sheepyvillian Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 1 hour ago, HanoiVillan said: How is it 'ridiculous' to think we will be relegated? We stayed up on the last day of the season. Some perspective - there are 9 teams in this league of 20 who have, cumulatively, an approximately 0% chance of relegation. That means 3 from the remaining 11 will go down. Opinions can differ about which teams it will be, but the sheer narrowness of the possibilities means none of the possible combinations are 'ridiculous'. Ridiculous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villalad21 Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 2 hours ago, HanoiVillan said: How is it 'ridiculous' to think we will be relegated? We stayed up on the last day of the season. Some perspective - there are 9 teams in this league of 20 who have, cumulatively, an approximately 0% chance of relegation. That means 3 from the remaining 11 will go down. Opinions can differ about which teams it will be, but the sheer narrowness of the possibilities means none of the possible combinations are 'ridiculous'. It isn't ridiculous. Newcastle look solid. Brighton has got more experience than us Leeds has got goals in them Palace looks fine. Eze isa very good signing, if they get Benrahma as well they look strong Burnley always consistent My main worry is both our fullbacks look defensively suspect. It's why i suggested putting Elmo in the team. West Brom and Fulham are already gone. Doesn't have the squads to compete. West Ham looked hopeless but their squad is strong. We will definitely be in the mix in and around the bottom 5 all season. But don't think we'll get relegated. Not as long as we have Jack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ciggiesnbeer Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 After watching the Fulham , West Ham and WBA games I am more confident about there being weaker teams than us. But obvs I havent seen us play yet Early days but right now I would say we are going to bobble around 14th-18th the whole season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderball Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 (edited) On balance 13th. I think we are a better team than: Fulham, West Brom, Palace, West Ham, Burnley, Newcastle I think Brighton, Leeds, Southampton and Sheffield are on a level with us but lots of factors will determine how we all fare. I think if everything and everyone clicks for us, including us closing out the signings we are linked to and no major injuries, I think we could finish as high as 9th. If new boys don’t click, but stay injury free, I still feel we are safe, but will be around 16th. Edited September 14, 2020 by thunderball 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Enda Posted September 15, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted September 15, 2020 I downloaded the data for the past ten years and did a quick analysis on how teams who survived like us have performed the next year. (Please tell me if you catch any errors in my code.) Last year we finished 17th, with 35 points. The fact of the matter is teams that finished 17th in the prior season have had a hard time staying up. In the last ten years, there's obviously ten cases where a team finished 17th. The reality is the situation is that from this sample, there was a 50% chance the team that finished 17th got relegated. The worst possible scenario of going from 17th to 20th was a very common occurrence -- it even happened Villa :(. It also happened to West Ham (2011), Wolves (2012), QPR (2013), and Sunderland (2017). That's all just in the past decade. Even if a team managed to avoid relegation, moving up the table was hard. No team, not one, managed a top-half finish. The best effort was West Brom (2015), who finished 13th. Put starkly, if you finished 17th you were five times more likely to finish 20th than 13th. So, statistically, 13th would be a very good achievement for us this year - such a bounce has only happened once in the past decade. Talk of 10th-12th would be doing far better than any 17th-placed team has done in recent years. With the right transfers it's not out of the realm of possibility, but it would be a Manager of the Year-level of performance. That's for teams that finished 17th, what about teams that finished on 35 points? I have bad news. First, and everyone knew this, we were lucky to stay up with 35 points. It's rare you stay up with that few, as teams have gone down with as many as 39 points. Staying up on 35 points has only happened once in the past decade (West Ham, 2010). They were relegated the next season, coming last, and finishing seven points short of safety. A similar thing happened with Hull the previous year, relegated after surviving on 35 points. In fact I can't find anyone who stayed up after only getting 35 points the previous season. There was a bigger gap between midtable (Burnley in 10th, 54 points, 17 points ahead of us) than midtable and Champions League (Chelsea, 66 points, 14 points ahead of Burnley). We are were way adrift. So while we have our big transfer budget working for us, we also have the reality that last year we really were quite poor. There are lots of reasons to be optimistic this season, but do try to keep a bit of perspective. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osmark86 Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 19 hours ago, ciggiesnbeer said: After watching the Fulham , West Ham and WBA games I am more confident about there being weaker teams than us. But obvs I havent seen us play yet Early days but right now I would say we are going to bobble around 14th-18th the whole season. this is what I'm thinking as well. my hopes are that we have a full year's worth of PL experience across the squad now. we have also strengthened in a few positions with hopefully some more (Rashica for one) coming in before the end of the window. lastly we looked a lot better at the end of the season suggesting our team is getting stronger. the negatives are that we still just barely scraped by and other teams will have strengthened as well. I think we have enough in us to survive and make it a lot more comfortable this time around. don't think we'll enjoy midtable mediocrity for the majority of the season, but I think our collective pulses will be beating a lot less rapidly come the end of the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Follyfoot Posted September 15, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted September 15, 2020 9th of 10th, think we will surprise a few this year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sulberto21 Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, Follyfoot said: 9th of 10th, think we will surprise a few this year Relegation form no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brummybloke Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 Voting turned off... Would be hoping for around 12th if we don't have injuries like last season. The difference is only 4 wins over last season to be around that place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sulberto21 Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 3 hours ago, Enda said: I downloaded the data for the past ten years and did a quick analysis on how teams who survived like us have performed the next year. (Please tell me if you catch any errors in my code.) Last year we finished 17th, with 35 points. The fact of the matter is teams that finished 17th in the prior season have had a hard time staying up. In the last ten years, there's obviously ten cases where a team finished 17th. The reality is the situation is that from this sample, there was a 50% chance the team that finished 17th got relegated. The worst possible scenario of going from 17th to 20th was a very common occurrence -- it even happened Villa :(. It also happened to West Ham (2011), Wolves (2012), QPR (2013), and Sunderland (2017). That's all just in the past decade. Even if a team managed to avoid relegation, moving up the table was hard. No team, not one, managed a top-half finish. The best effort was West Brom (2015), who finished 13th. Put starkly, if you finished 17th you were five times more likely to finish 20th than 13th. So, statistically, 13th would be a very good achievement for us this year - such a bounce has only happened once in the past decade. Talk of 10th-12th would be doing far better than any 17th-placed team has done in recent years. With the right transfers it's not out of the realm of possibility, but it would be a Manager of the Year-level of performance. That's for teams that finished 17th, what about teams that finished on 35 points? I have bad news. First, and everyone knew this, we were lucky to stay up with 35 points. It's rare you stay up with that few, as teams have gone down with as many as 39 points. Staying up on 35 points has only happened once in the past decade (West Ham, 2010). They were relegated the next season, coming last, and finishing seven points short of safety. A similar thing happened with Hull the previous year, relegated after surviving on 35 points. In fact I can't find anyone who stayed up after only getting 35 points the previous season. There was a bigger gap between midtable (Burnley in 10th, 54 points, 17 points ahead of us) than midtable and Champions League (Chelsea, 66 points, 14 points ahead of Burnley). We are were way adrift. So while we have our big transfer budget working for us, we also have the reality that last year we really were quite poor. There are lots of reasons to be optimistic this season, but do try to keep a bit of perspective. Good post with good points well made. The only thing I'd say is in alot of the games last season we were in the game but lost it towards the end through poor game management. I feel that the squad and management especially will have learnt from that experience. Added to the new recruits I feel that we can do better. I also feel we'll go far in both cups. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderball Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 3 hours ago, Enda said: I downloaded the data for the past ten years and did a quick analysis on how teams who survived like us have performed the next year. (Please tell me if you catch any errors in my code.) Last year we finished 17th, with 35 points. The fact of the matter is teams that finished 17th in the prior season have had a hard time staying up. In the last ten years, there's obviously ten cases where a team finished 17th. The reality is the situation is that from this sample, there was a 50% chance the team that finished 17th got relegated. The worst possible scenario of going from 17th to 20th was a very common occurrence -- it even happened Villa :(. It also happened to West Ham (2011), Wolves (2012), QPR (2013), and Sunderland (2017). That's all just in the past decade. Even if a team managed to avoid relegation, moving up the table was hard. No team, not one, managed a top-half finish. The best effort was West Brom (2015), who finished 13th. Put starkly, if you finished 17th you were five times more likely to finish 20th than 13th. So, statistically, 13th would be a very good achievement for us this year - such a bounce has only happened once in the past decade. Talk of 10th-12th would be doing far better than any 17th-placed team has done in recent years. With the right transfers it's not out of the realm of possibility, but it would be a Manager of the Year-level of performance. That's for teams that finished 17th, what about teams that finished on 35 points? I have bad news. First, and everyone knew this, we were lucky to stay up with 35 points. It's rare you stay up with that few, as teams have gone down with as many as 39 points. Staying up on 35 points has only happened once in the past decade (West Ham, 2010). They were relegated the next season, coming last, and finishing seven points short of safety. A similar thing happened with Hull the previous year, relegated after surviving on 35 points. In fact I can't find anyone who stayed up after only getting 35 points the previous season. There was a bigger gap between midtable (Burnley in 10th, 54 points, 17 points ahead of us) than midtable and Champions League (Chelsea, 66 points, 14 points ahead of Burnley). We are were way adrift. So while we have our big transfer budget working for us, we also have the reality that last year we really were quite poor. There are lots of reasons to be optimistic this season, but do try to keep a bit of perspective. Coming in here with your thorough, fancy research. I’m just not having it... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvfcRigo82 Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 8th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ferguson1 Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 1st. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingman Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Better idea after 12 games Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bielesibub Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 15 minutes ago, ferguson1 said: 1st. This season the Premier League, next season the Champions League! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Silvers Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Top by Christmas, then they all get a nose bleed and tail off badly to finish a solid 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted September 17, 2020 Author Share Posted September 17, 2020 On 15/09/2020 at 15:26, Enda said: I downloaded the data for the past ten years and did a quick analysis on how teams who survived like us have performed the next year. (Please tell me if you catch any errors in my code.) Last year we finished 17th, with 35 points. The fact of the matter is teams that finished 17th in the prior season have had a hard time staying up. In the last ten years, there's obviously ten cases where a team finished 17th. The reality is the situation is that from this sample, there was a 50% chance the team that finished 17th got relegated. The worst possible scenario of going from 17th to 20th was a very common occurrence -- it even happened Villa :(. It also happened to West Ham (2011), Wolves (2012), QPR (2013), and Sunderland (2017). That's all just in the past decade. Even if a team managed to avoid relegation, moving up the table was hard. No team, not one, managed a top-half finish. The best effort was West Brom (2015), who finished 13th. Put starkly, if you finished 17th you were five times more likely to finish 20th than 13th. So, statistically, 13th would be a very good achievement for us this year - such a bounce has only happened once in the past decade. Talk of 10th-12th would be doing far better than any 17th-placed team has done in recent years. With the right transfers it's not out of the realm of possibility, but it would be a Manager of the Year-level of performance. That's for teams that finished 17th, what about teams that finished on 35 points? I have bad news. First, and everyone knew this, we were lucky to stay up with 35 points. It's rare you stay up with that few, as teams have gone down with as many as 39 points. Staying up on 35 points has only happened once in the past decade (West Ham, 2010). They were relegated the next season, coming last, and finishing seven points short of safety. A similar thing happened with Hull the previous year, relegated after surviving on 35 points. In fact I can't find anyone who stayed up after only getting 35 points the previous season. There was a bigger gap between midtable (Burnley in 10th, 54 points, 17 points ahead of us) than midtable and Champions League (Chelsea, 66 points, 14 points ahead of Burnley). We are were way adrift. So while we have our big transfer budget working for us, we also have the reality that last year we really were quite poor. There are lots of reasons to be optimistic this season, but do try to keep a bit of perspective. Great sobering analysis! Thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pelle Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 On 15/09/2020 at 16:26, Enda said: I downloaded the data for the past ten years and did a quick analysis on how teams who survived like us have performed the next year. (Please tell me if you catch any errors in my code.) Last year we finished 17th, with 35 points. The fact of the matter is teams that finished 17th in the prior season have had a hard time staying up. In the last ten years, there's obviously ten cases where a team finished 17th. The reality is the situation is that from this sample, there was a 50% chance the team that finished 17th got relegated. The worst possible scenario of going from 17th to 20th was a very common occurrence -- it even happened Villa :(. It also happened to West Ham (2011), Wolves (2012), QPR (2013), and Sunderland (2017). That's all just in the past decade. Even if a team managed to avoid relegation, moving up the table was hard. No team, not one, managed a top-half finish. The best effort was West Brom (2015), who finished 13th. Put starkly, if you finished 17th you were five times more likely to finish 20th than 13th. So, statistically, 13th would be a very good achievement for us this year - such a bounce has only happened once in the past decade. Talk of 10th-12th would be doing far better than any 17th-placed team has done in recent years. With the right transfers it's not out of the realm of possibility, but it would be a Manager of the Year-level of performance. That's for teams that finished 17th, what about teams that finished on 35 points? I have bad news. First, and everyone knew this, we were lucky to stay up with 35 points. It's rare you stay up with that few, as teams have gone down with as many as 39 points. Staying up on 35 points has only happened once in the past decade (West Ham, 2010). They were relegated the next season, coming last, and finishing seven points short of safety. A similar thing happened with Hull the previous year, relegated after surviving on 35 points. In fact I can't find anyone who stayed up after only getting 35 points the previous season. There was a bigger gap between midtable (Burnley in 10th, 54 points, 17 points ahead of us) than midtable and Champions League (Chelsea, 66 points, 14 points ahead of Burnley). We are were way adrift. So while we have our big transfer budget working for us, we also have the reality that last year we really were quite poor. There are lots of reasons to be optimistic this season, but do try to keep a bit of perspective. Very good post. I hate it! But it begs the question which state those clubs were in at the time. I mean, yes, we finished 17th by the skin of our teeth, but we've also got the spending powers atm and seems to be working on our attacking problems. I don't know if the other 10 clubs have had the same possbilities. And we've been able to keep our best players. We spent quite a lot 2015, but we also lost Benteke and snake who we never really replaced. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herman22 Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 I think we will have a better idea once the window closes. We will know what we are working with and how the first few games have gone. We will be like most teams in the bottom third of the table, so much will depend on key players staying fit. This team could finish 10-12th: Martinez Cash Konsa Mings Targett Luiz Traore McGinn Hourihane Grealish Watkins While this team could easily be relegated with only 5 key players removed: Nyland Cash Konsa Hause Targett Marv Traore McGinn Hourihane Trez Davis or Samatta Our season took a nose dive when we lost Heaton, Wesley and McGinn over the Christmas/ New Year period. It wasn't until lock down came that we seemed to regroup and pick up some points. I'm still hoping for another wide player, a central midfielder and maybe a centre back as Engels appears to be out of the manager's plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herman22 Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 On 15/09/2020 at 15:26, Enda said: I downloaded the data for the past ten years and did a quick analysis on how teams who survived like us have performed the next year. (Please tell me if you catch any errors in my code.) Last year we finished 17th, with 35 points. The fact of the matter is teams that finished 17th in the prior season have had a hard time staying up. In the last ten years, there's obviously ten cases where a team finished 17th. The reality is the situation is that from this sample, there was a 50% chance the team that finished 17th got relegated. The worst possible scenario of going from 17th to 20th was a very common occurrence -- it even happened Villa :(. It also happened to West Ham (2011), Wolves (2012), QPR (2013), and Sunderland (2017). That's all just in the past decade. Even if a team managed to avoid relegation, moving up the table was hard. No team, not one, managed a top-half finish. The best effort was West Brom (2015), who finished 13th. Put starkly, if you finished 17th you were five times more likely to finish 20th than 13th. So, statistically, 13th would be a very good achievement for us this year - such a bounce has only happened once in the past decade. Talk of 10th-12th would be doing far better than any 17th-placed team has done in recent years. With the right transfers it's not out of the realm of possibility, but it would be a Manager of the Year-level of performance. That's for teams that finished 17th, what about teams that finished on 35 points? I have bad news. First, and everyone knew this, we were lucky to stay up with 35 points. It's rare you stay up with that few, as teams have gone down with as many as 39 points. Staying up on 35 points has only happened once in the past decade (West Ham, 2010). They were relegated the next season, coming last, and finishing seven points short of safety. A similar thing happened with Hull the previous year, relegated after surviving on 35 points. In fact I can't find anyone who stayed up after only getting 35 points the previous season. There was a bigger gap between midtable (Burnley in 10th, 54 points, 17 points ahead of us) than midtable and Champions League (Chelsea, 66 points, 14 points ahead of Burnley). We are were way adrift. So while we have our big transfer budget working for us, we also have the reality that last year we really were quite poor. There are lots of reasons to be optimistic this season, but do try to keep a bit of perspective. Brilliant analysis, well done on that. I suppose our hope is that those clubs who finished 17th were on a downward spiral, we hope we are on the up. Spending 100m+ two summers in a row and keeping hold of our best player and captain. Adding quality after a learning curve season for so many players and the manager. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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