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5% CPI by Christmas?


snowychap
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What will the CPI figure be at Christmas?  

34 members have voted

  1. 1. What will the CPI figure be at Christmas?

    • 2% or under
      0
    • 2.1% to 3%
      5
    • 3.1% to 4%
      8
    • 4.1% to 5%
      11
    • Above 5%
      10


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UK food prices show 8.3% increase

Food prices in UK supermarkets and shops have risen by 8.3% since January, an index compiled for the BBC shows.

Meat and fish - up 22.9% - registered the biggest price increases for any one category in the survey, with fresh fruit and vegetables up 14.7%.

Retail analysts Verdict Research also found price rises of nearly 50% for some individual food items.

The figures come amid growing concern about the high cost of food, which is exceeding the official inflation rate.

The BBC Food Price Index compiled by Verdict is designed to track the cost of a typical trolley of UK food items.

It divides household supermarket purchases into 13 categories, including frozen foods, fresh fruit and vegetables, ready meals and dairy goods.

The index showed that during the eight months from January to August, meat and fish prices went up by 22.9%, making them the fastest-rising category.

General store-cupboard items, such as tinned foods, were the next most inflation-busting sector, registering a 15% increase, while fresh fruit and vegetables went up by 14.7%.

Seven items in the survey were found to have gone up in price by more than 40%.

A pack of four croissants was 47.4% more expensive and a 125g packet of ham went up by 45.4%, while the price of a medium-sized chicken increased by 41.9%.

The figures produced for the BBC are in line with other recently-published research showing the impact of food price rises on UK household budgets.

On Wednesday, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) said that food price inflation over the past year amounted to 10% - more than twice the official Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation rate of 4.4%.

The BRC figures indicated that the rate of increase for fresh food items was even higher, at 11.9%.

CPI inflation is likely to rise to about 5% in coming months, analysts say.

Concern about inflation has led the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to resist calls for cuts in interest rates, despite fears that the UK economy may be heading for recession if the cost of borrowing money does not come down.

On Thursday, the MPC voted to keep interest rates on hold at 5% for a fifth month.

PRICE RISES BY CATEGORY

[table]

[row][col]Meat and fish: [col]+22.9%

[row][col]Store cupboard/general: [col]+15%

[row][col]Fresh fruit/vegetables: [col]+14.7%

[row][col]Laundry/washing/paper: [col]+14.4%

[row][col]Drink: [col]+6.8%

[row][col]Pet food: [col]+6.5%

[row][col]Bakery/cereal: [col]+6%

[row][col]Frozen food: [col]+5.8%

[row][col]Household: [col]+4.4%

[row][col]Health & beauty: [col]+0.4%

[row][col]Ready meals: [col]-0.4%

[row][col]Dairy: [col]-1.8%

[row][col]Baby food: [col]-2.5%

[/table]

PRICE RISES BY ITEM

[table]

[row][col]Pack of four croissants: [col]+47.4%

[row][col]Original/Bolognese pasta: [col]+46.2%

[row][col]Ham (125g pack): [col]+45.4%

[row][col]Chicken breasts (skinless): [col] +42.6%

[row][col]Basmati rice (500g): [col]+42.1%

[row][col]Medium whole chicken: [col]+41.9%

[row][col]Mayonnaise (400g): [col]+40.6%

[/table]

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  • 2 weeks later...
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Consumer inflation reaches 5.2%

UK inflation hit 5.2% in September with energy bills behind much of the rise, official figures have shown.

However, analysts expect this to mark a peak, with inflation tipped to slow as a result of lower oil prices and reduced demand in a slowing economy.

The consumer price inflation (CPI) measure was up from 4.7% in August.

September's Retail Prices Index (RPI) figure - used to work out benefits and state pensions for the coming year - reached 5% from 4.8% a month earlier.

Pensions usually increase by 2.5% or headline RPI, whichever is higher - meaning the government faces paying out billions more in benefits and pensions.

'Diluting' effect

The recent economic downturn has seen recession replace inflation as the key risk to the UK economy.

Last week, the Bank of England cut interest rates to 4.5% from 5% in a co-ordinated worldwide move. The Bank added that the risks of inflation had moved "decisively" to the downside.

However the high inflation figure will be a reminder of the inflationary risk, observers say.

Increased food and energy prices this year have been blamed for taking inflation beyond the government's 2% target.

And the Bank predicts it will remain above that level until well into next year.

But reduced economic activity, rising unemployment and the continued difficulty in getting credit would curb spending and "dilute underlying inflationary pressures", said Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist with Global Insight.

"The recent marked retreat in oil and commodity prices will obviously help matters," he added.

Inflation was likely to fall as low as 1% by autumn 2009, and could turn negative if oil prices continued to fall, said Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics.

"CPI was once again rather worse than expected in September, but this will be the peak in inflation," he said.

"The key issue now is just how far and fast it will drop back as the food and energy effects which have pushed it up so sharply over the last year finally fade or go into reverse."

The annual rate of inflation for energy and other household bills reached 15% - the highest since 1989 - the Office for National Statistics said.

More expensive clothing, footwear, toys and games also added to the cost of living.

Food inflation slowed for the first time since March as the price of milk held steady, but the cost of meat continued to climb.

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this is scary in terms of a possible increase in the interest rates.

certainly no chance of a cut this side of Xmas, IMO. And a very real possibility of a raise .... :(

Aaahhhh - good old credit crunch.

half a % cut in the base rate the other day. I have a tracker mortgage :)

according to most "experts", inflation is likely to increase and peak around Xmas time, but is then likely to drop significantly next year, due to decreases in things like fuel and food.

One even suggested it could get almost as low as 1 % :lol: :shock:

can't se that TBH, but getting the IR back towards 2% and under would obviously be beneficial.

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Well the pensioners will enjoy their rise now that we have put the link back to inflation

I think the only pensioners smiling will be the ones who are gaga.

Pensions increased by headline RPI - 5%.

Prices rise by CPI - 5.2%.

Unfortunately neither of these represent the inflation rate that pensioners are labouring under - their rate is much higher than any increase in their pensions.

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yes snowy they are but has this comes down over the next year as predicted then their pensions still saty at 5% higher ...

you will never give the pensioners what they want that is totally unrealistic and too expensive unless you want to pay more NI ?

or have price controls ??

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with £250 winter fuel allowance and higher for over 80's that helps surely ??

for the winter months that is £60 a month roughly, more than I pay in total ...

it is not easy for anyone we all know that but this is the direct result of the fuel prices and these have dropped by nearly 50% and that will feed through

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with £250 winter fuel allowance and higher for over 80's that helps surely ??

By what level have gas and electricity charges increased since last winter?

Do you think that the increase in winter fuel allowance will be sufficient for them (especially if we have a severe winter)?

it is not easy for anyone we all know that but this is the direct result of the fuel prices and these have dropped by nearly 50% and that will feed through

Have these 'fed through' yet?

Are you predicting a reduction in energy suppliers prices before the winter ends?

If you really think that pensioners will not be struggling (and dying) this winter then I think you're living on a different planet, I'm afraid.

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no of course not but I guess you are calling for an increase int he allowance I would not particular mind this, say another £100 would do the trick

but to bring in the dyoing argument is wrong because pensioners die all the time and more during the winter, it is part of life but I can see the Daily Mail headlines now .... if we get one extra one.

there is no reason for any pensioner to die and maybe if as a soceity familes looked after each other miles better then it could be stopped better ...

don;t you think in our culture unlike say Asians (of all strands) we neglect our own flesh and blood ??

most pensioners who struggle have families to look after them you know ...

we have become too selfish

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no of course not but I guess you are calling for an increase int he allowance I would not particular mind this, say another £100 would do the trick

It might help.

but to bring in the dyoing argument is wrong because pensioners die all the time and more during the winter, it is part of life but I can see the Daily Mail headlines now .... if we get one extra one.

Can you leave the newspaper references to the other one, please.

It is not wrong to mention that pensioners will die this winter because of the cold and that more pensioners will die because of the increased cost of living and the increased cost of heating a home

don;t you think in our culture unlike say Asians (of all strands) we neglect our own flesh and blood ??

We absolutely do and it is shocking in the extreme.

Though why it should only be about flesh and blood, I don't know.

Perhaps we ought to look out for all in the community regardless of whether they are our relations?

most pensioners who struggle have families to look after them you know ...

I'm not sure that's true actually.

we have become too selfish

With that I do concur.

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It isnot wrong to mention that pensioners will die this winter because of the cold an that more pensioners will die because of the increased cost of living and the increased cost of heating a home

Quote:

they died though when fuel was cheap ...

as I said I bet you most have families and surely they could halpe, you seem to agree with that ?

I bet you would not let you mum or dad die in the cold alone ?

plenty do ...

the government has responsbilities of course to provide a base line of care but so do famililes and when I look at it is truely disgusting to see how some families neglect their own because it is too much effort.

I remember having my nan staying at our house for 6 months while she died, we would never put her into an home to die, not pleasant especially as I was doing a levels but something we had to do

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I just got notification that my Gas Bill has increased from £45/month to £75/month!!!! huge increase!!!

on a good point, my electricity has only increased from £19/month to £21/month, which still seems very low!

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ender my total bill is just £75 a month, do you have hot baths every day ?

me & my wife both have long hot showers every day.

My wife likes a warm house, so we have the heating on loads.

we live in a 3 bedroom house, no kids. We are with British Gas Dual Fuel.

So our total bill has been £64/month for the past year,

they have only just increased it to £96/month from this month onwards.

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they died though when fuel was cheap ...

They did. And more will die as a result of it being more expensive.

as I said I bet you most have families and surely they could halpe, you seem to agree with that ?

And as I said, I bet most of those who die don't have anyone to support them.

I agree that people should help other people - whether they be related or not. In my view that is what society should be about.

I bet you would not let you mum or dad die in the cold alone ?

You've not met my father. :winkold:

But seriously - no, of course not.

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