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The Race for Europe 20/21


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4 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

I’d be a lot more optimistic about a strong end to the season if we knew Jack was returning. 

well according to Dean he's 99.9% chance of returning...  so its 50/50

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On 04/04/2021 at 18:31, YLN said:

7 points behind 4th with a game in hand.

Why not? With Grealish to come back as well for the last nine games. Maybe

I cannot see it happening unfortunately, I don't think we will even qualify for Europa League.

I think we will be pick up a maximum of 8-10pts from our remaining games looking at our run in.

I think we have left ourselves too much to do and this comes from dropping silly points from teams much lower than us in games we should have won.

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49 minutes ago, AvfcRigo82 said:

I think we will be pick up a maximum of 8-10pts from our remaining games looking at our run in.

I was also looking at this last night and struggled to get us into double figures 

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1 hour ago, Kingman said:

I was also looking at this last night and struggled to get us into double figures 

Wins v Palace and West Brom hopefully although they could easily be draws. We can get something in both games v Everton as they are dogs*** at Goodison and have the look to me of a team in beach mode as I can't see them getting close to top 6 with the fixtures they have left and deep down they know it.

Think we've got one more surprise win in us and well that simply has to be Man. United...for the love of McGrath....

I'd be very happy with 11 points taking us up to 55 although we're obviously going to need Jack back to have a proper chance. 3 wins and 2 draws isn't impossible given our defence is still holding up fine bar the odd individual error.

Edited by VillaChris
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1 hour ago, Kingman said:

I was also looking at this last night and struggled to get us into double figures 

Yep, we have too many tough games 'on paper' and we're equally expecting a lot from the teams above us to also drop points.

As much as I would like us to reach a European place this season, sadly I don't think it's now possible.

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5 hours ago, AvfcRigo82 said:

I cannot see it happening unfortunately, I don't think we will even qualify for Europa League.

I think we will be pick up a maximum of 8-10pts from our remaining games looking at our run in.

I think we have left ourselves too much to do and this comes from dropping silly points from teams much lower than us in games we should have won.

Yeah I mean if we're making Top 4, we'll need to get results like one of the 4 best teams in the league would expect to get in our remaining games. And if we want top 7 similarly. It will all be about hitting a bit of form in the last 9 games. If we continue to play like we did in the last 8 games, then obviously not. 

But it's possible we'll go on an amazing winning run. Unlikely. But possible

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1 hour ago, YLN said:

Yeah I mean if we're making Top 4, we'll need to get results like one of the 4 best teams in the league would expect to get in our remaining games. And if we want top 7 similarly. It will all be about hitting a bit of form in the last 9 games. If we continue to play like we did in the last 8 games, then obviously not. 

But it's possible we'll go on an amazing winning run. Unlikely. But possible

I mean we went on a nice run to round off the season last year when we were one of the worst teams in the division. It's not beyond us.

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10 hours ago, VillaChris said:

Wins v Palace and West Brom hopefully although they could easily be draws. We can get something in both games v Everton as they are dogs*** at Goodison and have the look to me of a team in beach mode as I can't see them getting close to top 6 with the fixtures they have left and deep down they know it.

Think we've got one more surprise win in us and well that simply has to be Man. United...for the love of McGrath....

I'd be very happy with 11 points taking us up to 55 although we're obviously going to need Jack back to have a proper chance. 3 wins and 2 draws isn't impossible given our defence is still holding up fine bar the odd individual error.

Europe is a tough ask. I'd be amazed if we don't break the 50pt barrier and like you would be more than happy with another 11 pts. what an amazing season that would mean. 

Great place to build for next year. 

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10 hours ago, AvfcRigo82 said:

Yep, we have too many tough games 'on paper' and we're equally expecting a lot from the teams above us to also drop points.

As much as I would like us to reach a European place this season, sadly I don't think it's now possible.

Ignoring the European place discussion how do you guys even predict how we are going to do?

Knowing us this season we are just as likely get more points against the big teams as the smaller teams, we could also go on an unbeaten run or lose most of the games.  

Aside from Man City, looking at our opposition over the final months they aren’t stable/predictable teams with results either.  

My prediction of points is between 0-27 points 😉

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12 hours ago, AvfcRigo82 said:

I cannot see it happening unfortunately, I don't think we will even qualify for Europa League.

I think we will be pick up a maximum of 8-10pts from our remaining games looking at our run in.

I think we have left ourselves too much to do and this comes from dropping silly points from teams much lower than us in games we should have won.

But then this ignores the 3pts against Liverpool, 3pts against Leicester, the double over arsenal. We've beat wolves and Leeds as well. 

Yes we've dropped points in games we'd expect to win, but we've also picked up plenty of points in tough games. 

That seems to be covinently ignored. 

Edited by DCJonah
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Just now, DCJonah said:

Europe is a tough ask. I'd be amazed if we don't break the 50pt barrier and like you would be more than happy with another 11 pts. what an amazing season that would mean. 

Great place to build for next year. 

and lower 50 points would be a top ten position in the last five years (haven’t looked any further back), which is great progression from last year.

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58 minutes ago, DCJonah said:

But then this ignores the 3pts against Liverpool, 3pts against Leicester, the double over arsenal. We've beat wolves and Leeds as well. 

Yes we've dropped points in games we'd expect to win, but we've also picked up plenty of points in tough games. 

That seems to be covinently ignored. 

It's not ignoring anything.

I'm talking about the teams LOWER than us Jonah.. not higher.

We would be in a much better position and already in the mix for Europe right now had we taken maximum points against Sheff Utd and Burnley and not dropped points against Newcastle and Brighton.

2pts from those four games since the turn of the year that should have been 12 if we are thinking of top 7 finishes.

We may well have picked up points in tough games against the "top six" opposition but it counts for nothing if we cannot beat teams in the bottom six!

I hope that make sense to you.

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1 hour ago, nick76 said:

Ignoring the European place discussion how do you guys even predict how we are going to do?

Knowing us this season we are just as likely get more points against the big teams as the smaller teams, we could also go on an unbeaten run or lose most of the games.  

Aside from Man City, looking at our opposition over the final months they aren’t stable/predictable teams with results either.  

My prediction of points is between 0-27 points 😉

Based on the last 10 or so games we have looked mediocre and looking at our upcoming fixtures mainly.

You just have to look at the recent game at Fulham to see we were largely shite for 70 minutes.  Fulham!!

Don't get me wrong, I would love to see us finish higher than we currently are and finish in a European place of some sort but it's a big ask and combined with who we have left to play along with expecting the teams above us to also drop points is a big ask.

Not impossible, but I don't think it's possible either.

It may have been had we not dropped silly points to the lower six teams which is a shame and undone our hard work from earlier in the season.

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10 minutes ago, AvfcRigo82 said:

Based on the last 10 or so games we have looked mediocre and looking at our upcoming fixtures mainly.

You just have to look at the recent game at Fulham to see we were largely shite for 70 minutes.  Fulham!!

Don't get me wrong, I would love to see us finish higher than we currently are and finish in a European place of some sort but it's a big ask and combined with who we have left to play along with expecting the teams above us to also drop points is a big ask.

Not impossible, but I don't think it's possible either.

It may have been had we not dropped silly points to the lower six teams which is a shame and undone our hard work from earlier in the season.

Dont get me wrong, I'm agreeing or disagreeing with you I just find it incredibly difficult to guess how we are going to do until the end of the season.  We have been poor for the last 10 games but if the games before that if you said to us we would have been as poor as we have been then you would've laughed.  Yes we were all expecting some poor form but we performances and results have been low.  So form can change and that last 15 minutes might have been a kick up the butt or maybe not.  Whose knows when Jack is back, maybe this week, maybe not before the end of the season.  The teams we are playing aside from Man City while some are above us arent exactly consistent are they and Liverpool have lost the last six at home which gives us hope but obviously Villa always like to give a helping hand to out of form players or clubs. I could easily see us going on good points haul, just as easy a getting very little points haul just like I can see the teams we play having awesome games or poor games.  I dont think we'll get Europe at all, i think that is beyond us but at the same time I have no idea what points range we'll get given us and our opposition....we could easily get anywhere between 6 and 21 points because we dont seem to do things in halves do we.

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24 minutes ago, AvfcRigo82 said:

It's not ignoring anything.

I'm talking about the teams LOWER than us Jonah.. not higher.

We would be in a much better position and already in the mix for Europe right now had we taken maximum points against Sheff Utd and Burnley and not dropped points against Newcastle and Brighton.

2pts from those four games since the turn of the year that should have been 12 if we are thinking of top 7 finishes.

We may well have picked up points in tough games against the "top six" opposition but it counts for nothing if we cannot beat teams in the bottom six!

I hope that make sense to you.

No not really. You get 3 pts for a win, regardless of who it is against. And like a lot of midtable teams we've gained some where we predicted none and lost where we predicted all 3.

It comes back to the consistency within the squad. Some think we should already have it, others acknowledge its going to be a few more years of building. 

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with where we are right now, top 10 would be a success imo.

Yes we could finish 8th or 9th with a good run, but if our current form continues we could easily be 12th, 13th etc.

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23 minutes ago, MaVilla said:

with where we are right now, top 10 would be a success imo.

Yes we could finish 8th or 9th with a good run, but if our current form continues we could easily be 12th, 13th etc.

Recent form

3 wins in 9 or

5 wins in 11 or

5 points in 4 games or

8 points in 6 games.

We have been really poor of late but however you slice it even in current form we should still hit 54 points with 9 more games on current form.  That would easily get us a top ten position. If we jump out of the bad form like the last 15 mins the  54 points is well within our reach.

 

Edited by nick76
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