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Title chase 2020/2021


villalad21

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4 minutes ago, Villarocker said:

 

As fans, do we want European football or to narrowly miss out? 

yes of course!!!

Nobody wants to narrowly miss out!

NSWE will invest further in the team if we qualify for the Champions League, or even for the Europa league.

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4 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

60 points should be the target.

Would get us a nice top 7 position I reckon.

Way we're going we could get there and still have 4-5 games left which would be hugely exciting.

Think 66/67 would be good for top 4. Depending on where they reschedule our Everton and Spurs games, we could really build up some momentum.

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28 minutes ago, Villarocker said:

Oh man, what a graph that is. I mean, that's exa tly what we need to monitor our progress. 

What I can't wait to see if how this team performs after it gets to 40 points. They will know they're safe so then it will be a case of will they just rest on their laurels or will they go for every game and try to finish in the European places. That's when we will see what they're made of. 

Realistically we're safe already. It'll probably only take 35/36 points to stay up this year at most, and we're already at 29 with not even half our games played. Tbh relegation has effectively been off the table since October.

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1 minute ago, Keyblade said:

Think 66/67 would be good for top 4. Depending on where they reschedule our Everton and Spurs games, we could really build up some momentum.

Would make a very exciting run in given we've got Spurs and Chelsea last two games.

I'm still looking more at 6th being amazing finish. Both Manchester clubs on around 40 points and hard to see either not winning 10 more games so they'll be low 70s as a minimum (and if Man. City are winning this league they'll more likely be 85 points).

Then you have Leicester looking really good but then they were in a strong position this time last year and lost form so see what they're like with Vardy's injury and europa restarting.

Above Chelsea with two games in hand is still pretty good as they'll drop more points in coming weeks with Lampard so good chance to build a decent lead over them.

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2 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

Would make a very exciting run in given we've got Spurs and Chelsea last two games.

I'm still looking more at 6th being amazing finish. Both Manchester clubs on around 40 points and hard to see either not winning 10 more games so they'll be low 70s as a minimum (and if Man. City are winning this league they'll more likely be 85 points).

Then you have Leicester looking really good but then they were in a strong position this time last year and lost form so see what they're like with Vardy's injury and europa restarting.

Above Chelsea with two games in hand is still pretty good as they'll drop more points in coming weeks with Lampard so good chance to build a decent lead over them.

Will be interesting to see how long Liverpool's bad form lasts. I imagine top 3 will be the 2 Manc clubs and Liverpool. It'll Leicester's 4th spot to lose, which they did last year. It's up to Everton, Spurs, us and Chelsea to sneak in at the back post. I kind of fancy us over all those teams if I'm being honest. We have a chance to pull the former 2 closer to us. Haven't been impressed by either even though they've been amassing the points. 

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1 minute ago, Keyblade said:

Will be interesting to see how long Liverpool's bad form lasts. I imagine top 3 will be the 2 Manc clubs and Liverpool. It'll Leicester's 4th spot to lose, which they did last year. It's up to Everton, Spurs, us and Chelsea to sneak in at the back post. I kind of fancy us over all those teams if I'm being honest. We have a chance to pull the former 2 closer to us. Haven't been impressed by either even though they've been amassing the points. 

Liverpool got Spurs, Man. City, Brighton and West Ham in their next 5 games so good chance their title bid will be all but over by then.

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19 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

60 points should be the target.

Would get us a nice top 7 position I reckon.

Way we're going we could get there and still have 4-5 games left which would be hugely exciting.

 

14 minutes ago, Keyblade said:

Think 66/67 would be good for top 4. Depending on where they reschedule our Everton and Spurs games, we could really build up some momentum.

 

if my maths is correct (which it might not be), if we look at like for like, ie: compare opponent home and away results for last year versus this year, we are currently 10 points better off (29 versus 19), where as the current league position compared to game week is 29 versus 15 last year.

so basically, if you extrapolate like for like results improvements this year versus last, that puts us on roughly 54 points at season end. (enough for 8th last year).

however our current PPG average puts us on roughly 64/65 points, which is the fine limit for top 6 (usual top 6 is 1.7 ppg avg), so i suppose the question is can we continue to maintain the 1.7, or are we going to maintain the like for like average which will end up lowering the avg. PPG by season end.

note: 1.7 ppg would place us top 6 in all but 1 of the last 6 years. 54 points would almost certainly get us top 8 or 9.

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We basically need 9 wins and 4 draws to get to 60 points.

Could do that just by being ultra consistant v bottom half e.g. wins v Fulham, West Brom, Palace, Newcastle, Sheffield United, Brighton and Burnley. There's 7 right there although it's pretty unlikely we'll win all those.

Shown we can hold our own v the top sides so while the wins have dried up recently I'm sure we'll win a couple more in the run in.

9 wins out of 22 really isn't that difficult, it's below 50% win ratio after all so down on what we've been doing first part of the season.

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I wouldn't want to see us get Europa league next season. We wouldn't be ready for it and it can really test you if you don't have depth and quality throughout the squad. We are an on upward curve though. Very well run club. We'll be playing in Europe again in a few years. I've no doubt.

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4 minutes ago, Enda said:

...which is to say we’re all sort of dreaming with the talk of Europe. Let’s be honest and admit even Top 10 would be a fantastic improvement on last year. 

Disagree, the league is very poor this year. Forget that we only stayed up by a point you have to reset our goals based on where we our half way through the season.
 

We have two game in hand on a lot of teams. We have a team that has proven it can mix with anyone, saying finishing top 10 would be fantastic simply isn’t true.

Fortunately our team is building real belief and a winning mentality and I can assure you if we finished 11 many of them would be very very dissapointed.

 

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11 minutes ago, Mark_1989 said:

Disagree, the league is very poor this year. Forget that we only stayed up by a point you have to reset our goals based on where we our half way through the season.
 

We have two game in hand on a lot of teams. We have a team that has proven it can mix with anyone, saying finishing top 10 would be fantastic simply isn’t true.

Teams who finish 17th have a 50% chance of relegation the next year... and we barely scraped 17th.

I agree completely with your bolded bit, but I think that improvement is sort of the point. Dean has brought us on leaps and bounds. It seems unfair to almost use that against him and say e.g. 12th would be disappointing. Six months ago I’d have bit your hand off for 12th.

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I would 100% take any form of European football, if we did it means we finished well in the league and will naturally attract better players.

We will no doubt invest in the summer again and the higher we finish means more players will be interested in coming to us.

Once we add 3-5 new players in the summer our squad will look much better in terms of depth.

The main risk is not performing well and having vultures trying to steal our assets.

Edited by MaVilla
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