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Relegation chase 2020/21


MaVilla

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13 hours ago, Enda said:

Brighton odds of relegation are about 7/1 on Paddy Power. I think they’ll be in the mix so they seem like generous odds to me, if anyone fancies a flutter.

I think Brighton are a solid side with a strong defence and a striker who can score. I’d definitely be placing my money elsewhere. 

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2 hours ago, maqroll said:

Themselves, I suppose, and a sizable segment of their fanbase, most likely. It's not easy to sack a club legend like Parker.

He is hardly a club legend, played 100 games when his career was at an end including the relegation season. best thing he did was get them promoted through the play-offs. Great player for other teams but not Fulham 

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8 hours ago, maqroll said:

The Fulham board will be under immense pressure to keep their golden boy at the helm. 

Didn't give him a huge amount to spend, don't think there will be much pressure at all. screams of doing a norwich to me...taking the money and running

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8 hours ago, LondonLax said:

I think Brighton are a solid side with a strong defence and a striker who can score. I’d definitely be placing my money elsewhere. 

Fair enough. I don't think they'll be in the bottom three either, but that 7/1 are very generous odds 👍 

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3 hours ago, tomav84 said:

Didn't give him a huge amount to spend, don't think there will be much pressure at all. screams of doing a norwich to me...taking the money and running

It seems to me that they’ve got some signings, can’t say how good are they or even how much did they cost, but I think they were far from doing a Norwich in that aspect.

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I think if we beat Southampton this thread will be already quite close to being locked. 

10 wins see you safe 9 times out of 10. We would have 5 already inside 6 games. 

I am a bit of an optimist a lot of the time so I think by Christmas we will have 9 of them in the bag and the odd draw. 

estimate for Christmas Day will be 28 points, with 25 games still to play. 

Am sure we would muster 4 wins out of the last 25 to be safe. 

It took us 13 games to get 14 points last season. We could be a point ahead of that with 7 games in hand!!! 

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10 hours ago, Enda said:

Fair enough. I don't think they'll be in the bottom three either, but that 7/1 are very generous odds 👍 

Brighton will pick up enough points v other bottom half sides I think to be o.k.

I've said it before but I don't really get them. Loads of people say they're amazing and in fairness they do have some decent players like Lamptey, some of the CBs and Bissouma in midfield but they hardly ever seem to win any games, think they've won 4 times since mid December.

The narrative just 4 weeks ago was that Graham Potter was this amazing coach and DS was clueless so that viewpoint has taken a hit. FWIW I see them as similar which their championship records indicate e.g. Potter did a similar job at Swansea to what DS did at Brentford.

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Apparently Brighton are 6th in the league when it comes to the expected goals stat. Doesn't really matter much as they are not picking up points.

Fwiw we are 10th, Manure 17th and West Brom 20th

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5 hours ago, sne said:

Apparently Brighton are 6th in the league when it comes to the expected goals stat. Doesn't really matter much as they are not picking up points.

Fwiw we are 10th, Manure 17th and West Brom 20th

Understat have us 9th for total xG but we're 4th for xG/game.

Brighton are doing very well by every xG metric though, they're 4th in the xPTS table. Potter is the reverse Steve Bruce in terms of luck it seems.

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At least one of the teams that goes down is going to come as a bit of a surprise, at the start of the season we, Fulham and Albion were the three big favorites by most people's estimation, but because of our start we're no longer one of the favorites.

Some may remonstrate that it wouldn't be a surprise if either of Burnley or Sheffield United were relegated, but both of those finished comfortably in the top half last season, so you could have made a good argument for both of them surviving at the start of the season, you still could now, Burnley always get off to a bad start, and Sheffield United haven't been playing that bad.

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24 minutes ago, useless said:

At least one of the teams that goes down is going to come as a bit of a surprise, at the start of the season we, Fulham and Albion were the three big favorites by most people's estimation, but because of our start we're no longer one of the favorites.

Some may remonstrate that it wouldn't be a surprise if either of Burnley or Sheffield United were relegated, but both of those finished comfortably in the top half last season, so you could have made a good argument for both of them surviving at the start of the season, you still could now, Burnley always get off to a bad start, and Sheffield United haven't been playing that bad.

Brighton who barely win, Newcastle Who score by luck, Palace who are hit and miss. All of those are Much worse than us. As I’ve said we’re still not safe yet, but if we’re worrying then the whole bottom half should be. Apart from Top 6, Wolves, Leicester, Everton and Southampton. Then everyone should frar for themselves including Us, Leeds and West Ham who all showed how capable can be in this league. 

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That's my point because of our good start, it means that it's now more likely that someone like Newcastle, Palace, West Ham or Brighton could end up going. Although I don't declare us safe yet, still looking at the likes of Burnley, Sheffield United, West Ham and so on hoping that they lose their games.

 

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20 minutes ago, useless said:

That's my point because of our good start, it means that it's now more likely that someone like Newcastle, Palace, West Ham or Brighton could end up going. Although I don't declare us safe yet, still looking at the likes of Burnley, Sheffield United, West Ham and so on hoping that they lose their games.

 

If we recover after Leeds and got something out of Southampton while having a good performance, then I’d like to compete at Top half and not keep looking down. We will need to be above 36 points wether Burnley and Sheffield won or lost.

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scores stay the same then Sheffield United will have 1 point after 7 games even in our bad relegation seasons us and Derby had 4 points at this point of the season. I am still confident this will be a low points season. the bottom 4 havent won and Baggies is the only team to get a point of one of the other 16 teams

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When was the last time after 7 games the bottom 3 had 1 point? 
It’s not as Sheff Utd are playoff very bad, Burnley could always get back to form. Fulham might pick up some form but I think their defence will make it hard for them. We saved ourselves last season by improving our defence.

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If the bottom three continue at exactly the same rate - we already have enough points to keep us safe.

I'd be surprised if 32 doesn't keep you up this season - I wouldn't be surprised if someone stays up on 29 points.

This start between the four teams at the bottom really is unprecedented - it's the big story of this season so far - 6 points between them in 25 games.

 

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