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Transfer window crystal ball: When and how much?


Gompedyret

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On 02/08/2020 at 12:57, Gompedyret said:

1. At what date do we sign our first player this summer?

* 10th August *

2. How many players have signed for Villa within Oct.5?

* 7 Players *

3 When the transfer window slams shut Monday, Oct. 5, what is Villa's gross expenditure on incoming players?

* £176.2m *

 

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I think some of the transfer spend suggestions are grossly over-estimated. 

Our total annual turnover is around £130m, assuming full grounds and normal spend by fans.

We will be spending roughly £60m a year on wages.   Another £5m on general overheads.   

Leaving £65m free before hitting FFP limits - now relaxed to be done as a 2-year period, which mean maybe we could borrow an extra £10m from next years transfer kitty. 

I just can't see how we can spend more than £75m as a stretch using every penny available.

I hope i'm wrong!

 

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1. At what date do we sign our first player this summer?

18th August

2. How many players have signed for Villa within Oct.5?

5 Players

3 When the transfer window slams shut Monday, Oct. 5, what is Villa's gross expenditure on incoming players?

 £96.25m

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1. At what date do we sign our first player this summer?

19th August - We will break our transfer record on this date as a birthday present to me

2. How many players have signed for Villa within Oct.5?

6

3. When the transfer window slams shut Monday, Oct. 5, what is Villa's gross expenditure on incoming players?

£117.3 m (cash upfront because NSWE can)

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On 02/08/2020 at 12:57, Gompedyret said:


1. At what date do we sign our first player this summer? 

2. How many players have signed for Villa within Oct.5? 

3 When the transfer window slams shut Monday, Oct. 5, what is Villa's gross expenditure on incoming players? 

1. 10 August

2. 9......4 new starters plus 5 fillers, including a few replacements. And a shitload of youth players.

3. £108m (with about £8m of incoming).

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2 hours ago, ender4 said:

I think some of the transfer spend suggestions are grossly over-estimated. 

Our total annual turnover is around £130m, assuming full grounds and normal spend by fans.

We will be spending roughly £60m a year on wages.   Another £5m on general overheads.   

Leaving £65m free before hitting FFP limits - now relaxed to be done as a 2-year period, which mean maybe we could borrow an extra £10m from next years transfer kitty. 

I just can't see how we can spend more than £75m as a stretch using every penny available.

I hope i'm wrong!

 

Don't know where you got that figure from - and I'm not saying your wrong, but....

https://www.spotrac.com/Premier League/payroll/    says £17m

https://www.sportekz.com/football/premier-league-clubs-wage-bills/      says £24m

https://www.footballfancast.com/exclude/every-premier-league-clubs-wage-bill-in-2019-2020/3     says £24m

https://www.givemesport.com/1523105-ranking-every-premier-league-club-by-their-average-weekly-wage     says our average weekly wage is £25k - so about £1.25m pa for each player.

 

It probably excludes the youth teams, and staff, and Purslow, etc and maybe bonuses - but that's a big gap and leaves a lot of latitude. (And it may be bollocks).

 

Edited by Pez1974
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47 minutes ago, Pez1974 said:

Don't know where you got that figure from - and I'm not saying your wrong, but....

https://www.spotrac.com/Premier League/payroll/    says £17m

https://www.sportekz.com/football/premier-league-clubs-wage-bills/      says £24m

https://www.footballfancast.com/exclude/every-premier-league-clubs-wage-bill-in-2019-2020/3     says £24m

https://www.givemesport.com/1523105-ranking-every-premier-league-club-by-their-average-weekly-wage     says our average weekly wage is £25k - so about £1.25m pa for each player.

 

It probably excludes the youth teams, and staff, and Purslow, etc and maybe bonuses - but that's a big gap and leaves a lot of latitude. (And it may be bollocks).

 

Thanks you, thats very interesting to see.  £24million is lower than i expected, so about £30 million after adding in other staff.

That definitely gives more leeway in adding new players (transfer fees and salaries).

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17 minutes ago, ender4 said:

Thanks you, thats very interesting to see.  £24million is lower than i expected, so about £30 million after adding in other staff.

That definitely gives more leeway in adding new players (transfer fees and salaries).

IF (big if) it's correct. It does seem low, but there's a lot of Championship wages in there.

One other thing...FFP isn't cash based, it accountancy (accruals) based. We could afford Samatta in January by shifting Kodjia…. (sorry, this next bit is **** dull).

We had written off Kodjia's incoming transfer fee when Dr Tony sold us, so selling him for £2.7m (according to TransferMarkt) was all profit.
We paid £9.45m for Samatta (again according to TransferMarkt) over 4.5 years - which is depreciation of £2.1m per full season, or just over £1m for the rest of last season. So for FFP purposes, we made a £1.6m 'profit' across those 2 transactions.  

What we're doing with the valuation of the mob we bought in last summer, and how it will affect FFP is anyone's guess. But I suspect that during the FFP 'holiday', lots of clubs will be writing players values down.

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  • 4 weeks later...
6 minutes ago, ender4 said:

Anyone changing their transfer budget prediction?  

I'm sticking with my £68 million prediction.

 

I will stick with my £60m - even though Im tempted to revise it downwards.

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Well my first signing prediction was way off. Only ~3 weeks later than I guessed (assuming Cash happens today or tomorrow).

As for total spend... I'm sticking with my 120m. Hoping the signing of a player we don't desperately need indicates there is money to spend. If Guilbert or Elmo leave then that argument falls flat as it just indicates we're buying a replacement before we sell.

In terms of total number,  I'm also sticking with 6... for the same reason above.

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  • 1 month later...

Window still open for domestic deals to/from lower leagues so things can still happen but it won't be any big fees for outgoings.

Edited by sne
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