Richard Posted March 31, 2008 Author Share Posted March 31, 2008 Here's my stance on this for what it's worth. The use of the word "sufficient" by me is fairly ambiguous, but I was at a loss as to what other word to use, I accept the point from trent about the poll and also I can see how sufficient can be taken a few ways so I want to get that out of the way to start with. Sufficient for me is so that we can buy players of the right quality and in the right numbers to take us to the next level. I think a fairly conservative estimate of the number of players we are going to need of that quality this summer is around 5 to 7, and that excludes the anticipated purchase of Curtis Davies. So if Davies costs us around 9M then thats 6 or 7 players of the same value that we need to buy. So anywhere from 54M to 70M in expenditure. Now you can dispute this but I would say that taking into account the comments on here that we don't need anymore Knights (3M) or Harewoods (4M) or Petrovs (6M) and Ashley Young (9.6M) and Curtis Davies (9M) are the only decent players bought, then you have to be talking around 9M players here. So do we have sufficient for that? IMO no I do not think we have now or will have in the forseeable future fund to compete at that level. My rationale for that is along these lines 1. If we were going to do that then I think we would have funded a couple more of that quality before now to be honest. I think we have tried to do it with the bare minimum of investment. Sure we have spent £33.4M in the last two years, but we have recouped £10.05M meaning a yearly spend of £11.675M. Around the spend per yer that we should now expect per player? Not convinced myself 2. Randy Lerner "The Billionare", good as Randy may be as our owner (and don't get me wrong I think he is good and am not starting a Randy Out campaign just yet) I simply do not think he has the funds to invest at the level of 70M + on transfers. His fortune was estimated at around $1.4BN, thats £700M at the current exchange rate. Can he spend 10% of that, when in actual fact the 700M will not be all cash, on team strengthening at one of his companies? 3. He has spent elsewhere. Yes he has, on strengthening the fixed asset base of the club. He has spent money that will not be lost. Transfer fees are basically dependat upon players form staying the same or improving if you hope to recoup your money, and if a player plays that well then you would want to keep him or it will cost you more to replace him. No money to be made in transfer fees , only money to be lost. Sure he has donated to the artworld and thats fine, but is allowable against tax. The shirt sponsorship deal is a strange one for me as what it does is basically restrict the income to the club. The donation to the charity is allowable, it's the lack of turnover that I find strange. Although the estimates of around 2M per year in sponsirship would fund a leg of a player at this point. 4. The five year plan, is I believe a plan to enable the club to be self sufficient in the transfer market more than anything else. To compete but to do it within our means. That requires some initial investment and I think we have seen it to be honest. Now the arguments may well be that just because we haven't spent does not mean that the money is not there, it's all about the manager. Yes it can look that way. However that would be to assume that the manager is incapable of being a football manager because he has the tools but cannot use them. I do not believe he is either incapable or stupid. personally I honestly believe that we aint got the money and that the General's idea that Randy will back the manager with funds, does not match what I feel that to be. We cannot and should not ask him or anyone at the club to confirm an exact amount but I have my doubts that it will be sufficient. I hope I am wrong but £70M spent out of a personal fortune of around £700M is an awful lot of wonga. Please prove me wrong Mr Lerner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pelle Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 Yes. Have no reason to doubt that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shitonthecity Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 Absolutely, the problem is MON not being able/capable of finding or convincing the players to join Aston Villa! Agree, i think the money has been there in previous windows too, i think the brakes are on MON's wheels not Randy's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 Good post Richard, sums it well for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianrobo1 Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 the thing is rich, I agree with you but surely Lerner knew this when he came to the club hi expectations were he would have to spend upwards of £150m in the first few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 as for Petrov depending on the poster is 6.5 - 8.5 million. AIRI They can also be divided into correct (£6.5m) and incorrect (£8.5m). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myb Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 I don't see £70million as being the figure for "sufficient" personally. We have a good core - as good as any of the teams around us, just a couple of players missing. I see us needing a RB (and we wouldn't need to break the bank for a decent one) a RM and a forward. The latter 2 being the more expensive signings. So i see us needing to spend about £20million in filling those 3 positions. I think we'll spend around another £8-10million on players to give our squad strength (a CB and GK plus one other) which will be around £30million. I'd be pleased with that and added to the quality we have now, would see us push on again. I think we'll spend anywhere between 20 and 30 million and that, in my view, is sufficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 Don't think Randolph is going to fork out anywhere near £70m this summer, net. I think we'll be looking at nearer £30m net, if that. Maybe £25m, going on past spend. I think we might let a few go though, so could recoup a small amount that way. We'll be getting the likes of Ollie and Tommy off the wage bill, and will let Carson go (i think). I can see the likes of Petrov and Maloney maybe being sold. We're going to need right winger, centre halves and strikers. And the hallowed right back. I don't think we'll need £70m net by the way. I think we'll need 4 or 5 (keeper, RB, Centre Half, Right winger, striker) very decent first team players, and with wheeling & dealing by MON this could be achieved for round about £30m or so net, if we have it. Juciy in goal for example would be no initial cost, just high wages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Posted March 31, 2008 Author Share Posted March 31, 2008 the thing is rich, I agree with you but surely Lerner knew this when he came to the club hi expectations were he would have to spend upwards of £150m in the first few years And how do you think that 150M is broken down Ian, and over what timescales? So Purchase price £64M Trainiing faciility upgrade £ 8M HoltEnd Pub Upgrade £ 6M Other upgrades at ground £ 4M Net Transfer Spend first two years £23.35M Thats £106M without too much looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b6bloke Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 Are we basing all these figures on what Randy will have to pay out of his own pocket? You say £70 mill out of £700 mill is a lot of money but how much can ASTON VILLA afford as I think you need to add TV money and other revenue into the equation. Doug did not fund all of his buys out of his own pocket and he even managed to pay himself a wage! Out of interest How much TV money do we get a year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianrobo1 Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 the thing is rich, I agree with you but surely Lerner knew this when he came to the club hi expectations were he would have to spend upwards of £150m in the first few years And how do you think that 150M is broken down Ian, and over what timescales? So Purchase price £64M Trainiing faciility upgrade £ 8M HoltEnd Pub Upgrade £ 6M Other upgrades at ground £ 4M Net Transfer Spend first two years £23.35M Thats £106M without too much looking I exclude the purchase price, I meant £150m after the sale plus remember some of the transfers would be paid for by the extra TV money I think also you will need to budget higher for other upgrades at the ground ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 Well if you had millions at your disposal , ask yourself honestly would you be signing wayne routledge & zat knight ? - NO If MON took the liverpool job in the summer - bet your life he wouldn't come back for those players - it would be top bracket / top fee / top wage players Sad as it is he doesn't have the money ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Posted March 31, 2008 Author Share Posted March 31, 2008 Are we basing all these figures on what Randy will have to pay out of his own pocket? You say £70 mill out of £700 mill is a lot of money but how much can ASTON VILLA afford as I think you need to add TV money and other revenue into the equation. Doug did not fund all of his buys out of his own pocket and he even managed to pay himself a wage! Out of interest How much TV money do we get a year? I do not believe that the club is in a position to be able to fund player investment to the value required. I think they would almost certainly need to be funded from Mr Lerner's own funds, as suggested by the "Randy will do what is necessary" and "has told MON the money is there" quotes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Posted March 31, 2008 Author Share Posted March 31, 2008 I exclude the purchase price, I meant £150m after the sale plus remember some of the transfers would be paid for by the extra TV money I think also you will need to budget higher for other upgrades at the ground ... Well Ian, when talking investment the purchase price has to be included as it normally is on acquistions. As I said I got to 105M without thinking too much so as you say I may have underestimated the ground upgrades. Not much change out of 150M is there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianrobo1 Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 all semantics, I agree, but you have to factor in the increased gate, tv, merchandise, commrcial revenues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnGoodman Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 This summmer will tell us if we just have a more touchy, feely version of Doug. Have seen nothing yet to suggest we are ready to compete in the big boy's transfer market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 In both the General & Randy I trust! Sufficient funds will be made available for the right players. We will not become challengers to Manchester United by next season but Martin will be given the funds to improve us by bringing in the players he wants and his task will be to hook them in the summer. Those players along with the bulk of what we have will see us improve again next season and future windows and the development of players we have will bring the current big 4 nearer to us as is the 5-year plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshVilla Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 I dont believe we will be able to compete for expensive players we wont pay the wages that top players will ask for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianrobo1 Posted March 31, 2008 Share Posted March 31, 2008 This summmer will tell us if we just have a more touchy, feely version of Doug. Have seen nothing yet to suggest we are ready to compete in the big boy's transfer market. we can't compete nor can anyone else outside of the top 4 as in the OT thread we have to stop the illusion that we can compete even with Randy's money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOF Posted March 31, 2008 Moderator Share Posted March 31, 2008 Show me MON promising anything Nick. Just to help people making their mind up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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