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Relegation chase 2020/21


MaVilla

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5 hours ago, AvfcRigo82 said:

I would say now was a good time.

We are 16 points ahead of Fulham and they have played a game more than us.

I think we have more chance of winning the league than we have being relegated.

 

We have more points now than we did going into that Palace game which was the 35th of last season so done it 17 games earlier.

To have a serious danger of relegation we'd have to go on a worse run than anything we did in 15/16 and worse than what Sheffield United have done so far this season so bookies would probably price it higher than Leicester odds to win the league.

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Considering the current 16th placed team is averaging 1.1 PPG, and the team placed 17th is averaging 1 PPG, seems the bottom 3 will have to reach our points total at least to have any chance of staying up (35 points), and might even need late 30's to survive (ie: 38-40).

To put that in context:

  • Fulham will need to average 1.1 PPG over their remaining fixtures to achieve 35 points, they are currently averaging 0.7 PPG.
  • WBA will need to average 1.35 PPG to achieve 35 points, they are currently averaging 0.6 PPG.
  • Sheff Utd will need to average 1.6 PPG to achieve 35 points, the are currently averaging 0.4 PPG, they are improving recently, however the required avg. PPG of 1.6 is top 6 or top 8 form usually, so seems highly unlikely, even if they do pick up form wise. (even last year when finishing 9th, their PPG avg over the season was 1.42)

Considering Burnley, Newcastle & Brighton are 7/8 points ahead of the bottom 3 already, i think it really looks like its going to be the current three in the relegation zone to go down, barring a miracle.

Edited by MaVilla
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4 hours ago, MaVilla said:

Considering the current 16th placed team is averaging 1.1 PPG, and the team placed 17th is averaging 1 PPG, seems the bottom 3 will have to reach our points total at least to have any chance of staying up (35 points), and might even need late 30's to survive (ie: 38-40).

To put that in context:

  • Fulham will need to average 1.1 PPG over their remaining fixtures to achieve 35 points, they are currently averaging 0.7 PPG.
  • WBA will need to average 1.35 PPG to achieve 35 points, they are currently averaging 0.6 PPG.
  • Sheff Utd will need to average 1.6 PPG to achieve 35 points, the are currently averaging 0.4 PPG, they are improving recently, however the required avg. PPG of 1.6 is top 6 or top 8 form usually, so seems highly unlikely, even if they do pick up form wise. (even last year when finishing 9th, their PPG avg over the season was 1.42)

Considering Burnley, Newcastle & Brighton are 7/8 points ahead of the bottom 3 already, i think it really looks like its going to be the current three in the relegation zone to go down, barring a miracle.

Every year, there usually is one or mofe teams down there that goes on one of those runs that make the relegation battle a lot more tight. There's plenty of the season left to go so I wouldn't be too hasty in calling the relegation battle essentially over now.

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I'm surprised that Fulham haven't done more in the transfer window, at times they've played well but are drawing too many games, only Brighton have drawn more, a decent striker could turn some of those draws into victories, just winning their game in hand would put them within four points of Brighton, five of Burnley and Newcastle, and six of Wolves, the latter three have all lost just as many games as Fulham, but the problem for Fulham that they've only won two games all season.

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10 minutes ago, useless said:

I'm surprised that Fulham haven't done more in the transfer window, at times they've played well but are drawing too many games, only Brighton have drawn more, a decent striker could turn some of those draws into victories, just winning their game in hand would put them within four points of Brighton, five of Burnley and Newcastle, and six of Wolves, the latter three have all lost just as many games as Fulham, but the problem for Fulham that they've only won two games all season.

They have good keeper in Areola. Would expect a bigger club to come in for him at some stage

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Fulham have a number of decent players, they remind me a little of how Norwich were last season in that sense, and even have the same number of points that they had after 21 games last season, main difference being that Fulham's main problem is scoring whereas Norwich's was conceding goals, but both teams somehow had/have a bunch of players that would probably be welcome in better teams.

Looking it up Areola is actually on loan from Paris Saint-Germain, as are a number of their other better performers like Andersen, Lemina, Loftus-Cheek, and Lookman. Robinson, Anguissa, and De Cordova-Reid have all looked decent as well, but yet somehow as a team are still struggling, a signing like Wilson or similar would have made a big difference to them

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