ml1dch Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 4 hours ago, Demitri_C said: Biden doesnt inspire me much either to be honest He's not really supposed to. He's supposed to a comfy, non-threatening pair of political slippers that appeals to enough elderly Republicans who just want things to go back to being a bit less dickish. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villakram Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 On 23/10/2020 at 10:04, ml1dch said: True, but it looks as though the 2020 vote is going to be significantly higher than the 2016 vote. 50 million votes have now been cast. Around 138m votes last time so well over a third of last time's total already in. The reports I've read suggest they're expecting a 15-20m increase from 2016. And while nothing is set in stone, none of the available information suggests that Trump has significantly increased his support from last time. E.g., in Michigan, if we look at official party registrations, then far more people have registered as new members of the R party than have for the D party in the last 4 years. This pattern is also repeated in a number of other battleground states. Large scale, national polls are borderline worthless; however, it is very difficult to see how Trump wins a high turnout election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 hour ago, villakram said: E.g., in Michigan, if we look at official party registrations, then far more people have registered as new members of the R party than have for the D party in the last 4 years. This pattern is also repeated in a number of other battleground states. This is true, but I assume a large part of the difference is that Dems had a competitive primary this year and Repubs didn't? Hence maybe a substantial number of Dem-inclined voters got registered earlier in the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villakram Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 17 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: This is true, but I assume a large part of the difference is that Dems had a competitive primary this year and Repubs didn't? Hence maybe a substantial number of Dem-inclined voters got registered earlier in the year. Ya, it's not clear, but in comparison to polling data it would show significant R enthusiasm in that those who register for a party are pretty much guaranteed to vote. Additional data, that as is often the cases only begets more questions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharkyvilla Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 That fiverthirtyeight website which seems a bit like their equivalent of Ukpollingreport predicts an 87% chance of Biden winning now. Too many places that are out of the margin of error for Trump to catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted October 26, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted October 26, 2020 11 hours ago, LondonLax said: That’s a bit of a dangerous path to go down, justifying or equivocating attacking people who have a different political view to yourself. I agree, but I didn't say it it's justifiable to attack people who have a different view to myself. You inferred that so please read what I wrote again. To clarify: The Proud Boys are not in NYC just to show their support for Donald Trump. They are they to antagonize and one of their stated aims is to cause and provoke violence. The Southern Poverty Law Center classifies the PB's as a hate group. Their leader Gavin McInnes advocates that violence is a way of settling political disputes. PB's are based in Portland - I'm not sure if their affiliate membership were present in NYC yesterday. However let's say that even just a few of the PB's leadership were there. They had to fly to NYC, a 5 hour cross country overnight flight and they did that just to wave some flags in Time Square? They have visited NYC before and attacked people (12 on 1) allegedly because they were a "faggot." https://www.thedailybeast.com/far-right-proud-boys-kick-punch-people-in-new-york It's pretty clear to me that they aren't just putting up Trump signs on their lawn to show their support for their preferred Presidential candidate. There's a bit more to these groups than that. This answer also applies to @Demitri_C response. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maqroll Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 I voted today. If Gideon beats Susan Collins here and all the other New England Dems win, the entire region will be Blue. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Wainy316 Posted October 26, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted October 26, 2020 Always have to remind myself to flip it in my head that in America the blue are the goodies and the red are the baddies. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Just now, Wainy316 said: Always have to remind myself to flip it in my head that in America the blue are the goodies and the red are the baddies. They are both bad tbh, the reds just happen to be even worse than the blue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maqroll Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 9 minutes ago, sne said: They are both bad tbh, the reds just happen to be even worse than the blue. True. But right now you can consider me an enthusiastic Democrat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Just now, maqroll said: True. But right now you can consider me an enthusiastic Democrat. Oh absolutely, it's no contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted October 26, 2020 Moderator Share Posted October 26, 2020 Just now, sne said: Oh absolutely, it's no contest. For some people its different. Most of us wake up and think... "need a piss and what shall I have with my coffee" other people seem to wake up and think... "Yeah but Biden..." then piss themselves 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, bickster said: For some people its different. Most of us wake up and think... "need a piss and what shall I have with my coffee" other people seem to wake up and think... "Yeah but Biden..." then piss themselves Can you all shut up so we can talk about Hillary's emails? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 6 hours ago, villakram said: Large scale, national polls are borderline worthless; however, it is very difficult to see how Trump wins a high turnout election. Indeed. This is the sort of granular level stuff which I think is most interesting. I think that for any individual piece of data to be useful, it needs to be placed in the context of what happened in 2016 and arguably even 2012 as well. So as @HanoiVillan said earlier in the thread - that 125,000 extra Democrat registered voters could simply be 125,000 that voted on the day in 2016 and aren't this year because they have already voted. It's definitely a possibility, and probably the only thing that prevents a Biden victory. But right now the data says that many more people are voting than last time, and comparatively few of them are going red/orange. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maqroll Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 Trump only leading in Texas within the margin of error. No wonder their R Governor mandated just ONE SINGLE ballot drop box per county. If Texas stays red this election, it will be the last time it does so. Unless they keep suppressing the vote and rigging results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancvillan Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Just for some context because this shit is dry - the following is based on 538's model / odds since Nate Silver loves his poker... In 2016 Trump was drawing to an outside straight or flush on the river. In 2020 he's drawing to an inside straight on the river. That said, luck can always **** you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 13 hours ago, TheAuthority said: I agree, but I didn't say it it's justifiable to attack people who have a different view to myself. You inferred that so please read what I wrote again. To clarify: The Proud Boys are not in NYC just to show their support for Donald Trump. They are they to antagonize and one of their stated aims is to cause and provoke violence. The Southern Poverty Law Center classifies the PB's as a hate group. Their leader Gavin McInnes advocates that violence is a way of settling political disputes. PB's are based in Portland - I'm not sure if their affiliate membership were present in NYC yesterday. However let's say that even just a few of the PB's leadership were there. They had to fly to NYC, a 5 hour cross country overnight flight and they did that just to wave some flags in Time Square? They have visited NYC before and attacked people (12 on 1) allegedly because they were a "faggot." https://www.thedailybeast.com/far-right-proud-boys-kick-punch-people-in-new-york It's pretty clear to me that they aren't just putting up Trump signs on their lawn to show their support for their preferred Presidential candidate. There's a bit more to these groups than that. This answer also applies to @Demitri_C response. Mate I don’t want to get your back up but please listen to what you are saying here. This is essentially the same thing Trump and his goons say when justifying their attacks on protesters. They label them all ‘Antifa’ radicals and that gives them the righteousness they need to attack their opponents. You have linked an article from a number of years ago saying a group of radicals attacked New York once and seem to be using that as justification for the people in these videos being attacked. I have watched the videos again and I can’t see any indication that the family in the black car are ‘Proud Boys’, the dad who gets punched when he’s saying ‘do not go after my daughter’ has a pretty thick New York accent. The woman in the purple coat who gives they guy his flag back doesn’t strike me as a ‘Proud Boy’, there is even a guy wearing a ‘Gays for Trump’ T-shirt standing behind the dude who falls while over taking the flag, my understanding is the ‘Proud Boys’ are pretty homophobic. We really have to be better man. We have to oppose the violence otherwise it just keeps escalating from both sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted October 27, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted October 27, 2020 10 hours ago, maqroll said: Trump only leading in Texas within the margin of error. No wonder their R Governor mandated just ONE SINGLE ballot drop box per county. If Texas stays red this election, it will be the last time it does so. Unless they keep suppressing the vote and rigging results. I have a few Texas friends on FB (and even In Real Life). All Democrat voters. But then I guess that's the echo chamber effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, mjmooney said: I have a few Texas friends on FB (and even In Real Life). All Democrat voters. But then I guess that's the echo chamber effect. Austin, Texas is apparently the 2nd most Liberal place to live in the States. Mad really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wainy316 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 59 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said: Austin, Texas is apparently the 2nd most Liberal place to live in the States. Mad really. I would expect Texas has similar voter demographics to the UK. More liberal in the cities but in the end just loses out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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