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27 minutes ago, Junxs said:

^ Nearly every goal in that clip is around the 6 yard box where it's been put on a plate for him. With some of those goal were shot straight at the keeper but he failed to save them.

Thats not me saying he's not a good player, but we simply dont create those kind of chances. I feel a striker who can create some of their own chances would be better for us, or someone who can curl it into the top corner.

Think thats the mistake we made when buying Hogan, his highlights clip was full of close range finishes and a few running through on goal latching onto a through ball.  

I guess what I'm trying to say is when a player scored 26 goals in a season and you see that they were all types of goals then you dont mind paying £25m, but when nearly every goal is a tap in you start to think if he's a one season wonder and worth that kind of money.

I looked into it to make sure. I knew we created the 6th most chances in the league, but I wanted to see the ratio between "long" and "short" and we have a ratio of long chances to short passes of 0.225. Brentford for comparison have a ratio of 0.19. For reference, here's how we stack up to the rest of the top 10 in chances created per game. I've put the position on this list in brackets:

Everton (9) - 0.236
Brighton (10)- 0.233
Villa (6) - 0.225
Chelsea (2) - 0.220
Liverpool (3) - 0.210
Lecester (4) - 0.200
United (5) - 0.191
Southampton (8) - 0.184
Spurs (7) - 0.154
City (1) - 0.092

So of the teams who create a lot of chances per game, we happen to err on the longer side, but not by much. Furthermore there are a handful of teams who have significantly longer ratios (Bournemouth, Sheffield United, Burnley)

Looking at ratio of goals scored from inside the penalty area per game (where Watkins seems to score most of his goal), and ours is 0.636 compared to 0.529 for Brentford. So we scored a higher proportion of our goals from inside the penalty box than Brentford. Keep in mind, Brentford were one of the best teams in their league. Looking at just shots which doesn't really delineate between a proper chance or a goal etc, things look more even. Our ratio of shots in the penalty box is 0.542 compared to Brentford's 0.552

This to me suggests we lacked quality up front at least in comparison to Brentford, relatively speaking. If we had a striker who was good at finishing and making runs in the box, I think that player would have scored significantly more than what our current strikers have outputted. Not saying that player is Watkins, but I don't think if a player similar to him arrives he won't score because of the type of chances we create. I think we're good on that front. With more quality added to the team I think we'd be even better. This is a far cry from 2017 where we didn't have a pattern on how to create chances and hoped players like Kodjia could pull a rabbit out of the hat, where we signed Scott Hogan simply because he scored a lot of goals in a few months.

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Ok it comes down to do you want him or are you going to have another Maupay moment.Stop comparing him to Hogan who played very few games for us due to 2 career threatening  inJuries.Watkins can play central or wide and get you goals.Look at his injury record very seldom misses a game.Remember the championship is rated higher than a lot of these other countries top divisions.

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3 minutes ago, Brentfordnylons said:

Ok it comes down to do you want him or are you going to have another Maupay moment.Stop comparing him to Hogan who played very few games for us due to 2 career threatening  inJuries.Watkins can play central or wide and get you goals.Look at his injury record very seldom misses a game.Remember the championship is rated higher than a lot of these other countries top divisions.

It will be done. Multiple million pound deal take time. 

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3 minutes ago, Brentfordnylons said:

Ok it comes down to do you want him or are you going to have another Maupay moment.Stop comparing him to Hogan who played very few games for us due to 2 career threatening  inJuries.Watkins can play central or wide and get you goals.Look at his injury record very seldom misses a game.Remember the championship is rated higher than a lot of these other countries top divisions.

Completely different position for Aston Villa right now as opposed to when we were in for Maupay, back then we'd just bought Wesley and had to fork out for a rebuild of just under half the entire squad, so another 15-20m on Maupay was asking a lot for a position we'd already just spent 20m in getting Wesley. Now we have the luxury of adding quality in a few select starting positions without needing to spend heavily on filling squad spots as well as starters.

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7 hours ago, sir_gary_cahill said:

Yes, it might make them a pretty penny and be successful in the short term but I’m not sure it’s a good business model in the long term. Players will see them as a stepping stone to move to a so called ‘bigger club’

As they do here, and most other clubs around the world. That’s how football works.

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6 minutes ago, Keyblade said:

Yeah man, dude with his real name and picture up is just casually leaking confidential information because *checks notes* his DMs were through the roof. 

To be fair, it's one tweet of many on the subject. Also, he mentioned the John Swift bid on Twitter hours before it came up anywhere else.

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I think Jake Alberice is legit. Not a proper ITK with wiretap on Purslow's office, but not just making stuff up for attention.

We really need to get one "major" signing through the door soon just to get a bit of momentum going and encourage other players to join. At the moment, joining a club that finished 17th and might be about to lose their star player isn't all that attractive. Think 1 or 2 good transfers could lead to another 2 getting over the line (and Jack staying).

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6 hours ago, KentVillan said:

We really need to get one "major" signing through the door soon just to get a bit of momentum going and encourage other players to join. 

Is Ollie Watkins a "major" signing? 

Most people not watching Championship footie would be saying "who?" 

I can't imagine players like Rashica dying to join us after the signing. 

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7 hours ago, VillaHatesMe said:

Just passing along since Twitter ITKs are all we have to sustain us.

 

Can't this guy seriously when, going through his twitter, he asks that bradjones if he has any info. Do people on Twitter seriously believe this shit? 

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37 minutes ago, Mjvilla said:

Can't this guy seriously when, going through his twitter, he asks that bradjones if he has any info. Do people on Twitter seriously believe this shit? 

Yeah, thinking Brad Jones is in the know destroys a lot of his credibility. 

 

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10 hours ago, Brentfordnylons said:

Ok it comes down to do you want him or are you going to have another Maupay moment.Stop comparing him to Hogan who played very few games for us due to 2 career threatening  inJuries.Watkins can play central or wide and get you goals.Look at his injury record very seldom misses a game.Remember the championship is rated higher than a lot of these other countries top divisions.

I think we want him and I think any delay has been more due to you wanting to secure a replacement than us haggling over the fee.

Personally I’m not that eager for us to sign him, I think he is a decent finisher who played in a very good side. I’m not personally convinced based on the limited amount I’ve seen of him he is a good enough finisher to score consistently at PL level, I’m also concerned that he doesn’t appear to ever create goals for himself.

I suspect that Watkins is a bit over rated to be honest so I’m a bit nervous on this one, I’d have preferred Maupay personally but fully expect this to happen.

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23 minutes ago, TrentVilla said:

I think we want him and I think any delay has been more due to you wanting to secure a replacement than us haggling over the fee.

Personally I’m not that eager for us to sign him, I think he is a decent finisher who played in a very good side. I’m not personally convinced based on the limited amount I’ve seen of him he is a good enough finisher to score consistently at PL level, I’m also concerned that he doesn’t appear to ever create goals for himself.

I suspect that Watkins is a bit over rated to be honest so I’m a bit nervous on this one, I’d have preferred Maupay personally but fully expect this to happen.

Me too. Hopefully he can make the step up.

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11 hours ago, Junxs said:

But like I said, we dont create those kind of chances so he wouldn't have scored 26 for us, well not in last seasons team. Depends who else we bring in.. 

It would have been better if he had more strings to his bow, if some of the goals he scored were curlers from outside the area, or taking on the last defender then placing it in the far corener, or rounding the keeper etc..

Every goal was a tap in in that clip.. (apart from 2 I think)

Did you see the one he smashed in on the turn from the edge of the area ( early in the clip) - impressive, I wouldn't worry about him. Right place at the right time comes to mind

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1 hour ago, Lord Willard said:

Is Ollie Watkins a "major" signing? 

Most people not watching Championship footie would be saying "who?" 

I can't imagine players like Rashica dying to join us after the signing. 

Rashica won't be joining us anyway. We need to drop that one.

at £25m Watkins would be a major signing for us - It would be our record fee. 

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