Generic Virus Thread

[HanoiVillan]

Stolen from a locked account, but so true (in both ways):

[markavfc40]

@HanoiVillan I think the suggestion is that you use those 3 weeks to sort out test and trace. Much like we should have used those spring/summer months to sort it out.

[Davkaus]

3 minutes ago, markavfc40 said:

@HanoiVillan I think the suggestion is that you use those 3 weeks to sort out test and trace. Much like we should have used those spring/summer months to sort it out.

Don't know what you're talking about, isn't our system world leading?

[PaulC]

I dont think you can put a time limit on national lockdown. Kim Starmer's suggestion is all well and good but I think there would be enough people not obey it, particularly the young that it will just reduce it a bit and come out of lockdown it will strat surging again, especially now winters on its way. 

[bickster]

3 minutes ago, PaulC said:

Starmer's suggestion is all well and good

It isn't Starmer's suggestion, its what SAGE reccomended WEEKS AGO

[Genie]

5 minutes ago, PaulC said:

I dont think you can put a time limit on national lockdown. Kim Starmer's suggestion is all well and good but I think there would be enough people not obey it, particularly the young that it will just reduce it a bit and come out of lockdown it will strat surging again, especially now winters on its way. 

In the modelling of these things they factor in a percentage of the population not obeying it (politicians and the like).

[PaulC]

11 minutes ago, bickster said:

It isn't Starmer's suggestion, its what SAGE reccomended WEEKS AGO

I know week ago it would have worked

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

35 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

Don't know what you're talking about, isn't our system world leading?

A well thought out system of people wearing different colored hats would be more successful at this point I fear.

You could monitor it from above,  break the 1.5 metre rule and a drone bombs you or sends you a sms.

[HanoiVillan]

51 minutes ago, markavfc40 said:

@HanoiVillan I think the suggestion is that you use those 3 weeks to sort out test and trace. Much like we should have used those spring/summer months to sort it out.

The response to that though is twofold isn't it, firstly obviously the government that has had since the spring to sort out this system is not going to do so, and secondly even if they were minded to I very much doubt 3 weeks would buy them enough time to improve it sufficiently. I don't see the point of proceeding as if we had a better or more responsible government than the one we actually have.

[HanoiVillan]

One thing I think I would add to the above is that we may not be asking the right questions. The relevant issue is probably not 'do the Tories want a working track and trace system?' or 'are they competent enough to create one?', but instead 'does the British state have the capacity, after years of outsourcing and privatisation, to tackle this challenge?' Because as far as I can see, whether we get a system that works or not is down to Serco and their ilk.

[darrenm]

Surely the point of a circuit breaker lockdown is entirely that - to break the circuit.

It cuts transmission down to below 1 so it stops the current exponential growth which would continue without intervention.

It won't be for track and trace to start up again because as @HanoiVillan rightly says, they've had months, why would they need another 3 weeks to sort it when they obviously just can't?

But there's no choice but to do something and if a 2 or 3 week harder lockdown can reset the rate back under 1 then it buys more time to open up the possibility of better local lockdowns and running down the clock until the inevitable vaccine endgame.

[Davkaus]

There's nothing inevitable about a vaccine.

[snowychap]

26 minutes ago, darrenm said:

if a 2 or 3 week harder lockdown can reset the rate back under 1 then it buys more time to open up the possibility of better local lockdowns

Ha ha ha ha.

[darrenm]

22 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

There's nothing inevitable about a vaccine.

I beg to differ on that one

[villakram]

1 hour ago, Davkaus said:

There's nothing inevitable about a vaccine.

This. There is no vaccine on the horizon, all the current phase 3 candidates are immune system stimulants, we'll be lucky if they have something that is as effective as the flu vaccine, doubly so given the numerous different flavors of covid doing the rounds globally.

[WhatAboutTheFinish]

6 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

The response to that though is twofold isn't it, firstly obviously the government that has had since the spring to sort out this system is not going to do so, and secondly even if they were minded to I very much doubt 3 weeks would buy them enough time to improve it sufficiently. I don't see the point of proceeding as if we had a better or more responsible government than the one we actually have.

 

6 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

One thing I think I would add to the above is that we may not be asking the right questions. The relevant issue is probably not 'do the Tories want a working track and trace system?' or 'are they competent enough to create one?', but instead 'does the British state have the capacity, after years of outsourcing and privatisation, to tackle this challenge?' Because as far as I can see, whether we get a system that works or not is down to Serco and their ilk.

Haven’t you just listed the problem with centralisation and then advocated for more centralisation in the space of two posts? 

[LondonLax]

8 hours ago, markavfc40 said:

@HanoiVillan I think the suggestion is that you use those 3 weeks to sort out test and trace. Much like we should have used those spring/summer months to sort it out.

It would take a lot longer than three weeks. It took Melbourne 8 weeks of hard lockdown to get numbers low enough to get a test and trace viable and they had much fewer numbers to start with. 

 

[dudevillaisnice]

With Brexit on the horizon and if no deal with the EU is in place. Any potential Food shortages etc... would be the ideal time to lockdown one would think. 

[HanoiVillan]

4 hours ago, WhatAboutTheFinish said:

 

Haven’t you just listed the problem with centralisation and then advocated for more centralisation in the space of two posts? 

No. 

EDIT: Sorry, being a bit terse this morning - to give you a better response, I'm not suggesting that a TTI system organised from central government and conducted by local health teams is impossible. It isn't, and this seems to be essentially the template from other countries that have made a successful TTI system. What I am saying is that we wouldn't be able to create such a system in 3 weeks, and that the government are either ideologically committed to a privatised solution or organisationally committed to graft, depending on your perspective, so are not interested in not outsourcing the problem to Serco and Deloitte regardless.

FURTHER EDIT: . . . and the above is a large part of the reason why I think a 'circuit breaker' lockdown is pointless, and just adds hardship for no benefit.

Edited October 14, 2020 by HanoiVillan

[Genie]

If Boris the Brexiteer can’t do a deal with the EU, on top of the shambolic handling of the pandemic then he needs to be locked up for crimes against the nation.