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Summer transfer window 2021


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2 hours ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

And this is my fear about this stubborn ( Must be British or British based ) thing - If any truth to links.

You start at the likes of Beundia, ESR, Ward Prowse, then end up with the likes of Cantwell and Winks if first choices don't go through.

As I've previously said, I'd much rather invest in top tier foreigners, even if they take more time to settle, than to end up with the likes of Josh King, for example. 

I appreciate the principle, but it's highly restrictive IMO.

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22 minutes ago, Laughable Chimp said:

Since the discussion has been recently dominated by Tammy talk, I was curious as to how Tammy stacks up in terms of other forwards in the league last season in terms of pure offensive output. So I use some stats to do a crude ranking of center forwards based on their last season performance. Just a basic addition of goals scored per 90(obviously goal scoring ability) and xA per 90(chance creation essentially) and a ranking based on this stat.. I'm using understat for these stats. To qualify, the player must be mainly play as a center forward and has played at least 1000 minutes last season.

  Player Goals Minutes Goals/90 xA/90 Goals/90 +xA/90 Goals Contributed
1 Kelechi Iheanacho 12 1452 0.74 0.22 0.96 32
2 Harry Kane 23 3097 0.67 0.22 0.89 30
3 Edinson Cavani 10 1355 0.66 0.15 0.81 27
4 Alexandre Lacazette 13 1939 0.60 0.1 0.70 23
5 Callum Wilson 12 2079 0.52 0.13 0.65 22
6 Jamie Vardy 15 2848 0.47 0.16 0.63 21
7 Patrick Bamford 17 3085 0.50 0.11 0.61 20
8 Michail Antonio 10 1993 0.45 0.14 0.59 20
9 Tammy Abraham 6 1027 0.53 0.06 0.59 20
10 Danny Ings 12 2200 0.49 0.09 0.58 19
11 Dominic Calvert-Lewin 16 2878 0.50 0.07 0.57 19
12 Gabriel Jesus 9 2053 0.39 0.16 0.55 18
13 Danny Welbeck 6 1551 0.35 0.19 0.54 18
14 Christian Benteke 10 1824 0.49 0.03 0.52 17
15 Ollie Watkins 14 3330 0.38 0.14 0.52 17
16 Wilfried Zaha 11 2615 0.38 0.13 0.51 17
17 Che Adams 9 2685 0.30 0.18 0.48 16
18 Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 10 2333 0.39 0.09 0.48 16
19 Roberto Firmino 9 2882 0.28 0.19 0.47 16
20 Chris Wood 12 2765 0.39 0.07 0.46 15
21 Timo Werner 6 2605 0.21 0.23 0.44 15
22 Neal Maupay 8 2526 0.29 0.15 0.44 14
23 Allan Saint-Maximin 3 1578 0.17 0.23 0.40 13
24 Anthony Martial 4 1494 0.24 0.16 0.40 13
25 Aleksandar Mitrovic 3 1369 0.20 0.19 0.39 13
26 Fabio Silva 4 1341 0.27 0.08 0.35 12
27 Callum Robinson  5 1580 0.28 0.06 0.34 11
28 David McGoldrick 8 2409 0.30 0.04 0.34 11
29 Richarlison 7 2883 0.22 0.11 0.33 11
30 Joelinton 4 2006 0.18 0.11 0.29 10

 

I'll let other people draw the conclusions they want from it themselves. I'll just say some stuff. Firstly, anyone not on the list either didn't fit the above criteria, or are probably too shit for me to have bothered including them.

Secondly, the goals contribution column was a neat idea I thought of mid-way doing this. I considered that looking at things in terms per 90 sometimes obscures the actual contribution to the team so in the goals contributed section, I assumed every player played 3000 minutes and see how many goals would've resulted from their Goals/90 +xA/90 stat assuming their xA actually resulted in an actual assist. 3000 minutes is actually a pretty high value I chose to try and put a reasonable upper bound to the difference we would be able to see in the final goals contribution from differences in their Goals/90 +xA/90 stat. Most forwards don't reach that many minutes, some don't even reach half that.

Thirdly, obviously there are many caveats to a crude index like this but I will point out one I feel worth mentioning the most. The more minutes a player plays, the less "extreme" their average values become. In this case, since we're looking at the top forwards, the values are on the high end of the spectrum. Adding more minutes will likely decrease their goals scored per 90 and xA per 90 rate bringing their rates down. This may be why 3 of the top 4 players in this list played less than 2000 minutes and why Harry Kane is considered better than all of them since he's the only one there who actually maintained his rate despite playing more than 3000 minutes. That said, for all we know it could also be the case that the likes of Iheanacho, Cavani and Lacazette could maintain their rates if they actually were given more minutes but there's no way to know for certain.

 

Good work, but something wrong in the algorithm that makes Wellbeck (amongst others) better than Watkins.

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3 hours ago, WallisFrizz said:

As if by magic…Telegraph on Twitter say

Transfer notebook: Aston Villa express interest in James Ward-Prowse and also monitoring Harry Winks and Todd Cantwell

Thats about it, no basis to it, just that. Also mention that Roma want Douglas Luiz.

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2 hours ago, paul514 said:

To try and get this off Abraham chat….

Who would you sign if you had 200 million NET football manager style?

I’ll start…..

RB Max Aarons 30m

CB Nikola Milenkovic 20m 

LB Owen Wijndal 15m

DCM Teun Koopmeiners 15m

DCM Manuel Locatelli 35m

WF Mikel Oyarzabal 65m

ST Eduoard 20m

Total 200m

Sell

Guilbert 5m

Hourihane 4m

Nakamba 10m

El Ghazi 15m

Total 34m

Leaves you with enough for a back up keeper and an attacking midfielder if you want 

Anything to stop the Abraham chat

Thanks for changing the subject but

Milinkovic-Savic will do for me, whatever the cost

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35 minutes ago, villanmac said:

Harry Winks is **** shit 

ooh ohh let me guess!

is the 4 letter word "good"?

Harry Winks is "good shit"!?!?!?

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3 minutes ago, rubberman said:

Good work, but something wrong in the algorithm that makes Wellbeck (amongst others) better than Watkins.

You will score goals at a higher rate as a substitute than as a 90 minute player. First you are playing against tired legs which means there will be mroe chances. And also your team will likely be trying to score if they are bringing on an attacking substitute. 

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3 minutes ago, Jas10 said:

Thanks for changing the subject but

Milinkovic-Savic will do for me, whatever the cost

200 mil on top of emi huendia? Oyarzabal and Milinkovic savic would see us as a top 4 team. 

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Interesting that winks has been linked to athletico Madrid yet is no better than Westwood in some peoples ways … hmm it’s almost like we do not appreciate the technically gifted playmakers as much as the Spanish, Italians and French. 

I mean he is not a player I overly covet nor do I feel we currently need but to call him shit is a bit OTT. 

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7 minutes ago, MotoMkali said:

You will score goals at a higher rate as a substitute than as a 90 minute player. First you are playing against tired legs which means there will be mroe chances. And also your team will likely be trying to score if they are bringing on an attacking substitute. 

Are you Beaky by any chance?

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Not sure how Cantwell is anything like a signing Lambert would have made, we didn't have the money to make such signings when Lambert was manager.

If anything Cantwell would be typical of the kind of signings we've been making over the last couple of transfer windows, Mings, Konsa, Cash, Targett, Buendia, and Watkins all had a similar profile, that is players that have previously had a very good season in the championship.

When you think about it despite all the money we've spent we haven't really made what'd call a big name signing as such... Edit: which when you look at some of our players now and the reputation that they've since developed it shows you how well we've done in the transfer market.

 

Edited by useless
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1 minute ago, PieFacE said:

Don't really like the idea of signing Cantwell tbh. 

Cantwell always seemed a very decent player to me.Good engine and a consistent performer for Norwich.

May well be our second choice behind JWP.

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9 minutes ago, useless said:

Not sure how Cantwell is anything like a signing Lambert would have made, we didn't have the money to make such signings when Lambert was manager.

If anything Cantwell would be typical of the kind of signings we've been making over the last couple of transfer windows, Mings, Konsa, Cash, Targett, Buendia, and Watkins all had a similar profile, that is players that have previously had a very good season in the championship.

When you think about it despite all the money we've spent we haven't really made what'd call a big name signing as such... Edit: which when you look at some of our players now and the reputation that they've since developed it shows you how well we've done in the transfer market.

 

More that I see him as a Matt Lowton or Ashley Westwood level signing. Not what we should be going for.

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6 minutes ago, MotoMkali said:

200 mil on top of emi huendia? Oyarzabal and Milinkovic savic would see us as a top 4 team. 

If we could get SMS for 50 to even 70m, it would be a massive signing for us and still great value.

As I’ve always said, it’s dreamland. But we’re talking hypotheticals here 😆

I don’t know about 200m, it’s too much to ponder 😆  Too many players and options out there and too many things to take into account. Having a massive transfer kitty doesn’t mean any player will sign.

A marquee or statement signing would help us attract more high calibre players though.

Not sure quite how good Oyarzabal is, highly rated & gets goals & assists but I haven’t been impressed by him at the Euros yet.

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Cantwell?  Winks??????  🤮

These are MON type signings that we'd pay a lot for, then they'd sit on the bench while someone as talented as Craig fookin' Gardner would keep them out of the side.  

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7 minutes ago, MarkLillis said:

Cantwell always seemed a very decent player to me.Good engine and a consistent performer for Norwich.

May well be our second choice behind JWP.

hmm, from what I've seen of him, i'm very unsure. I really don't think he's the type of player who would kick us on to the "next level". 

 

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