 3 hours ago, villalad21 said: We won't finish in the top half. Our run in is brutal and we don't have our star man. Sounds really grim and negative but am is supposed to bullshit you or be realistic? I don’t normally agree with you. But I have to agree with this. I hope we’re both proven wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 4 hours ago, villalad21 said: We won't finish in the top half. Our run in is brutal and we don't have our star man. Sounds really grim and negative but am is supposed to bullshit you or be realistic? To be fair you only post when you can be grim and negative about Villa. If I know somebody wants to post something like that I know you’ll be the first to post it. If it’s positive statement about Villa somewhere about something you won’t be anywhere to be seen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 16 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said: I don’t normally agree with you. But I have to agree with this. I hope we’re both proven wrong. I could imagine him in glee writing that... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 Just now, nick76 said: I could imagine him in glee writing that... He’s been proven wrong time and after time so hopefully it happens again. We really need to pick up points v Albion and palace at the least. It’s so frustrating losing Grealish for what could be half a season. But we also need to factor this in on the work that’s done for next season in terms of how we play without him and players we bring in. Such a massive summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said: He’s been proven wrong time and after time so hopefully it happens again. We really need to pick up points v Albion and palace at the least. It’s so frustrating losing Grealish for what could be half a season. But we also need to factor this in on the work that’s done for next season in terms of how we play without him and players we bring in. Such a massive summer. Completely agree. We can see the issue, we can’t do anything about it until the summer but then we need to fix in the transfer window. Aside from that, we have an incredibly hard run in, we have to give our best shot. We have 2 games in hand, 2 points behind 10th place and a rotten run in. You never know with the Villa. A lucky win somewhere could be the difference between top half and bottom half because our rivals are inconsistent as well (but do have an easier run in than us). If we got a lucky win against Man City and then beat West Brom, by Sunday night we’d be in a great position but if we lose both we are struggling. There are going to be some strange results coming up. I’m still optimistic for a top half though despite being a tall order. Villalad21 thought we were relegated last season but as I said I thought we’d survive so I’m sticking with my gut because as you say most of the time he’s wrong. It’s just the joy he gets from posting negative things is really rather sad! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GingerCollins29 Posted April 25, 2021 Author Share Posted April 25, 2021 I see it now as a mini league for 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th between leeds, arsenal, wolves and us. Currently: 9th leeds p33 47 pts 10th arse p33 46pts 11th villa p31 44 pts 12th wolves p33 41 pts Leeds: brighton (a), spurs (h), burnley (a), soton (h), west brom (h) Arse: newc(a), west brom(h), chrlsea (a), palace (a), brighton (h) Villa: west brom (h), everton (a), everton (h), utd (h), palace (a), spuds (a), villa (h) Wolves: west brom (A), brighton (h), spurs (h), everton (a), utd (h) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tom_avfc Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 1 minute ago, GingerCollins29 said: I see it now as a mini league for 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th between leeds, arsenal, wolves and us. Currently: 9th leeds p33 47 pts 10th arse p33 46pts 11th villa p31 44 pts 12th wolves p33 41 pts Leeds: brighton (a), spurs (h), burnley (a), soton (h), west brom (h) Arse: newc(a), west brom(h), chrlsea (a), palace (a), brighton (h) Villa: west brom (h), everton (a), everton (h), utd (h), palace (a), spuds (a), villa (h) Wolves: west brom (A), brighton (h), spurs (h), everton (a), utd (h) The way people were talking I thought Wolves had an easy run in. Last three look pretty tough for them and all in all it’s a similar run in to us. Win tonight and I fancy us to finish above Wolves but below the other two who do actually have easy run ins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted April 25, 2021 Moderator Share Posted April 25, 2021 A City win in the cup final pushes the conference place into the league - and that brings my dream of no Europe at all for Spurs and Arsenal and Liverpool in the conference with a final that gives 4,000 tickets out to their fans. C'mon Citeh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 Spurs 90 minutes away from the conference league. Even winning a trophy won't do much for them in the long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post sne Posted April 25, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted April 25, 2021 (edited) 5 minutes ago, GingerCollins29 said: I see it now as a mini league for 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th between leeds, arsenal, wolves and us. Leeds: brighton (a), spurs (h), burnley (a), soton (h), west brom (h) Arse: newc(a), west brom(h), chrlsea (a), palace (a), brighton (h) Villa: west brom (h), everton (a), everton (h), utd (h), palace (a), spuds (a), villa (h) Wolves: west brom (A), brighton (h), spurs (h), everton (a), utd (h) Really letting ourselves down if we don't get anything from that game. Edited April 25, 2021 by sne 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GingerCollins29 Posted April 25, 2021 Author Share Posted April 25, 2021 10 minutes ago, sne said: Really letting ourselves down if we don't get anything from that game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robby b Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 (edited) I just worked out that we secured our safety mathematically with eight games still to play. : > What an improvement on last season! It was two weeks ago, on Sunday 18th, thanks to Arsenal when Nketiah scored that 97th minute equaliser against Fulham. Edited April 26, 2021 by robby b 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StewieGriffin Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 Has the Everton home game been rearranged yet? Might end up being the one that decides top half or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCJonah Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 1 hour ago, robby b said: I just worked out that we secured our safety mathematically with eight games still to play. : > What an improvement on last season! It was two weeks ago, on Sunday 18th, thanks to Arsenal when Nketiah scored that 97th minute equaliser against Fulham. Trying to think back to the houllier season. Wonder when we secured our safety that season? Be surprised if it was as early as we we've done it this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 On 25/04/2021 at 16:23, sne said: Really letting ourselves down if we don't get anything from that game. Pretty much nailed on that we will concede a soft goal or two and then have to fight back late on. Not to worry, I think they have a record of conceding soft goals as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
useless Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 We secured safety in the Houllier season in the second to last game against Arsenal. In the last ten years we've only played five Premier League games in which we've been mathematically safe from relegation. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCJonah Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 16 minutes ago, useless said: We secured safety in the Houllier season in the second to last game against Arsenal. In the last ten years we've only played five Premier League games in which we've been mathematically safe from relegation. Might have to steal this for the Dean Smith thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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