Generic Virus Thread

[Stevo985]

54 minutes ago, Chindie said:

Less weirdly obsessed with his council tax.

Maybe that's why he didn't pay his council tax, because he must owe about 60 grand in fines

[HanoiVillan]

1 hour ago, choffer said:

Anyone else noticed the Minister briefing just now in Parliament clicking his pen throughout? It was almost like he clicked it every time he lied. 

One of the most humanising things I've read about this government TBH. I can't stop clicking, spinning, opening and closing and throwing my pens gently from hand to hand, even during classes. 

[blandy]

59 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

This is a new video of his, it’s looking specifically at the case for a second lockdown in the autumn. 

Thanks. I'd just assumed it was the same one.

On his first fact, that's still nonsense, as before.

point 2 - Yes. This is one of the things with covi - no one, or statistically next to no-one, dies of it, people die with it, because it compounds existing vulnerabilities, and these vulnerabilities are much more prevalent in various groups - the very aged, the already unwell and so on.

Point 3. Looking at the UK, rather than Ireland, what he's saying is not valid for the UK. In the UK approximately 17000 people die of flu in a year, we've already seen 2 and a half times that number die with covid recorded on their death certificate and three times the number of "excess deaths than the 17000 per year from flu. So point 3 is not valid for the UK at all.  

from the ONS analysed by Public Health England

 

Point 4. He has, I think more of a point here, but it's too early to tell. In the video he says "there's no reason to expect a second wave..." at 3:07 minutes. Well, in the UK there's some evidence of the start of a second wave. But it's hard to tell, because although the number of recorded cases is rocketing, the source of the data is basically completely different. In the first wave it was largely people being confirmed positive after being admitted to hospital and tested there. Now it is people being tested at test sites, without being so ill, or even ill at all necessarily, that are being counted. Hospital admissions are where they were in the third week of march, around lockdown time. We'll know in a couple of weeks if we've got a second wave, but the signs are that we may have one. We lack data.

Point 5. The same applies as for point 4, in terms of the UK. In some regions evidence suggests that hospital admissions are getting towards the capacity to cope. Again, it's a week or two early to tell.

Now to his last graph (below) and the "dangerous hysteria" point.

I'd say, for the UK, at the moment the absence of evidence (as I mentioned above, we're a couple of weeks or so short of being able to start to tell from the data) suggests his claim at the moment can't be argued against using data. It's basically emotive / economic, not health based. In other words people are right to warn of dangerous hysteria right up until the point that dangerous hysteria (or a calm version of it) becomes necessary. So lockdown (nationally) would fit his claim of overkill based on the data available. The politicians though are weighing up the risks and having a different set of considerations. One of which is "if we don't act (to reduce the spread) and we get a rapid rise in deaths and hospitalisations, we're going to be crucified versus "if we act, it's expensive and costs jobs and causes widespread hardship to many, many, more people than is absolutely unavoidable".

And that last bit, for me, is why they have to sort out track and trace urgently. If you can catch people with the virus, rapidly identify those they have been in contact with and therefore rapidly get them all to isolate, you stop the spread, and everyone else can crack on with their lives. At the moment they're woefully short of being able to do that.

A last thing is they seem to be going for (or have they abandoned it for being stupid, because it is) a massive "moonshot" millions of people a day testing programme. The more people you test, the more false positives you'll get - people recorded as having it, when they don't have it, with the knock on that they and those they've come into contact with all have to isolate. If you test a million people a day, and have just 1% false positive results, that's 10,000 people a day, plus all those they've contacted wrongly having to self-isolate. Or if you take the population of the UK, 660,000 people wrongly affected. At 2% error rate it's 1.2 million and so on. Therefore they need to concentrate first on speed from test to result to identifying and contacting, their, contacts. And then you need to set the scale and target testing accordingly - so airports, points of entry, particular types of employment and so on and so forth.

[HanoiVillan]

@blandy One 'Operation Moonshot' developed I noticed was last week:

Doubts over Number 10's £100billion 'Operation Moonshot' plan as mass-testing scheme of all 250,000 people in Salford is scaled back just to at-risk residents

'Doubts have been raised once again over the Government's £100billion 'Operation Moonshot' testing plan after one mass-screening programme was paused and then scaled back.

Ministers had aimed to provide regular testing to all 254,000 residents in Salford, Greater Manchester, to allow them to lead 'normal' lives again without the need for social distancing. 

They were to be offered rapid saliva tests that give results in 20 to 90 minutes, with the hope of finding an effective way of achieving the goal of carrying out 10million tests a day by the end of the year.

But six weeks after its launch the trial has been scaled back to those who are most at-risk and living in 'some areas' of 'high-density housing'.

The U-turn comes amid concern over the accuracy of the no-swab Optigene LAMP tests used and throws more pressure on ministers to achieve their colossal aim of 10million swabs a day by December.

Its current target is 500,000 swabs a day by the end of October, but industry leaders have already warned they are 'a few weeks behind' the deadline due to problems in the supply chain. 

Yesterday 219,000 swabs were processed but government data shows at least half of all people taking tests wait at least 48 hours for their results.

[...]

the scheme was struggling to attract even 250 participants in Salford to get it started

[...]

A spokesman said the pilot was focusing on testing in 'high-risk' environments and groups only, while it will 'continue' to offer tests to residents in 'some areas' of 'high-density housing'.

They added: 'The no-swab Optigene LAMP test used in the Salford pilot is ongoing and has already proven to be effective.' 

The no-swabbing method - which relies on two enzymes to convert the virus' protein strands into DNA - was touted as a 'game-changer' for its speed.

But scientists have warned it is less accurate than other methods and only a few dozen samples can be run at a time.

A trial carried out at the Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, found it could detect the virus in nearly 90 per cent of the 248 people assessed. 

Lead study author, Vincent Pelechano, told Nature the test could be less accurate for some samples, such as those contaminated with blood.'

more on link: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8838265/Doubts-Number-10s-100billion-Operation-Moonshot-plan.html

[blandy]

11 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

One 'Operation Moonshot' development I noticed was last week

Ta. Basically the operation moonshot thing can be summed up as a load of ol' bollex. just some crap that came out of Johnson's pie hole, that as usual has no credibility, no sound basis and little or no thought. The similarity with Trump is uncanny at times.

[villakram]

3 hours ago, blandy said:

We discussed it many pages back when it was first posted.

I'm not going to go back and find it, but the first 30 seconds contains a massive flaw. He says "we know lockdowns have a minimal, if any, real positive effect [on reducing the spread of the virus]" - that's utter rubbish. We know absolutely that the virus spreads through people coming into close proximity with others  - via droplets in the air, or via touching infected surfaces and then spreading from th hands to the face. If you prevent people from mixing, then we know this reduces the spread....and so on.

It's not that everything he says is wrong, it isn't. It's just that he's basing a lot of his argument on a complete falsehood, so it is biased towards an outcome.

If lockdowns worked, then why are we having to do them a second time?

The key here is in how you define "worked", i.e., gets rid of the virus or suppresses the virus only during the time when the economy is destroyed and civil rights are abrogated.

Lockdowns are being used to do the first option, which clearly does not work. Real world data demonstrates this to be true.

[blandy]

40 minutes ago, villakram said:

If lockdowns worked, then why are we having to do them a second time?

The key here is in how you define "worked", i.e., gets rid of the virus or suppresses the virus only during the time when the economy is destroyed and civil rights are abrogated.

Lockdowns are being used to do the first option, which clearly does not work. Real world data demonstrates this to be true.

The express purpose of the lockdown in the UK was to "flatten the curve" to stop the NHS being overwhelmed with cases. It was to stop the alarming rise in deaths and serious admissions to hospital from the virus.

It did that. It was done as a medical/public health priority, in full knowledge that it would be economically harmful, which of course it was.

The time bought for the NHS should have allowed effective and efficient planning for testing and tracing, for treatment improvements, for knowledge learning and sharing and so on. To plan for a gradual return to a more open society and freedoms.

[PaulC]

Yes the original lockdown worked because it was severe and there was a level of compliance. What they are doing now with level three local lockdowns will not have anywhere near the same effect imo 

[blandy]

2 hours ago, PaulC said:

Yes the original lockdown worked because it was severe and there was a level of compliance. What they are doing now with level three local lockdowns will not have anywhere near the same effect imo 

Yeah - even the Gov't's own scientists say the same Paul.

[Davkaus]

Imagine studying for 2 years, paying 27k tuition fees, and then putting yourself in a position where you probably get kicked out and have a 10k fine on top. No degree, and they'll have to either transfer and finish it somewhere else, if anywhere will take them, or tell employers what they've been doing for 2 years and why they don't have a degree. Whoops.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-54631524

Quote

Four university students have been fined £10,000 each after telling police who broke up their house party they were "spoiling their fun".

Officers on patrol spotted a party in Lenton, Nottingham, on Tuesday night but were told everyone had left.

But inside they found more than 30 people hiding and, when challenged, organisers complained they should be having the "time of their lives".

Nottingham Trent University said the third-year students had been suspended.

Mixing of households or support bubbles indoors has been banned since Nottingham went into tier two restrictions on 14 October.

On Tuesday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said talks over moving Nottinghamshire into tier three were "ongoing" but the city council's leader said no discussions had started.

Nottingham had the highest level of infection in England for nine days running, with many of the cases centring on areas with a high student population.

Police said after being told the party in Kimbolton Lane had ended, officers found people hiding in the kitchen, upstairs bedrooms and basement.

 

[villakram]

5 hours ago, blandy said:

The express purpose of the lockdown in the UK was to "flatten the curve" to stop the NHS being overwhelmed with cases. It was to stop the alarming rise in deaths and serious admissions to hospital from the virus.

It did that. It was done as a medical/public health priority, in full knowledge that it would be economically harmful, which of course it was.

The time bought for the NHS should have allowed effective and efficient planning for testing and tracing, for treatment improvements, for knowledge learning and sharing and so on. To plan for a gradual return to a more open society and freedoms.

Right, so why is it being done now? The curve is not a problem now, nor is hospital capacity.

 

 

[chrisp65]

33 minutes ago, villakram said:

Right, so why is it being done now? The curve is not a problem now, nor is hospital capacity.

 

 

Interested in your claim hospital capacity isn’t a problem

950 a day being admitted to hospital but only 140 a day dying and freeing up beds.

When do you think capacity could be an issue?

[ender4]

1 hour ago, Davkaus said:

Imagine studying for 2 years, paying 27k tuition fees, and then putting yourself in a position where you probably get kicked out and have a 10k fine on top. No degree, and they'll have to either transfer and finish it somewhere else, if anywhere will take them, or tell employers what they've been doing for 2 years and why they don't have a degree. Whoops.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-54631524

 

Not sure why Nottingham uni have suspended the students - what their students do in their private life in their own home is none of their business.    
If they’ve broken the law (as is clearly the case here), then that’s a police matter, not a matter for the supplier of a unrelated service that they’ve paid for.

[blandy]

1 hour ago, villakram said:

Right, so why is it being done now? The curve is not a problem now, nor is hospital capacity.

Capacity (as I understand it) is a problem in some areas of the UK.

I sort of share your apparent sceptical eye on it. I don’t trust the UK or English government to get anything right. I try to understand the data and work out what it means. It seems to me that the covi is spreading and growing nationwide, but in some places faster than others. Hence measures aimed at reducing that spread.

[PaulC]

1 hour ago, villakram said:

Right, so why is it being done now? The curve is not a problem now, nor is hospital capacity.

 

 

It is reaching capacity in some areas as are ventilators 

[OutByEaster?]

There are nightingale hospitals that are yet to see a single patient.

There are nightingale hospitals that cannot be manned because the NHS doesn't have enough staff to operate the additional beds - it's worth keeping in mind that capacity isn't just a matter of counting beds or ventilators - there are lots of ways capacity can be reached in the system.

 

 

 

[bickster]

9 hours ago, villakram said:

The curve is not a problem now, nor is hospital capacity

Come to Liverpool and say that. We are at capacity and have more patients in hospital with Covid than we did in the first wave.

Ironically at the back of the main hospital in the new hospital, unfinished, a victim of the Carrillion collapse. Standing there as a monument to Tory incompetence and money for their mates, their shit at running anything mates.

[OutByEaster?]

3 hours ago, bickster said:

Ironically at the back of the main hospital in the new hospital, unfinished, a victim of the Carrillion collapse. Standing there as a monument to Tory incompetence and money for their mates, their shit at running anything mates.

We've got one of those in Smethwick. 

 

[darrenm]

3 hours ago, OutByEaster? said:

There are nightingale hospitals that are yet to see a single patient.

There are nightingale hospitals that cannot be manned because the NHS doesn't have enough staff to operate the additional beds - it's worth keeping in mind that capacity isn't just a matter of counting beds or ventilators - there are lots of ways capacity can be reached in the system.

 

 

 

My wife's haematology department was very close to being overwhelmed during the first spike purely because of the amount of people self isolating or shielding. The department itself had nothing to do because all of their routine work stopped but was very close to not having enough staff to keep the department open.

Yes you can stop people self isolating but then they may be spreading it around the hospital and creating a much bigger problem. The point at which the NHS gets overwhelmed is much lower than some people might think because of all the compound factors with the staff.

[Demitri_C]

20 hours ago, villakram said:

If lockdowns worked, then why are we having to do them a second time?

The key here is in how you define "worked", i.e., gets rid of the virus or suppresses the virus only during the time when the economy is destroyed and civil rights are abrogated.

Lockdowns are being used to do the first option, which clearly does not work. Real world data demonstrates this to be true.

It didnt work because we went and invited people to travel again. Pure stupidity by world leaders. Should have only let citizeins leave to their respected countries or exceptional circumstances.  Holidays  not allowed outside the uk. They should have encouraged the uk public to spend money in the uk to help the economy with some incentives. This would protect jobs and keep money in the uk.

Yeah i know the airlines would have been in trouble but they could have maybe given them a financial package to help them while they are closed.