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Title chase 2020/2021


villalad21

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Injuries will be what does for us. At the moment I can us being a match for anyone and at some point we will stop winning which will feel like a real kick in the teeth.

Our first 11 is as good as anyone else in the league. But past that we're really struggling. 

The season will depend on keeping players fit and avoiding injuries.

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2 minutes ago, darrenm said:

Injuries will be what does for us. At the moment I can us being a match for anyone and at some point we will stop winning which will feel like a real kick in the teeth.

Our first 11 is as good as anyone else in the league. But past that we're really struggling. 

The season will depend on keeping players fit and avoiding injuries.

Not really. We have a reasonably decent bench. Nakamba is a solid DM. He had a higher pass acc. Than Luiz last season and won more tackles and interceptions. Hourihane is a solid player and his free kicks and corners guarantee us goals. Traore is a technically an upgrade on trez and is a good ST. Wesley is an decent prem striker and will be good enough cover from Jan.

Guilbert was one of the better defensive full backs last season so is fine as back up. Engels and Hause are alright CBs and if they can stay fit are good enough cover. Liverpool are probably forced to play fabinho at CB now. Heaton is a solid prem keeper. The only position I'm really worried about is Lb because Taylor is not great and targett is injury prone. 

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9 minutes ago, MotoMkali said:

Not really. We have a reasonably decent bench. Nakamba is a solid DM. He had a higher pass acc. Than Luiz last season and won more tackles and interceptions. Hourihane is a solid player and his free kicks and corners guarantee us goals. Traore is a technically an upgrade on trez and is a good ST. Wesley is an decent prem striker and will be good enough cover from Jan.

Guilbert was one of the better defensive full backs last season so is fine as back up. Engels and Hause are alright CBs and if they can stay fit are good enough cover. Liverpool are probably forced to play fabinho at CB now. Heaton is a solid prem keeper. The only position I'm really worried about is Lb because Taylor is not great and targett is injury prone. 

Nearly every single player you mentioned there are bottom 6 premier league/top half championship players in my opinion. 

Our current 11 is a potential top 6 challenging team.  Each time you take a player out the current 11 and add one of those you mentioned our level slowly drops down the table. 
 

The only exception is probably Traoré and maybe Heaton . 

Edited by Vive_La_Villa
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32 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

100% this. It’s a crazy paranoia i’ve seen from fans.  The media love what sells. A wide open league is fantastic for them. Why on earth would they want the same old top 6 every season? Unless I’m missing something.

There might be a reason for them in that those 6 clubs now have got a very solid fan base that will buy their games. I guess most young kids today follow one of these 6 clubs and have done so for a few years. liverpool, manure and arsenal have of course done that for many years and are most likely the biggest and most followed clubs in England. chelski and citeh are probably not far behind. spuds might be a bit behind but has a solid fanbase as it it. If these clubs fall behind and starts to drop many of their followers might lose interest which makes Sky lose customers. Just a thought, and I don't fully buy that conspiracy but I don't think it's that far fetched.

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12 hours ago, nepal_villan said:

Leicester won the league with 23 wins.  We would need to win 19 out of our remaining 34 matches to achieve that win total.   

We've had a much better start to the season than Leicester did in 15/16/ They drew two of their first 4 and even after beating us 3-2 they didn't win the next two. They only went on 4-5 game winning run from late October in that season but everyone else being so inconsistant meant they got top and stretched a decent lead.

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2 hours ago, Folski said:

66 points was good enough for CL last year.

You'd imagine it could even be less this year, with Chelsea, United, Spurs, Arsenal, Wolves & Leicester all arguably in worse form this year than last year, can add City & liverpool to that list too.

Would be great if we could get out in front and have teams try and catch us.

 

I agree. As much as the title talk is lovely and at this point in time realistic it actually won't be long before europa or CL becames a serious and realistic target for the season with the points totals as you say. Burnley got europa a few years ago, Wolves finished 7th pretty comfortably in their first season up two years ago and Sheffield United were around that position for 3/4 of last season so I don't really see it as that unrealistic from what we've shown in first 4.

Get 7 points from next 3 games and that's 19 points so not far off a third of the points total you need for top 4 with still 31 games still to play. Of course as we saw in MON season keeping up the wins in February and March is the difficult part when tired legs start to become a big factor.

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2 hours ago, Folski said:

We should absolutely be looking to beat Leeds at home.

i believe they have injuries to 2 central defenders.

They're also playing tonight so you'd think it will be difficult for them to get their crazy high tempo game going twice in 96 hours particularly as Bielsa won't rotate much and Wolves game will take a bit out of them.

Little things like that are falling for us this season.

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Just had a look back....Burnley in 17/18 had 13 points after 9 games so bar a collapse we'll be on far more points than them come the end of our 9th game. They then won 6 of their next 8 games before interestingly not winning a single league game between 16th December and 3rd March. Finished 7th on 54 points.

Wolves got to 12 points after 7 games in 18/19. They then only won 1 of their next 7 fixtures so had 16 points going into December. Finished 7th on 57 points.

Already we've put ourselves in fantastic position to really push on and have around 30 points by the start of xmas period. What we used to average in the three MON 6th seasons.

One thing I would caution is that Everton look pretty strong to have a 60 + point season and Leicester won't be far off that if Vardy gets back and stays fit for majority of the season so could be one of those seasons where there isn't much points difference between 3rd-8th. In recent times the average points needed for europa football is 55 points but suspect that will be a little higher this season.

Edited by VillaChris
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15 hours ago, MaVilla said:

ok.........after 4 games (10% of PL games), we are 34% towards our total points tally from last year.............nuts. (12 vs 35)

if we only average last seasons avg. PPG (0.921) for the remaining league games, that puts us on 43 points (or 14th based on last seasons table) - obviously im hoping for a little more now :P

 

Finally, for stat nerds like me, after 10% of the season we have 44.5% of our total wins from last season (9 vs 4), for a bonus stat, after 4 games we are on 12 points, we didnt manage that points tally until after match day 13 last season.

After reading 10% of your post, it’s clear we have a 95% chance of winning the league

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Realistically we need better like for like replacements for AEG, Lansbury, Hause and one for Samatta. I still think we need a bit of pace because after Watkins we don't have that electric pace. Traore is quick but not electric. However Trezeguet and Grealish look quicker than last season. 

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14 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

Just had a look back....Burnley in 17/18 had 13 points after 9 games so bar a collapse we'll be on far more points than them come the end of our 9th game. They then won 6 of their next 8 games before interestingly not winning a single league game between 16th December and 3rd March. Finished 7th on 54 points.

Wolves got to 12 points after 7 games in 18/19. They then only won 1 of their next 7 fixtures so had 16 points going into December. Finished 7th on 57 points.

Already we've put ourselves in fantastic position to really push on and have around 30 points by the start of xmas period. What we used to average in the three MON 6th seasons.

One thing I would caution is that Everton look pretty strong to have a 60 + point season and Leicester won't be far off that if Vardy gets back and stays fit for majority of the season so could be one of those seasons where there isn't much points difference between 3rd-8th. In recent times the average points needed for europa football is 55 points but suspect that will be a little higher this season.

Leicester fans are not so optimistic about there teams chances. Without Vardy theres not much threat. Surprised they didnt invest in another striker. 

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1 hour ago, Zatman said:

Just to remind people of the dark days, we have already won more games than our infamous 2015/16 season and are 5 points off our final total for that season :P 

Wow, dark days indeed. 

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