The AVFC FFP thread

[fightoffyour]

3 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

Imagine though we go and spend 20m in january and then dont go up? We would bw utterly screwed and i dont think we would ever get back up. I prefer telhe approach we have taken this season 

 

31 minutes ago, TrentVilla said:

It’s not about if you make a loss or profit in any given year. It’s about the accumulation of profit or loss over the rolling last three years on a rolling basis.

So if we're on the brink of FFP spending right now, can't our January outlay this season match that of 3 years ago? 

[Demitri_C]

6 minutes ago, fightoffyour said:

 

So if we're on the brink of FFP spending right now, can't our January outlay this season match that of 3 years ago? 

I am wondering this.

So we had 70m losses season 1

Season 2 lossses of 30m

Season 3 losses of 10m are we still fined?

 

[Demitri_C]

6 minutes ago, fightoffyour said:

 

So if we're on the brink of FFP spending right now, can't our January outlay this season match that of 3 years ago? 

I am wondering this.

So we had 70m losses season 1

Season 2 lossses of 30m

Season 3 losses of 10m are we still fined?

 

[TrentVilla]

Not really following the logic on the above posts.

The rule is that a Championship club can lose £13m per season, if the owner is injecting equity to cover the loses OR £5m if not.

The losses are assessed over 3 seasons, the two previous seasons and the current season including a projection for the remainder of the season beyond the submission date of 1st March.

To aid those clubs relegated from the PL to the Championship additional losses are allowed. For a PL season a loss of £35m is allowed.

So... last season we could include figures from our last two PL seasons and last season in the Championship. Which meant we could lose up to £83m over the three seasons.

This season we can include our last season in the PL, last season and this season. So a combined maximum loss of £63m.

But If we don’t go up this season we can no longer count on any time in the PL so it drops to £39m.

Combine that drop with the prospect of decreasing parachute payments and it doesn’t paint a pretty picture.

I’ve been saying it for a while, we absolutely need to go up this season and my view on Bruce and criticism of him particularly earlier in the season is very much with this in mind.

[omariqy]

2 minutes ago, TrentVilla said:

Not really following the logic on the above posts.

The rule is that a Championship club can lose £13m per season, if the owner is injecting equity to cover the loses OR £5m if not.

The losses are assessed over 3 seasons, the two previous seasons and the current season including a projection for the remainder of the season beyond the submission date of 1st March.

To aid those clubs relegated from the PL to the Championship additional losses are allowed. For a PL season a loss of £35m is allowed.

So... last season we could include figures from our last two PL seasons and last season in the Championship. Which meant we could lose up to £83m over the three seasons.

This season we can include our last season in the PL, last season and this season. So a combined maximum loss of £63m.

But If we don’t go up this season we can no longer count on any time in the PL so it drops to £39m.

Combine that drop with the prospect of decreasing parachute payments and it doesn’t paint a pretty picture.

I’ve been saying it for a while, we absolutely need to go up this season and my view on Bruce and criticism of him particularly earlier in the season is very much with this in mind.

Which is why I wondered if we would throw some money at it in January as we are **** either way.

[fightoffyour]

8 minutes ago, TrentVilla said:

Not really following the logic on the above posts.

The rule is that a Championship club can lose £13m per season, if the owner is injecting equity to cover the loses OR £5m if not.

The losses are assessed over 3 seasons, the two previous seasons and the current season including a projection for the remainder of the season beyond the submission date of 1st March.

To aid those clubs relegated from the PL to the Championship additional losses are allowed. For a PL season a loss of £35m is allowed.

So... last season we could include figures from our last two PL seasons and last season in the Championship. Which meant we could lose up to £83m over the three seasons.

This season we can include our last season in the PL, last season and this season. So a combined maximum loss of £63m.

But If we don’t go up this season we can no longer count on any time in the PL so it drops to £39m.

Combine that drop with the prospect of decreasing parachute payments and it doesn’t paint a pretty picture.

I’ve been saying it for a while, we absolutely need to go up this season and my view on Bruce and criticism of him particularly earlier in the season is very much with this in mind.

Thanks for clearing it up. I was thinking of a 3-year rolling balance sheet like Bruce's 1-year rolling contract. But thinking about it, that would be much, much more difficult to keep track of (and easier to cook too I guess) than this already complicated system.

[TrentVilla]

9 minutes ago, omariqy said:

Which is why I wondered if we would throw some money at it in January as we are **** either way.

I think we might.

Way I see it is we are okay this year but if we don’t go up then the summer is going to see us have to dramatically reduce our spending.

Which is why the likes of Terry came in on a one year deal.

[wilko154]

43 minutes ago, TrentVilla said:

Not really following the logic on the above posts.

The rule is that a Championship club can lose £13m per season, if the owner is injecting equity to cover the loses OR £5m if not.

The losses are assessed over 3 seasons, the two previous seasons and the current season including a projection for the remainder of the season beyond the submission date of 1st March.

To aid those clubs relegated from the PL to the Championship additional losses are allowed. For a PL season a loss of £35m is allowed.

So... last season we could include figures from our last two PL seasons and last season in the Championship. Which meant we could lose up to £83m over the three seasons.

This season we can include our last season in the PL, last season and this season. So a combined maximum loss of £63m.

But If we don’t go up this season we can no longer count on any time in the PL so it drops to £39m.

Combine that drop with the prospect of decreasing parachute payments and it doesn’t paint a pretty picture.

I’ve been saying it for a while, we absolutely need to go up this season and my view on Bruce and criticism of him particularly earlier in the season is very much with this in mind.

Brilliant description there.

What happens if we go up this season? Come March 2019 do we have a combined maximum loss of £63m again as it will be 2 Championship & 1 Premiership seasons?

Or do promoted clubs have an allowance to catch up with the ridiculous money being thrown around the Premiership?

[TrentVilla]

4 minutes ago, wilko154 said:

Brilliant description there.

What happens if we go up this season? Come March 2019 do we have a combined maximum loss of £63m again as it will be 2 Championship & 1 Premiership seasons?

Or do promoted clubs have an allowance to catch up with the ridiculous money being thrown around the Premiership?

Totally different in the PL.

[Grasshopper]

FFP will F*** us regardless if we dont go up.

1 - We wont be able to financially compete with the 3 teams coming down from the PL

2 - We will be forced to cut our cloth accordingly i.e selling assets who want to play PL football. Thus decreasing the quality and depth of our squad (although some may think - get rid of the tossers)

3 - other teams in CH who are acustommed to the ffp (as they dont have the finances) will still have the potential to improve as every year they are within ffp means their finances are not used to re-balance there books, their finances are used to improve their squad.

4 - Tony may lose interest as he cant invest as and when needed without limitations.

Edited October 26, 2017 by Grasshopper

[limpid]

2 hours ago, wilko154 said:

Realistically though a 40 million fine would be preferable to dropping points and losing out on promotion...

This 40 million fine has been incurred from 2013/14, if QPR had established themselves in the Premiership it would have been a minor insignificance now.

40 million fine to be paid in 2021/22 after establishing ourselves in the Premiership with Tony Xia? I would take it

I don't think we'll be allowed to start playing in Scotland, however much we spend.

[Grasshopper]

The QPR situation is an interesting marker.

There are a number of considerations.

1 - QPR are in London - we all know that London is the dogs bollox and places like Brum is where the football world stops off for a coffee on their way through to Manchester & Liverpool.

2 - Footballs darling ‘arry really took them for a ride. Yet FFP are prepared to make an example of them?

3 - Add the fact that their owner is „Foriegn“ ( maybe they‘re not sure where the money come from).

4 - They actually got promoted from the CH to PL (PL being outside their control) only to come back.

5 - Lesta did virtually the same (foriegn owners) so Puell now has the chance to relegate them into the CH‘s hands.

I see it like this

No way they‘ll not make an example of us if they get half a chance.

The logic of „why fine a club 40mill whilst they‘re making a loss“ is not to F*** the club but to unable the owner putting the 40mill in to get promotion again.

[rubberman]

Also, the rules and punishments have changed since QPR got done.

From here...

Quote

Previously the Football League has only been able to either; fine promoted clubs (a fine the Premier League didn’t help them collect), or impose a transfer embargo for historic overspending (which always like a stable-door/horse scenario). With this change, a wide range of punishments are now available. Nothing is off the table; the Football League are now able to impose a points deduction during the current season, or demote a club from an automatic promotion position into the play-offs (or out of the play-offs altogether). Transfer embargoes are also available (with the earliest one potentially applying during the Summer 2017 Transfer window.

We have to submit our forecast for this season (to add to the last 2) on 1st March.  That needs to get us in the black (or rather not too deep in the red) for the combined three seasons to escape punishment.  Given we hope / expect to be in the promotion hunt we can't risk losing that through busting FFP which is very close so far...so Jan will be very quiet I expect. 

I think the EFL will be keen to use the demotion option to show they have teeth.

Edited October 26, 2017 by rubberman
moar

[TrentVilla]

 

I don’t think there is a huge amount to be gained with comparisons to the Q.P.R case at this point in time.

They effectively ignored/tried to circumnavigate the rules and hide from the punishment in the PL. Much has changed since then and our behaviour and actions are very different, I don’t think we will be in breach of it.

I do though think people need to be more aware of it and the pressing need for promotion.

[villa89]

5 hours ago, TrentVilla said:

Way I see it is we are okay this year but if we don’t go up then the summer is going to see us have to dramatically reduce our spending.

Basically the football league rules give the teams that are relegated down from the premier league two seasons to get promoted again. Otherwise they hit a FFP glass ceiling, really struggle to compete and guarantee that even if they do get promoted after the two seasons, chances are they'll be relegated again in short order. It's ingenious...or possibly completely stupid. 

Edited October 26, 2017 by villa89

[Villarocker]

4 hours ago, Grasshopper said:

FFP will F*** us regardless if we dont go up.

1 - We wont be able to financially compete with the 3 teams coming down from the PL

2 - We will be forced to cut our cloth accordingly i.e selling assets who want to play PL football. Thus decreasing the quality and depth of our squad (although some may think - get rid of the tossers)

3 - other teams in CH who are acustommed to the ffp (as they dont have the finances) will still have the potential to improve as every year they are within ffp means their finances are not used to re-balance there books, their finances are used to improve their squad.

4 - Tony may lose interest as he cant invest as and when needed without limitations.

I don't think it will be as bad as everybody thinks. Huddersfield didn't spend loads of dough and neither did Brighton. I know the likes of Leeds, Forest and Sheff Weds went down and struggled but that doesnt necessarily mean it will happen to us. 

You mention teams in the Championship being accustomed to being there and we aren't. We are Aston Villa Football Club - they aren't! We will still remain a big catch for all footballers willing to play at that level. 

Edited October 26, 2017 by villarocker

[Vive_La_Villa]

51 minutes ago, villarocker said:

You mention teams in the Championship being accustomed to being there and we aren't. We are Aston Villa Football Club - they aren't! We will still remain a big catch for all footballers willing to play at that level. 

Leeds fans used to say something similar and their achievements while in the Premier League were a lot bigger than ours.

[Grasshopper]

Sorry, I‘m not picking on you

2 hours ago, villarocker said:

I don't think it will be as bad as everybody thinks. Huddersfield didn't spend loads of dough and neither did Brighton.

They didn‘t have to, There managers, coaches & playerswere good enough to get them up. Something Bruce hasn‘t achieved.

2 hours ago, villarocker said:

I know the likes of Leeds, Forest and Sheff Weds went down and struggled but that doesnt necessarily mean it will happen to us. 

Those 3 prove that it can, especially if we let it.

2 hours ago, villarocker said:

You mention teams in the Championship being accustomed to being there and we aren't.

That wasn‘t what I meant. Whilst we are adjusting to what we are allowed to do financially - not just outspending everybody - the other clubs above and around us carry on re-investing season for season, we are having to cut back season for season.

2 hours ago, villarocker said:

We are Aston Villa Football Club - they aren't! We will still remain a big catch for all footballers willing to play at that level. 

And therein lies a major problem.

players come to us because of the name, AND the money.

If you go through our squad, it‘s quite alarming how much money has gone on transfer fee‘s &/or wages.

SJ - Came down a league, cost us pts last season contributing to our 13th position. Like night and day this season

RDL - Dropped a league aswell - injured 90% of his time here.

Chester - Dropped from PL too, Money well spent.

Terry - PL->Ch too, money well spent

Taylor - PL->Ch, money well spend (good deal aswell)

Adomah - PL->Ch Top assistor last season, great since back to replace Green on LW because he was replaced by

Elmo PL->Ch, Hasn‘t set Ch alight, replaced Hutton &/or Bree at RB because he was replaced at RW by

Snodgrass - PL->Ch not yet fit but loan fee & wages money well spent

Jedi - PL->Ch, Injured, money well spent........when fit

Whelan - PL->Ch so far, so shyte

Onomah - PL->Ch loan fee & wages money well spent

11 players on PL wages or high Ch wages

(can someone remind me why, even though we have 11 ex-PL players, we‘re not top of the league?)

I could go on with „best of the rest“ from this league - McC, Hourihane, Hogan & Lansbury (probably on a good wad too)

(and we‘re still not top of the league)

Next season, if we are still here, will see

SJ, Snodgrass & Onomah - Loans end (3players)

Terry, Samba, Hutton & Gaby - Deals end (4players)

Chester, Taylor, Adomah & Kodjia sold (4 players)

If we lose Hourihane & Lansbury too (2players)

We‘ll have to replace 13 players with Richards & the Academy

We‘ll be well and truly F******

Promotion this season is an absolute MUST.

 

[Jareth]

I don't mind FFP, we've done better this season with a smaller budget. Next season if we don't go up well it means it is time for the kids, and again I don't mind seeing a team composed of the exciting young talent that we have - were that to happen we'd also see a new manager, possibly someone like Clotet - might take a while but at least we'd have a brand new villa to watch and that's not a bad runners up prize if you are anti Bruce. 

[mrjc]

1 hour ago, Jareth said:

I don't mind FFP, we've done better this season with a smaller budget. Next season if we don't go up well it means it is time for the kids, and again I don't mind seeing a team composed of the exciting young talent that we have - were that to happen we'd also see a new manager, possibly someone like Clotet - might take a while but at least we'd have a brand new villa to watch and that's not a bad runners up prize if you are anti Bruce. 

Agree it's fine if we are within the rules (I hope it's been managed that way, and suspect it has on the basis of promotion).  Where it becomes less good is if we breach - which basically would mean we haven't stuck to our smaller budget and we face penalties.

If we don't get promoted, we must be incredibly tight against the rules...maybe next year, maybe in the next couple of years...I just don't see how we avoid a breach unless we drastically slash our wage bill.  Problem is, if we don't get promoted, how saleable are our best assets going to be...especially if buyers know we are in a position of needing to sell?

So if we stay down and breach we either (a) have to asset strip the squad or (b) take a big fine / points penalty.

I see what you mean and like the positivity, and actually I don't see FFP as completely a bad thing.  I think it does lead to, on average, more responsible running of clubs.  But I think we have gambled pretty heavily on the assumption we go up this season, and I can't see it going well if we don't.