Summer transfer window 2021

[paul514]

I don't even know why we talk about Luiz going to Man City, it is something completely out of our control.... if he goes he goes.

We would just buy another player and hope it works out, by the time the window opens properly this will be done with one way or another.

[dont_do_it_doug.]

On 11/02/2021 at 09:06, KenjiOgiwara said:

People seem to be very confused by this clause.

Firstly if they acted on that clause, it would leave us with £ 30 - 35 million (which was the reported last year of the clause). Thus you'd have to add that to our transfer kitty. So yes, we DO own Douglas Luiz. 

Secondly, assuming Manchester City would act on that clause just to make some money and sell him for say £ 40 million. We'd just have to stomp up £ 5 - 10 million to actually own him with no clause attached. Assuming he'd want to stay at Villa Park. 

I think Dougie is great, but I also suspect Manchester City can throw money on far bigger names in the football world. So I think it's very unlikely they will pay for the release clause with the intent to play him. 

This seems by far the most likely outcome to all of this. We would for all intents and purposes 'buy out' the clause, and City would be mental not to push for it. They must know we would likely pay another £10-15m for him, if nothing else to save the headache of having to replace him. £30m total for a 22 year old with his potential is still a bargain, and City know it even if their aim is a little higher.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if this scenario played a part in the discussions when we signed him.

[nick76]

48 minutes ago, dont_do_it_doug. said:

This seems by far the most likely outcome to all of this. We would for all intents and purposes 'buy out' the clause, and City would be mental not to push for it. They must know we would likely pay another £10-15m for him, if nothing else to save the headache of having to replace him. £30m total for a 22 year old with his potential is still a bargain, and City know it even if their aim is a little higher.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if this scenario played a part in the discussions when we signed him.

But at the same time if Man City buy him for 30m and we decide not to buy him back, they are stuck with a player that won’t play for them, who will have a very large sign on fee and very decent wages.

I’m guessing that we have a plan if Man City actually want Luiz back permanently, that we have a list of players that might be better value for money.  I love Luiz but if Man City buy him for 30-35m it gives us options.  For example we’ve just brought Sanson for half the 30m value.  

In a depressed market there will be other bargains in the summer.  I don’t think Man City have much power here to make any money, I think they’ll lapse the clause without any movement in the current financial environment.

[Vive_La_Villa]

I personally think city won’t buy him back and he will remain our player after next summer. 

[Villaphan04]

I know that he's more than likely unrealistic and I don't know if the rumors of Dortmund selling are true but I'd spend a good amount of our budget on Gio Reyna if he's available and would come here. I don't think he would come here but wouldn't hurt to inquire

[Vive_La_Villa]

8 hours ago, Villaphan04 said:

I know that he's more than likely unrealistic and I don't know if the rumors of Dortmund selling are true but I'd spend a good amount of our budget on Gio Reyna if he's available and would come here. I don't think he would come here but wouldn't hurt to inquire

Hadnt heard of him so googled and see his is 18 and played 34 games for Dortmund already!  Doesn’t sound like he would be cheap.  

Edited February 13, 2021 by Vive_La_Villa

[paul514]

3 hours ago, dont_do_it_doug. said:

This seems by far the most likely outcome to all of this. We would for all intents and purposes 'buy out' the clause, and City would be mental not to push for it. They must know we would likely pay another £10-15m for him, if nothing else to save the headache of having to replace him. £30m total for a 22 year old with his potential is still a bargain, and City know it even if their aim is a little higher.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if this scenario played a part in the discussions when we signed him.

What is in it for Luiz? Instead of giving them 10m for him we could give some of it to the player not to sign... this is a situation with a never ending amount of variables.

[KenjiOgiwara]

6 hours ago, Villaphan04 said:

I know that he's more than likely unrealistic and I don't know if the rumors of Dortmund selling are true but I'd spend a good amount of our budget on Gio Reyna if he's available and would come here. I don't think he would come here but wouldn't hurt to inquire

One of the biggest talents in the world. Doesn't hurt to inquire indeed, but I can't see that happening.

[AvfcRigo82]

6 hours ago, Villaphan04 said:

I know that he's more than likely unrealistic and I don't know if the rumors of Dortmund selling are true but I'd spend a good amount of our budget on Gio Reyna if he's available and would come here. I don't think he would come here but wouldn't hurt to inquire

I think it could be unrealistic given how much they would demand for him.

He is the son of former Rangers midfielder Claudio Reyna.

 

[Vive_La_Villa]

Wrong thread.

Edited February 13, 2021 by Vive_La_Villa

[sne]

10 hours ago, Villaphan04 said:

I know that he's more than likely unrealistic and I don't know if the rumors of Dortmund selling are true but I'd spend a good amount of our budget on Gio Reyna if he's available and would come here. I don't think he would come here but wouldn't hurt to inquire

There is a lot of really talented young players coming out of North America (or at least from those nationalities) atm, most of them have already been snapped up by big clubs and will be difficult or impossible to get.

The likes of Reyna, Jonathan David, Pulisic, Weston McKennie, Tyler Adams, Dest, Weah, Alphonso Davies and so on are unrealistic-impossible but I'm sure there are others.

Read a piece a few days back about a kid named Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty who has just been called up to the Canadian national side and at only 16 makes him their youngest player ever beating the previous record holder Alphonso Davies. Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty is still playing for Toronto in the MLS and obviously I've never watched him but I bet he's someone we actually could get. (Edit: Apart from Brexit potentially putting a spanner in the works)

Franchises like Red Bull and City obviously has an advantage here with their multiple clubs in the US and in Europe but I hope we at least scout North America and their national sides because they are bringing up interesting players these days.

Edited February 13, 2021 by sne

[Zatman]

9 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Hadnt heard of him so googled and see his is 18 and played 34 games for Dortmund already!  Doesn’t sound like he would be cheap.  

He has marketable value as well. World Cup 2026 is in the US he could be the face of the tournament. Even if he wanted to come Dortmund are sitting on a potential goldmine 

[dont_do_it_doug.]

10 hours ago, nick76 said:

But at the same time if Man City buy him for 30m and we decide not to buy him back, they are stuck with a player that won’t play for them, who will have a very large sign on fee and very decent wages.

I’m guessing that we have a plan if Man City actually want Luiz back permanently, that we have a list of players that might be better value for money.  I love Luiz but if Man City buy him for 30-35m it gives us options.  For example we’ve just brought Sanson for half the 30m value.  

In a depressed market there will be other bargains in the summer.  I don’t think Man City have much power here to make any money, I think they’ll lapse the clause without any movement in the current financial environment.

It will be negotiated in advance. The odds on Villa screwing City over by calling their bluff, or vice versa, are incredibly slim. That is certainly not how I expect our club to operate.

You're right in that it only really works if Villa think he is worth more than the £15m already paid in order to keep him, but I'm reasonably confident they will and everyone involved knows it. It'll be a case of how much more. 

[dont_do_it_doug.]

8 hours ago, paul514 said:

What is in it for Luiz? Instead of giving them 10m for him we could give some of it to the player not to sign... this is a situation with a never ending amount of variables.

As far as I understand it Luiz doesn't have a choice. If Man City want him and pay the required fee his registration is automatically transferred. Us paying him more money won't negate that. 

It *might* be the case that if we put him on £120k a week, Man City would have to pay him that wage in order to take over his registration and they would be reluctant to pay that for a squad player no doubt. That could be one loophole, as it were. 

[nick76]

17 minutes ago, dont_do_it_doug. said:

It will be negotiated in advance. The odds on Villa screwing City over by calling their bluff, or vice versa, are incredibly slim. That is certainly not how I expect our club to operate.

You're right in that it only really works if Villa think he is worth more than the £15m already paid in order to keep him, but I'm reasonably confident they will and everyone involved knows it. It'll be a case of how much more. 

1) I wasn’t advocating calling there bluff, I was suggesting that if Man City try to activate that clause for 30-35m and want Villa to instead give them 10m (for arguments sake) to nullify the clause instead, then Villa might have better options, take the 30m and buy other players instead.

We all love Luiz, we want him to stay but if any of our scouting has identified players of great value (like Sanson) in this depressed market then we might be wise to take that 30-35m and buy those players with that money. 
 

2) while I agree we don’t/shouldn’t want to screw over Man City, if they activate the clause trying to screw us?  Yes it’s a business clause, I have issue in that but the point of the clause really was if he was so good that Man City could buy at a cheap/reasonable price to put back in their team.

The whole “we want to make a quick buck” is screwing us in a business sense.  Happy from a business sense but it’s still screwing us so why wouldn’t we play hardball because we also know for it to be of value to Man City then once they buy him, pay him signing on fees and then termination fee of his new man city contract, they have to be selling him for ~10m more than 30-35m and it’s very unlikely, especially in this market, that anybody would.  

So the only player is us and we will have options and Luiz will really only be worth the value Man City pay us for him hence why I think Man City will let the clause lapse and no money will exchange.

3) “That is certainly not how I expect our club to operate.” while I also agree with this I also think we won’t be easy pickings and we will negotiate hard and what’s in the best interest of Villa and we certainly won’t be throwing money away.  We many even walk away if Man City activate it or try to going back to my point 1 above.

[dont_do_it_doug.]

22 minutes ago, nick76 said:

1) I wasn’t advocating calling there bluff, I was suggesting that if Man City try to activate that clause for 30-35m and want Villa to instead give them 10m (for arguments sake) to nullify the clause instead, then Villa might have better options, take the 30m and buy other players instead.

It's not as step-by-step as you're making out here, surely? They wouldn't activate the clause THEN begin negotiations with Villa? They'd pick up the phone beforehand. 

Quote

2) while I agree we don’t/shouldn’t want to screw over Man City, if they activate the clause trying to screw us?  Yes it’s a business clause, I have issue in that but the point of the clause really was if he was so good that Man City could buy at a cheap/reasonable price to put back in their team.

Sure, if they want to activate the clause and keep him, or try and sell him at a profit elsewhere then that is entirely up to Manchester City. We've already agreed to the clause, there's no screwing over involved. 

Quote

3) “That is certainly not how I expect our club to operate.” while I also agree with this I also think we won’t be easy pickings and we will negotiate hard and what’s in the best interest of Villa and we certainly won’t be throwing money away.  We many even walk away if Man City activate it or try to going back to my point 1 above.

Absolutely, you can remain professional and resolute. The argument isn't that we roll over and let them tickle our tinkle to their hearts content. 

Edited February 13, 2021 by dont_do_it_doug.

[DCJonah]

1 hour ago, dont_do_it_doug. said:

As far as I understand it Luiz doesn't have a choice. If Man City want him and pay the required fee his registration is automatically transferred. Us paying him more money won't negate that. 

It *might* be the case that if we put him on £120k a week, Man City would have to pay him that wage in order to take over his registration and they would be reluctant to pay that for a squad player no doubt. That could be one loophole, as it were. 

I've heard this as well. Surely that can't be right though. How can a player have no say in a transfer? Would it stand up in court if Luiz kicked off? 

I can't see how it could. 

[dont_do_it_doug.]

23 minutes ago, DCJonah said:

I've heard this as well. Surely that can't be right though. How can a player have no say in a transfer? Would it stand up in court if Luiz kicked off? 

I can't see how it could. 

Contractual agreement? I'm not sure how this works vs human rights, but if it didn't work then these agreements would have no legal standing in the first place. In fact, football contracts themselves wouldn't be worth the paper they're printed on?

Again though, this is just as I understand it. I don't claim to actually know anything. 

Edited February 13, 2021 by dont_do_it_doug.

[alreadyexists]

41 minutes ago, DCJonah said:

I've heard this as well. Surely that can't be right though. How can a player have no say in a transfer? Would it stand up in court if Luiz kicked off? 

I can't see how it could. 

I suppose he already has had his say when he agreed to the contract in the first place? Obviously again I don’t know anything.

[nick76]

1 hour ago, dont_do_it_doug. said:

1 hour ago, nick76 said:

1) I wasn’t advocating calling there bluff, I was suggesting that if Man City try to activate that clause for 30-35m and want Villa to instead give them 10m (for arguments sake) to nullify the clause instead, then Villa might have better options, take the 30m and buy other players instead.

It's not as step-by-step as you're making out here, surely? They wouldn't activate the clause THEN begin negotiations with Villa? They'd pick up the phone beforehand. 

Apologies I wasnt trying to say they would do it step by step more how the conversation would go....they would say they will activate that clause for 30-35m (whatever the value is) unless Villa give them 10m (for arguments sake) to nullify the clause instead.  We might say, thanks for the offer but if they want to activate the clause we will take the 30-35m from them and look at other players to purchase (i.e. like we brought Sanson for half that price). 

We might not be prepared to pay anymore for Luiz just because Man City want some money.  While 10m to keep Luiz doesnt sound like a lot and it isnt for his talent, if Man City really want to activate the clause then the cost/benefit analysis may, depending on our scouting list, be more worthwhile to take 30-35m from Man City to spend on alternative players compared to spending 10m on keeping Luiz. 

The net (our budget balance difference) would be 40-45m (10m plus 30-35m) to spend on another player or two players, that's a lot of money!  I mean if we had a budget in the summer of 50m, then paying 10m for Luiz clause nullifying means we only have 40m to spend but if Man City take Luiz and give us 30-35m for him then we have a budget of 80-85m.  No idea what our summer budget could be, maybe 50m, maybe 100m, maybe more but a difference of 40m is a lot.