Ginko Posted August 6, 2020 Share Posted August 6, 2020 1 hour ago, Knutserov13 said: I would have expected an interview with Lange on the OS by now. Hopefully he hasn't had time because he's been put straight to work on transfers. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted August 6, 2020 Share Posted August 6, 2020 (edited) Whilst the Moneyball is a interesting approach and well worth looking at, it is still basically the teams with the highest budgets do the best in performance . I don't think that will really change. All teams must do statistical analysis and the bigger teams probably have more resources to do it better. The Oakland A's never won the world series under Beane. Not really a suprise given how small the franchise is. The Red Sox took the same approach with a lot more money and was succesful. Edited August 6, 2020 by The Fun Factory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted August 6, 2020 Share Posted August 6, 2020 On the subject of data analysis , Aston Villa were predicted to finish 17th by the data experts at the start of the season with 37 points. In reality, they finished 17th on 35 points. Impressive until you realise they had Bournemouth to fish 11th and City as champions Now that all Premier League clubs now know their fate and where they’ll be playing next season, we took a look at how data experts FiveThirtyEight thought the table would look way back in August before a ball had been kicked… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparrow1988 Posted August 6, 2020 Share Posted August 6, 2020 24 minutes ago, mjmooney said: And there you have the problem with data analysis in a nutshell. 'Should have' finished 2nd according to the data, but actually finished 9th. Want to know why? Watch the games. Yep I agree as I said later in the post finding the balance is the key. Just looking at the stats provides limited insight in to what happened. A bit like only quoting a snippet of a post only provides limited insight into what was actually said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post KentVillan Posted August 6, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted August 6, 2020 Data analysis can't predict which team will have an injury crisis or any of the other random things that happen during a season. It's like poker - even if you get it right, you can still catch a bad run of cards. The point is that if we don't do any decent data analysis, over time we'll get more things wrong than we get right. You still need people with good footballing brains overseeing it all though. Moneyball is a complement to a good eye for footballing talent, not a replacement for it. The scout might spot a player who has a certain talent, but the analytics models can be used to work out what the right price is, given injury risk, etc. They should work hand in hand. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junxs Posted August 6, 2020 Share Posted August 6, 2020 Didn't realise he was part of the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted August 6, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted August 6, 2020 2 hours ago, tonyh29 said: Impressive until you realise they had Bournemouth to fish 11th and City as champions I really hake it when they make such assumptions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted August 6, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted August 6, 2020 58 minutes ago, Jareth said: I really hake it when they make such assumptions. Oh no. I feared that salmon would start a round of fish puns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnnyp Posted August 6, 2020 Share Posted August 6, 2020 4 hours ago, mikeyp102 said: Personally I couldn’t care less if we never hear from him. Any statement from someone on a role like this is always going to be criticised, if he says we want to buy low price and sell on, criticised. If he says we want to but top talent, criticised. If he says we have money to spend, clubs put prices up. Why as fans do we need to know what the sporting director is thinking. Let him be judged on his performance not on his words. Bang on. The Villa media side if anything are a little bit full on at times. Like, nice to see the videos from when they interviewed Mark Harrison but again other clubs wouldn't be putting up YouTube videos of interviews with the new guy over the academy. We don't need to hear from Lange. Just because we aren't hearing from him, it doesn't mean he's not working. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveAV1 Posted August 6, 2020 Share Posted August 6, 2020 22 minutes ago, Johnnyp said: Bang on. The Villa media side if anything are a little bit full on at times. Like, nice to see the videos from when they interviewed Mark Harrison but again other clubs wouldn't be putting up YouTube videos of interviews with the new guy over the academy. We don't need to hear from Lange. Just because we aren't hearing from him, it doesn't mean he's not working. You mean he doesn’t just sit at home when he’s not making videos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
useless Posted August 6, 2020 Share Posted August 6, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reivax_Villa Posted August 6, 2020 Share Posted August 6, 2020 14 minutes ago, useless said: HUGE appointment I’m very excited by this news. This story deserves its own thread and there are some in-depth articles about how he goes about his work. His analytics discovered Mahrez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fox1884 Posted August 6, 2020 Visiting Supporter Share Posted August 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, Reivax_Villa said: HUGE appointment I’m very excited by this news. This story deserves its own thread and there are some in-depth articles about how he goes about his work. His analytics discovered Mahrez. Not technically, Steve Walsh found Mahrez when looking at another player at Le Havre which meant he was then tracked in the system Mahrez was highlighted by the analytics team later on when we were looking for players of a certain criteria (wide player with 1 year left on his contract and matched criteria from the universal database such as progressive runs etc.) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomaszk Posted August 6, 2020 Share Posted August 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, Fox1884 said: Not technically, Steve Walsh found Mahrez when looking at another player at Le Havre which meant he was then tracked in the system Mahrez was highlighted by the analytics team later on when we were looking for players of a certain criteria (wide player with 1 year left on his contract and matched criteria from the universal database such as progressive runs etc.) How's this Mackenzie viewed in general would you say? He's either very good or a magnificent blagger. His constant moving around seems strange to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fox1884 Posted August 6, 2020 Visiting Supporter Share Posted August 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Tomaszk said: How's this Mackenzie viewed in general would you say? He's either very good or a magnificent blagger. His constant moving around seems strange to me. Seems like he is highly rated wherever he goes, we were rumoured to be considering bringing him back after our head technical scout left last year but we went with someone else, but he definitely has good experience hehind him as well Technical scouting is obviously becoming a massive thing when clubs look at transfers now so having someone like Mackenzie who has been doing it for a while will definitely help, will just depend on the kind of players that Smith wants He used to follow Nigel Pearson around - was with us when he was our manager, left and joined Spurs, then joined up with Pearson at Derby and then recently OH Leuven when Pearson was manager and stayed after he left there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MessiWillSignForVilla Posted August 6, 2020 Share Posted August 6, 2020 9 minutes ago, Tomaszk said: How's this Mackenzie viewed in general would you say? He's either very good or a magnificent blagger. His constant moving around seems strange to me. I imagine if you dig into it that people in those sorts of roles tend to move around quite a lot, as they get poached by other clubs and new managers come in who don't see eye to eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomaszk Posted August 6, 2020 Share Posted August 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, Fox1884 said: Seems like he is highly rated wherever he goes, we were rumoured to be considering bringing him back after our head technical scout left last year but we went with someone else, but he definitely has good experience hehind him as well Technical scouting is obviously becoming a massive thing when clubs look at transfers now so having someone like Mackenzie who has been doing it for a while will definitely help, will just depend on the kind of players that Smith wants He used to follow Nigel Pearson around - was with us when he was our manager, left and joined Spurs, then joined up with Pearson at Derby and then recently OH Leuven when Pearson was manager and stayed after he left there What an awful thing to do That's actually good to hear. There's now a logical reason he's ended up at a second division Belgian side. Agree with your general point as well. With this chap and spreadsheet lover Lange we can move our scouting in the 21st century, even if neither is here for the long-term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Silvers Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 Wearing a beautiful Navitimer in the Ollie announcement, only geniuses wear them, we in very good hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveAV1 Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 52 minutes ago, Phil Silvers said: Wearing a beautiful Navitimer in the Ollie announcement, only geniuses wear them, we in very good hands. I take it you wear one? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Silvers Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, DaveAV1 said: I take it you wear one? Used to but I'm a flipper, never have more than 3 watches in collection. OH,,... and I'm pretty much as far away from being a genius as is a possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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