Generic Virus Thread

[Genie]

3 minutes ago, bickster said:

20-39 ball park? You mean the age group that has children...

I don't know how anyone can say with any confidence that the biggest group of people being infected (30-39) are because of kids in school, but only a tiny percentage are because of the pubs being open. It doesn't sound very plausible to me.

Source (the S*n website)

[bickster]

@Genie when did the schools go back? Its right there in that data,  The pubs and restaurants were pretty much open the whole time apart from the first week in that chart. flat flat flat.... last week in August... boom!

[Genie]

Kids went back first week of September but the spike had already started 1-3 weeks beforehand (and that’s not including any incubation time for symptoms to show). 

Schools are absolutely contributing to it, but they are not responsible for it imo. It’s the general easing of restrictions across the board.

 

[Chindie]

Remarkably if you tell the entire population to get back to **** work in the middle of a pandemic, suddenly the working age people are going to get numbers rising. Combine with schools, universities... Voila! Second wave.

[ml1dch]

What an embarrassing shambles that man is.

 

 

[Genie]

1 hour ago, ml1dch said:

What an embarrassing shambles that man is.

 

 

He’ll probably be quick to stress it’s not a u-turn, it’s a cock up.

[desensitized43]

18 minutes ago, Genie said:

He’ll probably be quick to stress it’s not a u-turn, it’s a cock up.

Clarity and leadership

[darrenm]

4 hours ago, bickster said:

@Genie when did the schools go back? Its right there in that data,  The pubs and restaurants were pretty much open the whole time apart from the first week in that chart. flat flat flat.... last week in August... boom!

When you see how rapidly a cold has gone through every school in the UK (and speaking to people in the USA, over there too) as soon as the kids went back, it's obvious that COVID would tear through kids at school in the exact same way.

[Genie]

45 minutes ago, darrenm said:

When you see how rapidly a cold has gone through every school in the UK (and speaking to people in the USA, over there too) as soon as the kids went back, it's obvious that COVID would tear through kids at school in the exact same way.

Is there any data around for school attendance since returning in September? I’ve been surprised how few reports there are of outbreaks near me. My children’s school has been fully open so far.

[mjmooney]

On 28/09/2020 at 14:16, desensitized43 said:

Just out of interest, what's everyones thoughts on the NHS tracing app?

I must admit I'm a bit sceptical about it. Not because I'm afraid of it stealing my data and all that - that horse bolted a long time ago. Thinking out loud (and I'd be happy to get some responses): 
(1) I suspect it will have a low takeup
(2) If somebody has tested positive, surely they shouldn't be walking around in public to be near me anyway, should they? 
(3) Given that, and they ARE doing so, are they likely to conscientiously record this in their app, so as to 'incriminate' themselves? EDIT: Oh yeah, it's anonymous. Supposedly. But still, positive cases shouldn't be out there. So if the app picks up any significant numbers, it'll show that self-isolating isn't happening. 

(4) Or have I misunderstood this? Does it save up all the details of every (uninfected) app user I walk past, and tell me LATER (days? weeks? months?) if they then get a positive test (and remember to record it in the app)? 

 

Edited September 29, 2020 by mjmooney

[darrenm]

1 hour ago, Genie said:

Is there any data around for school attendance since returning in September? I’ve been surprised how few reports there are of outbreaks near me. My children’s school has been fully open so far.

There was a tracker map which I think was updated by teachers so no idea if it was confirmed cases or a teacher reporting a case which wasn't confirmed.

Weirdly, it's disappeared off the face of the earth. Unless my Google-fu is severely off tempo.

The problem is of course, kids aren't affected by it by and large. But they'll pass it around and take it home to adults who are affected who then test positive.

[bickster]

2 hours ago, Genie said:

Is there any data around for school attendance since returning in September? I’ve been surprised how few reports there are of outbreaks near me. My children’s school has been fully open so far.

Don't know about Data but I know in Liverpool (just Liverpool, not Merseyside) there are 8000 kids and 300 teachers not currently in school because of outbreaks

EDIT: Updated stats from figures for today

EDIT2: it's more than 100 schools across Merseyside that are now either closed or partially affected

[Genie]

I just found this report in the guardian dated 22/09.

 Some of the stats

Quote

The DfE’s figures revealed that 4% of state schools were classed as “not fully open” last week... The DfE defines schools as “fully open” if they are able to provide face-to-face teaching for all pupils on roll for the whole school day and they have not asked a group of pupils to self-isolate. 

Quote

Just 87% of pupils were recorded as attending, compared with 88% the previous week.

Quote

Typically fewer than 5% of pupils are absent, according to a different dataset, which suggests 600,000 may have been absent for coronavirus-related issues.

 

[KentVillan]

13 hours ago, bickster said:

@Genie when did the schools go back? Its right there in that data,  The pubs and restaurants were pretty much open the whole time apart from the first week in that chart. flat flat flat.... last week in August... boom!

Sitting outside a pub in August is a bit different from what's happening now the weather has turned. Plus the govt actively encouraged people to return to offices. Not sure you can pin the rise on any one particular thing - definitely not from eyeballing a line graph, anyway.

[Genie]

8 hours ago, KentVillan said:

Sitting outside a pub in August is a bit different from what's happening now the weather has turned. Plus the govt actively encouraged people to return to offices. Not sure you can pin the rise on any one particular thing - definitely not from eyeballing a line graph, anyway.

There’s a small uptick around 2nd week of August and then a big one in the 4th week. I’d assume people picked up the virus a week or so before then, any idea what decisions were made around then? Was it the continued push to getting back in office blocks / public transport?

Maybe it was general complacency as people started to think things were back to normal.

Thinking about it I guess it’s summer holiday season mainly contributing to it. 

Edited September 30, 2020 by Genie

[snowychap]

A long video explanation (45 mins) of the self-isolation regulations but it's important that people know their obligations (and potential offences, large penalty notices and who can issue them*) under these regulations, whether they're individuals, employees, workers, employers or corporate bodies:

 

* The designated person stuff is around the 32 minute mark -- it's a very wide range of possibles!

[mjmooney]

1 hour ago, snowychap said:

A long video explanation (45 mins) of the self-isolation regulations but it's important that people know their obligations (and potential offences, large penalty notices and who can issue them*) under these regulations, whether they're individuals, employees, workers, employers or corporate bodies:

 

* The designated person stuff is around the 32 minute mark -- it's a very wide range of possibles!

tl;dw 

We have a slight dilemma: one of our daughters comes round to our house once or twice a week with her nine month old baby - she does her WFH in our study, while we mind the baby. Now I know there is an exemption for childcare, but is she allowed to stay in our house for work purposes? I'd argue that she is. But that raises another question: can they come round on a day when she's not working? If the answer is 'no', that is somewhat absurd, as there is literally NO difference in the two scenarios. 

[Genie]

9 minutes ago, mjmooney said:

If the answer is 'no', that is somewhat absurd, as there is literally NO difference in the two scenarios. 

Apart from one scenario generates tax for the government somewhere along the lines and one scenario doesn’t.

[snowychap]

15 minutes ago, mjmooney said:

tl;dw 

We have a slight dilemma: one of our daughters comes round to our house once or twice a week with her nine month old baby - she does her WFH in our study, while we mind the baby. Now I know there is an exemption for childcare, but is she allowed to stay in our house for work purposes? I'd argue that she is. But that raises another question: can they come round on a day when she's not working? If the answer is 'no', that is somewhat absurd, as there is literally NO difference in the two scenarios. 

Erm, without looking in detail at the precise regulations, and even then it wouldn't necessarily be clear (which is a theme of all Mr Wagner's comments), one couldn't be sure.

You'd need to look at the support bubble stuff, the exemptions for childcare, the exemptions for working, the other exemptions, &c.

As you say, I can't see that one should be okay and another shouldn't but I thought there were anomalies like people providing childcare services (i.e. paid for provision) in their own home and having those same children there if not being paid.

My question would be are the 'wfh' arrangements that your daughter has from your home, not hers, actually permitted under any local restrictions that apply?

[mjmooney]

8 minutes ago, snowychap said:

My question would be are the 'wfh' arrangements that your daughter has from your home, not hers, actually permitted under any local restrictions that apply?

Er... dunno. It ain't easy to find out. But if it is, then as far as anyone's concerned she is working every time. 

Edited September 30, 2020 by mjmooney