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U.S. Presidential Election 2020


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U.S. Presidential Election 2020  

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  1. 1. Who wins?



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  • VT Supporter

Ohio has been called for trump, which is not unexpected, but the margin is looking likely to be significantly wider than predicted, which could be bad news for demographically similar states wisconsin, michigan and pennsylvania. Biden cannot realistically win without winning at least the first two of those. He had big leads in polling averages of both states, but if he's performing much worse than predicted across the region then they may be very close. 

I think it's sensible to consider the outcome 50-50 at this point. 

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2 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Ohio has been called for trump, which is not unexpected, but the margin is looking likely to be significantly wider than predicted, which could be bad news for demographically similar states wisconsin, michigan and pennsylvania. Biden cannot realistically win without winning at least the first two of those. He had big leads in polling averages of both states, but if he's performing much worse than predicted across the region then they may be very close. 

I think it's sensible to consider the outcome 50-50 at this point. 

So many polls predicted a blowout. 

I honestly thought Biden would win easily (and I knew Trump would beat Hilary.)

Pretty stunned it's so close.

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  • VT Supporter
7 minutes ago, TheAuthority said:

So many polls predicted a blowout. 

I honestly thought Biden would win easily (and I knew Trump would beat Hilary.)

Pretty stunned it's so close.

It's early doors, but it looks like national polls may have been too bullish on Biden. However, it's not a national race. State polls always predicted a closer race. Biden was favoured by tiny margins in a number of states in eg the 538 forecast, so a small polling error can produce the 'wrong' call in a number of states, even if they are not far out. For example, trump looks like he will take a narrow victory in North carolina when he was predicted a narrow defeat, which may be disappointing but is not a big polling error. I think Biden can be concerned about the size of the polling error in ohio though, because if that is replicated exactly in pennsylvania he could be in difficulties. 

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3 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

It's early doors, but it looks like national polls may have been too bullish on Biden. However, it's not a national race. State polls always predicted a closer race. Biden was favoured by tiny margins in a number of states in eg the 538 forecast, so a small polling error can produce the 'wrong' call in a number of states, even if they are not far out. For example, trump looks like he will take a narrow victory in North carolina when he was predicted a narrow defeat, which may be disappointing but is not a big polling error. I think Biden can be concerned about the size of the polling error in ohio though, because if that is replicated exactly in pennsylvania he could be in difficulties. 

Fox News just called Minnesota for Biden.

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  • VT Supporter

Trump leading very comfortably in iowa, which is not a great sign re the rest of the Midwest, though it is much more rural and white than other states. 

The republican is clearly going to win in the senate race there as well, which makes it harder to see dems taking the chamber. 

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Just now, HanoiVillan said:

Trump leading very comfortably in iowa, which is not a great sign re the rest of the Midwest, though it is much more rural and white than other states. 

The republican is clearly going to win in the senate race there as well, which makes it harder to see dems taking the chamber. 

We got one from Colorado!

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How th3 **** is it close? I **** despise Americans. The most retarded country on the planet bar none. Populated by millions of the most disgusting, deplorable ignorant awful human beings to have lived. Who looks at Trump and thinks ' yeah we like him'. Vile human scum.each and every single Trump voter to their core. Absolutely despicable..**** you America. **** nuke yourself out of existence please. 

It shouldn't even be remotely close. Pathetic nation.we are **** as a species. Just **** end now, world. There's no **** point when many millions of people are so constitutionally **** brain damaged. 

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  • VT Supporter
7 minutes ago, TheAuthority said:

We got one from Colorado!

So far, the net is one won in colorado and lost one in alabama (both expected). It looks likely that dems will win in arizona as well (also expected), but that would still only be a net gain of one when a net gain of three is needed, and several possibilities are now either gone or getting increasingly unlikely (texas, kansas, Montana, North Carolina, iowa) - haven't checked in on maine for a while 

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Just now, HanoiVillan said:

So far, the net is one won in colorado and lost one in alabama (both expected). It looks likely that dems will win in arizona as well (also expected), but that would still only be a net gain of one when a net gain of three is needed, and several possibilities are now either gone or getting increasingly unlikely (texas, kansas, Montana, North Carolina, iowa) - haven't checked in on maine for a while 

Collins projected to win - although she's 'concerned'

Tw8t

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  • VT Supporter
1 minute ago, TheAuthority said:

Collins projected to win - although she's 'concerned'

Tw8t

If she wins, dems don't have a path to winning the senate (or to be more accurate, their path would rely on winning the two run off elections in Georgia in January, in which they will be favoured to lose both) 

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Just now, HanoiVillan said:

If she wins, dems don't have a path to winning the senate (or to be more accurate, their path would rely on winning the two run off elections in Georgia in January, in which they will be favoured to lose both) 

Correct. The predicted Blue wave has dissolved into a dribble.

Trump already stated that "the Dems are trying to steal the election."

This may get horrible. I'm exhausted.

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