Jump to content

Freedom for Tooting! And other similar nutty fringe communities


Recommended Posts

33 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

Genuine question, what would the Welsh economy be like if Wales was a separate entity?

 

As currently set up, paying to have water extracted for england, paying towards HS2, paying towards Westminster, paying ‘our share’ of borrowing decided by Westminster, no control over any significant tax raising, no control over any significant expenditure, no control over the central bank... an absolute car crash.

Reformed so as not set up as above, but set up as a fairly normal country with a fairly normal populace with a fairly normal infrastructure. It would be about the same as any other mid sized European country.  A perfectly average GDP.

The economics argument is fascinating, Ireland, Malta, Czechia, Singapore, pretty much anywhere you care to mention does not look economically viable ... right up to the point they become independent. Then, weirdly, it turns out they thrive without the old boss constantly ‘helping’ them.

 

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Moderator

Wales would be Europe's 30th biggest country by population.

I read that Wales as a nation runs a comparatively smaller deficit than the UK as a whole, but has higher levels of unemployment and struggles with the variety in its industry.

I guess in terms of economy you wouldn't really want to go the same was as Singapore and become a de facto corporate state masquerading as a nation, I know Wales does well in service industries and I presume still has a decent agricultural industry, I'd imagine that there would be a real need to develop a financial hub and to make decisions on whether you want to be a major arms supplier. Some of that would I imagine come down to whether you could make Wales a more attractive proposition to money than the UK is.

Would there be dispute over rights to the seas around Wales?

Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

Wales would be Europe's 30th biggest country by population.

I read that Wales as a nation runs a comparatively smaller deficit than the UK as a whole, but has higher levels of unemployment and struggles with the variety in its industry.

I guess in terms of economy you wouldn't really want to go the same was as Singapore and become a de facto corporate state masquerading as a nation, I know Wales does well in service industries and I presume still has a decent agricultural industry, I'd imagine that there would be a real need to develop a financial hub and to make decisions on whether you want to be a major arms supplier. Some of that would I imagine come down to whether you could make Wales a more attractive proposition to money than the UK is.

Would there be dispute over rights to the seas around Wales?

I can’t imagine there would be any dispute over seas, it would be the usual protocol on half way between land masses. I don’t think we’d claim everything within 100 miles of Barry island is ours because we’d end up with **** Portishead.

There’s nothing that’s can’t be sorted out amicably. What you’ve got to try and work out is, what’s the reason Wales has been so poor for hundreds of years. Is it because there is no natural resource? No slate, no coal, no water, no agriculture, no renewable energy sources, no labour force? is it because the people are intrinsically genetically pre disposed to being poor and can’t be educated? Or is it some other reason? if the people are bang average and the land is bang average then perhaps it’s been been mismanaged for 400 years? Now, who’s been in charge for the last 400 years?

Worth a punt at having a go at running it ourselves I reckon, and if after 400 years we’re no better off, I’ll admit I was wrong.

 

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Moderator
2 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

There’s nothing that’s can’t be sorted out amicably. What you’ve got to try and work out is, what’s the reason Wales has been so poor for hundreds of years

Again, a genuine question - has Wales been particularly poor for hundreds of years?

I can see lots of emotive reasons for independence, and from what I can gather, Wales puts more into the UK than it pulls out, but I'm interested in what a future independent Wales would look like other than for the initial bump.

The UK through England has settled on money and arms as our lead industries, what Wales decides would be interesting. I can't see finance-Wales as there'd be too much resistance from existing finance hubs, perhaps Wales could compete with Ireland to become a tech hub, there's some aerospace industry already in Wales, so that could develop, or maybe you could invite Mr Musk and become Eco-Wales - for me what makes Wales interesting is that (at least in my head) there's a pretty blank page on future economy because Wales doesn't have a 'thing' - but I guess the counterpoint to that is that Wales risks having to bend over to the occasional global manufacturer in order to stay afloat.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Moderator
1 hour ago, chrisp65 said:

As currently set up, paying to have water extracted for england, paying towards HS2, paying towards Westminster, paying ‘our share’ of borrowing decided by Westminster, no control over any significant tax raising, no control over any significant expenditure, no control over the central bank... an absolute car crash.

Reformed so as not set up as above, but set up as a fairly normal country with a fairly normal populace with a fairly normal infrastructure. It would be about the same as any other mid sized European country.  A perfectly average GDP.

The economics argument is fascinating, Ireland, Malta, Czechia, Singapore, pretty much anywhere you care to mention does not look economically viable ... right up to the point they become independent. Then, weirdly, it turns out they thrive without the old boss constantly ‘helping’ them.

In terms of UK Government spending, England is the worst off, Wales, Norn Iron, Scotland all get more per capita than England, even allowing for the bias towards London

Public spending by country and region - House of Commons Library (parliament.uk)

Quote

In 2019-20, public spending per person in the UK as a whole was £9,895. In England, it was £9,604 (3% below the UK average).  This compares with:

  • Scotland: £11,566 (17% above the UK average)
  • Wales: £10,929 (10% above the UK average)
  • Northern Ireland £11,987 (21% above the UK average).

Among the English regions, public spending per person was lowest in the East Midlands at £8,879 (10% below the UK average) and highest in London at £10,835 (10% higher than the UK average).

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN04033/assets/de0c678f-1c27-43a7-a774-2f685c341e83.png

The data shown are for public spending per person and are taken from HM Treasury’s Country and regional analysis: 2020, which contains more detailed information including spending by function (health, education etc).

So it's not all bad for Wales. It's hard to argue "we need it more" as well, when the less well off regions of England get far less.

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, blandy said:

In terms of UK Government spending, England is the worst off, Wales, Norn Iron, Scotland all get more per capita than England, even allowing for the bias towards London

Public spending by country and region - House of Commons Library (parliament.uk)

So it's not all bad for Wales. It's hard to argue "we need it more" as well, when the less well off regions of England get far less.

I haven’t said we need it more, I’ve said we could govern ourselves in an attempt to improve our lot.

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Moderator
36 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

I haven’t said we need it more, I’ve said we could govern ourselves in an attempt to improve our lot.

Sure. It was a response to the bit you said about how Wales was paying towards stuff, the reality being that England is effectively subsidising the other nations, overall. I suspect Wales would struggle to maintain spending levels if it goes it alone  I mean good luck n’all, but I’m inclined to think it would have a similar impact to Brexit, in terms of finances.  Talking maths, not politics.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • VT Supporter

An independent Wales would need to become a very different country very fast. It's not got a big population, a lot of it is empty, it's infrastructure is comparatively poor, it's economy is heavily focused around a couple of sectors, and it's comparatively underdeveloped.

There's definitely an argument to say all of that is supportive of going independent, and fair play to any Welsh person who fancies it (not something I'd have said 10 years ago), but I'm not sure I'd vote for it. They'd be better off pushing for more devolution. Hey most of the benefits of going alone with far fewer of the downsides.

Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, blandy said:

Sure. It was a response to the bit you said about how Wales was paying towards stuff, the reality being that England is effectively subsidising the other nations, overall. I suspect Wales would struggle to maintain spending levels if it goes it alone  I mean good luck n’all, but I’m inclined to think it would have a similar impact to Brexit, in terms of finances.  Talking maths, not politics.

 

Speaking generally now, not about your specific response. I don’t understand the double headed not being ‘allowed’ to leave and being reminded this is costing England money that it gives seemingly altruistically.

I’m not really too in to the emotive stuff. I’m not massively in to flags, or rugby, or thinking I’m particularly ‘proud’ of anything or resentful of anyone. I just look at the stats and think the system isn’t working and never has, but I live somewhere with an opportunity to change that, so I should. I don’t dislike anything about the rest of the U.K.. It’s just clearly not working out to our mutual benefit and never has, it’s not that I don’t like the current regime, it hasn’t worked pretty much ever. So  perhaps we concentrate on our bit and you guys can fix Cornwall and Cumbria. 

In the short term, we could look at reducing military spending. Wales doesn’t get a say in what it spends on the military, it is exempt from Barnet formula and dictated by Westminster. Wales currently spends double on the military what Ireland does. So reducing to Irish levels of military spend could be a starting point. It’s fascinating that we have a debt of gratitude for spending on something we don’t have a say in. How would we manage to finance such a large military without Westminster borrowing and going in to debt on our behalf? Heck, crazy idea.... spend less on the military rather than wondering where we’d raise the money.

Similarly, HS2 is outside Barnet formula, so Wales has had to pay £5 billion towards it from the Welsh infrastructure budget. So the budget is actively reduced, by others, to the permanent economic detriment of Wales. That is **** nuts. Our budget, used by others, to our permanent disadvantage and their permanent advantage. Which will, over time, result in them being able to suggest we are too poor and too poorly equipped to look after ourselves, and if they didn’t spend money generated in London and Birmingham and Manchester on our behalf we’d be even worse off. If that was a domestic arrangement, it would literally be classified as abuse.

HS2 isn’t a one off, there’s not even a two lane road from north to south. There is no north south rail structure. 

MP’s in Westminster stopped Wales setting their own airport charges, refusing to devolve air taxes. 

So call it maths if you like, I think politicians have rigged the maths.

It’s time to try something different.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • VT Supporter
37 minutes ago, bickster said:

I'm all for Welsh Independence as long as passports can be claimed with the grandparent rule and they rejoin the EU

Yes I'm being completely selfish

Actually yes, that would be great.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

Terms of use Terms of Use, Cookies We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.

Â