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Generic Virus Thread


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28 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

Test and trace is next to impossible with the numbers of cases in the U.K.  When you start running through every person’s contacts for the previous week the numbers quickly get out of hand.

Not only that, the people in the U.K. have a natural aversion to telling some sort of authority details of all their movements and contacts in a way that seems to not be an issue in some East Asian countries. 

I think it’s pretty unlikely the U.K. will ever see a successful track and trace program. 

It won’t be robust before the early vaccines are rolled out imo.

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3 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

They probably should be encouraging students to spread it amongst themselves now so they’re over it by the time they go home. 

As far as I can see, that's what's largely already happened.

I feel terribly for these kids to be honest. A friend's daughter is at Cardiff - they aren't even having synchronous Zoom lectures or seminars, everything is asynchronous, so she's literally paid £5k to spend 24 hours a day in a room the same size as a prison cell just waiting to get seriously unwell. Don't suppose The Discourse will stop considering treating these kids terribly as a mark of seriousness though. 

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8 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

They probably should be encouraging students to spread it amongst themselves now so they’re over it by the time they go home. 

That would seem a pretty haphazard, leave it to the market kind of 'plan'.

It also relies upon a large number of assumptions about transmission across a particular part of a population (pace of spread, &c.), enforced quarantine of all student populations (otherwise that 'encouraged spread' will bleed in to nearby non-student populations) and the future susceptibility of the non-infected part of that specific population group.

Edited by snowychap
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There was an article in the Spectator a couple of weeks ago written by a Conservative Peer along those lines.
 

Quote

It is counterintuitive but the current spread of Covid may on balance be the least worst thing that could happen now. In the absence of a vaccine, and with no real prospect of eradicating the disease, the virus spreading among younger people, mostly without hitting the vulnerable, is creating immunity that will eventually slow the epidemic

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/students-who-catch-covid-may-be-saving-lives#

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16 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

There was an article in the Spectator a couple of weeks ago written by a Conservative Peer along those lines.

I'm not sure anyone is disputing that this is the Government's 'plan'. I think they're questioning its status as a 'plan'.

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6 minutes ago, Chindie said:

We don't have any evidence of lasting immunity do we?

It seems that some people can get multiple strains of the virus but reinfection has been a very rare phenomenon. I suspect the most likely end game is that the virus becomes endemic in global society with new strains circulating each winter and medical authorities trying to suppress them with seasonal vaccines. 
 

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On 24/10/2020 at 11:45, mjmooney said:

Spoke to an ex work colleague on the phone last night. Her 15 year old daughter got sent home from school with COVID-like symptoms. Got tested. Positive. Now my friend also has symptoms, and awaiting her own test result, which is pretty obviously going to be positive. All bad enough in itself, but she's already been isolating since the start of the pandemic as she's recently had surgery and chemo for breast cancer. And in August she was diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. And she's Asian. Her daughter is panicking and scared that she might have put her mum's life in danger. But hey, the schools had to go back... :(

Latest update on this: she tested negative. Which I guess is good news, but raises more questions than answers. She's been in close proximity with only one person (the kid) for months. That person tested positive, and they've both been ill (fortunately not severely) with the same symptoms. One positive test, one negative. I would strongly suspect that one result is unreliable. Either they've both had COVID and there's a false negative, OR they've both had some lesser flu-type virus and there's a false positive. If that's the case, how often is this happening? 

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3 hours ago, mjmooney said:

Latest update on this: she tested negative. Which I guess is good news, but raises more questions than answers. She's been in close proximity with only one person (the kid) for months. That person tested positive, and they've both been ill (fortunately not severely) with the same symptoms. One positive test, one negative. I would strongly suspect that one result is unreliable. Either they've both had COVID and there's a false negative, OR they've both had some lesser flu-type virus and there's a false positive. If that's the case, how often is this happening? 

My friend in Germany, in her early 50s, tested positive in March after other members in her small office had also tested positive.  Her husband, also early 50s, tested negative and displayed no symptoms.

Good news on your friend, though.

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Now, this was clearly not was intended, but this is why legislation should include detailed, specific guidelines, rather than the absolute bollocks the Welsh government have put out. Honestly this farce is giving Westminster a run for its money for biggest balls up of the week.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-54685886

Quote

Tesco was "simply wrong" to tell a woman she could not buy period products during lockdown, Health Minister Vaughan Gething has said.

The supermarket apologised after saying it could not sell sanitary towels and tampons from a store in Cardiff.

The Welsh Government has banned the sale of non-essential items in supermarkets during a 17-day lockdown.

Opposition parties have called that "absolute madness" and said better communication was needed with shops.

Mr Gething told the Welsh Government briefing that supermarkets would now be able to use their "discretion".

On Monday, Health Minister Vaughan Gething said meetings would be held with the supermarkets to make clear they could use "some discretion" to sell non-essentials to those in "genuine need".

Speaking at the Welsh Government's coronavirus briefing he said he was "very sorry" a woman had been incorrectly told she could not buy sanitary products.

It's absurd, but with companies being fined for fairly minor breaches of guidelines, I can understand them being cautious. How about you legislate effectively rather than telling companies to "use discretion" you useless word removed. 

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4 hours ago, mjmooney said:

Latest update on this: she tested negative. Which I guess is good news, but raises more questions than answers. She's been in close proximity with only one person (the kid) for months. That person tested positive, and they've both been ill (fortunately not severely) with the same symptoms. One positive test, one negative. I would strongly suspect that one result is unreliable. Either they've both had COVID and there's a false negative, OR they've both had some lesser flu-type virus and there's a false positive. If that's the case, how often is this happening? 

Glad she is ok.

I tested negative 10 days ago, but have continued to have the symptoms (up to last night) and it has subsided. Today the first day I can sense smells and tastes. I have once again tested negative. It's all a bit weird.

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11 minutes ago, mjmooney said:

I see Boots are now advertising walk-in tests, with results in 12 minutes. 

Great, eh? 

Only £120 a pop... 

To be fair, they have stated that's only the starting price and the more the product is used the cheaper it will become.

But yeah, that's pretty much ruling out a large proportion of the country from a price PoV isn't it? 

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1 hour ago, Davkaus said:

Now, this was clearly not was intended, but this is why legislation should include detailed, specific guidelines, rather than the absolute bollocks the Welsh government have put out. Honestly this farce is giving Westminster a run for its money for biggest balls up of the week.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-54685886

It's absurd, but with companies being fined for fairly minor breaches of guidelines, I can understand them being cautious. How about you legislate effectively rather than telling companies to "use discretion" you useless word removed. 

There was a list of specific items and specific exemptions.

I’m no fan of Labour, but they are taking a kicking here for two bad reasons:

One: people don’t appear to be able to read to the end of the line

Three: bedwetters can’t live without a new wok for 14 days

One: The BBC are happy to simply repeat anything any tory tells them and not do the most basic google based fact check

 

Again, I’m not a fan of Mark Drakeford and I’m not currently a Labour voter, but it’s fascinating how this issue has been communicated. I think they were always on a hiding to nothing, they’ve taken some bad advice. But **** me, we’ve found what triggers people. A restriction on shopping during a pandemic.

It’s not how my benign dictatorship would have dealt with it. But it’s also not the end of the world. It’s a cosy timely diversion from problems elsewhere.

Personally, I’d have suggested banning the sale of the Redknapp autobiography in Asda for 2 weeks was always going to get the gammons riled up because they can simply say, Labour have banned books. Which is never a good look. I’d be interested to know how many people worried about the banning of books have read a book in the last 12 months.

We’re 4 days in. So far, I’m surviving without glitter glue and a new wet suit. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

There was a list of specific items and specific exemptions.

Was there? Where would one find that?

Edit:

Ah, I've found their 'guidance' page on what they say should and shouldn't happen but it took some doing down several steps and several links (and it's still very wishy washy! see below).

Quote

The products and services which can be sold (or hired out) in stores are any products which would normally be sold in:

  • food and drink retailers (including off licences)
  • newsagents
  • building supplies and hardware stores
  • pharmacies and chemists
  • bicycle shops
  • petrol stations
  • garages and vehicle hire businesses
  • post offices, banks, building societies and similar
  • pet shops
  • agricultural and aquacultural supplies shops; and
  • livestock markets and auctions

Not sure I've found the corresponding legislation that indicates what the law does and doesn't allow.

Edited by snowychap
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18 minutes ago, snowychap said:

Was there? Where would one find that?

The list I had was actually a supermarket list that had been drawn up with the govt. and I deleted it again about 5 minutes ago.

I’ll go and find another copy. But, yes, no, it wasn’t a list on the government website. Back in a tick...

 

so... from the govt website:

Quote

The products and services which can be sold (or hired out) in stores are any products which would normally be sold in:

  • food and drink retailers (including off licences)
  • newsagents
  • building supplies and hardware stores
  • pharmacies and chemists
  • bicycle shops
  • petrol stations
  • garages and vehicle hire businesses
  • post offices, banks, building societies and similar
  • pet shops
  • agricultural and aquacultural supplies shops; and
  • livestock markets and auctions

 

 

The example points out that if a post office or garage or shop would ordinarily sell batteries or lightbulbs etc., they still can.

I think the only thing actually banned is the Redkanpp autobiography. But other toilet papers are still available.

Then, from a supermarket interpretation. What happened here, was someone read non-essential and presumed everything and anything on the list was ‘banned’, because they didn’t read it properly:

ElP963rXYAAGPci?format=jpg&name=900x900

Then, there is the tale of the Tesco that banned sanitary towels as non-essential. What actually happened, the fancied off an aisle due to a break in, and someone took a picture and tweeted it.

Then, you have Davina McCall and her famous in depth knowledge of Welsh Covid legislation, persuading her followers on twitter to sign a petition. That she doesn’t live in Wales, and thousands of them don’t, wasn’t really occurring to any of them.

From my own personal lived experience. I went shopping in a Lidl in Cardiff today, I bought everything I wanted including a toothbrush. The coffee shops around Barry Island are open. I could buy a towel or a book if I really really wanted one. My local petrol station mini market is fully open selling everything they usually sell, as is the Sainsbury’s Local down the end of my street.

The BBC have said there is ‘widespread confusion’ then had a poll where 78% of people thought everything was fine!

I suspect a strong link between brexit voters / mask objectors / people who suddenly urgently need a wok.

Other experiences in other towns may differ. 

 

Edited by chrisp65
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