Generic Virus Thread

[blandy]

2 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Are there? 'Significant' how? Significant as in, you like one more than the other, or significant as in, makes a difference to the transmission of the virus? And if the latter, how do you know?

That lack of evidence should be telling you something in itself. After all, we are not short of evidence of the dangers of hospitals, factories, prisons and care homes.

Behavioural science which the UK is using needs to take into account UK behaviours. To illustrate that different cultures have different behaviours compare somewhere like S.Korea or Japan with the US in terms of adherence to willingly wear masks, or socially distance. Compare the Behaviours of German politicians with those of our politicians.

The UK has hundreds and hundreds of beaches and generally cooler weather. Many European nations have no beaches at all and many European nations have much hotter weather in summer (especially this wet summer).

The absence of evidence is not evidence on which to "go with the science". The point I'm trying to make is that Brits + alchohol + easing of lockdown and relatively rare sunshine creates a set of circumstances which are, if not completely unique, at least different enough to take into account in behavioural modelling and such like.

 

[HanoiVillan]

2 minutes ago, blandy said:

Behavioural science which the UK is using needs to take into account UK behaviours. To illustrate that different cultures have different behaviours compare somewhere like S.Korea or Japan with the US in terms of adherence to willingly wear masks, or socially distance. Compare the Behaviours of German politicians with those of our politicians.

The UK has hundreds and hundreds of beaches and generally cooler weather. Many European nations have no beaches at all and many European nations have much hotter weather in summer (especially this wet summer).

The absence of evidence is not evidence on which to "go with the science". The point I'm trying to make is that Brits + alchohol + easing of lockdown and relatively rare sunshine creates a set of circumstances which are, if not completely unique, at least different enough to take into account in behavioural modelling and such like.

 

Until you have some evidence that this 'different, if not completely unique behaviour' has an effect on coronavirus transmission, then I fail to see what the relevance of it is.

[blandy]

1 minute ago, HanoiVillan said:

I fail to see what the relevance of it is.

Cool. Each to their own. I'll leave it there.

[Xela]

5 hours ago, Genie said:

To go back to the previous point, why do you think England doing so much worse than Wales/Scotland/NI?

Demographics? Population density? Combination of both?

[Genie]

Just watching Channel 4 news, people coming back from Spain saying no Covid tests or even temperature checks at all on arrival in the UK. They only had to fill in a form. 
This rushed ruling just doesn’t feel legit, why rush it in and suffer all the fall out for a country which on the whole is safer than here?

Feels like a political manoeuvre of some kind.

Edited July 27, 2020 by Genie

[ChrisVillan]

18 minutes ago, Genie said:

Just watching Channel 4 news, people coming back from Spain saying no Covid tests or even temperature checks at all on arrival in the UK. They only had to fill in a form. 
This rushed ruling just doesn’t feel legit, why rush it in and suffer all the fall out for a country which on the whole is safer than here?

Feels like a political manoeuvre of some kind.

Identical to my arrival from Spain before the cut-off.

[HanoiVillan]

1 hour ago, Xela said:

Demographics? Population density? Combination of both?

Somehow missed that question in all the fun, but at these low levels of community transmission, it will probably be the case that Wales and Scotland have eliminated or nearly eliminated the virus from the most at-risk sub populations (such as care homes) whereas England hasn't quite. 

[Genie]

I assume it’s still ok to go to Florida with its spiralling 10,000 cases a day without having to quarantine on return?

[villakram]

2 hours ago, blandy said:

Behavioural science which the UK is using needs to take into account UK behaviours. To illustrate that different cultures have different behaviours compare somewhere like S.Korea or Japan with the US in terms of adherence to willingly wear masks, or socially distance. Compare the Behaviours of German politicians with those of our politicians.

The UK has hundreds and hundreds of beaches and generally cooler weather. Many European nations have no beaches at all and many European nations have much hotter weather in summer (especially this wet summer).

The absence of evidence is not evidence on which to "go with the science". The point I'm trying to make is that Brits + alchohol + easing of lockdown and relatively rare sunshine creates a set of circumstances which are, if not completely unique, at least different enough to take into account in behavioural modelling and such like.

 

Wow, a culturally aware virus.

Or, create a plot of deaths normalized by population and you'll see that the virus kills Chinese just as happily as The English or French/Spanish/Italian/American... bottoms and fannies be damned! 

[blandy]

4 minutes ago, villakram said:

Wow, a culturally aware virus.

Or, create a plot of deaths normalized by population and you'll see that the virus kills Chinese just as happily as The English or French/Spanish/Italian/American... bottoms and fannies be damned! 

It's not that. It's behaviour at and journeying to and from a beach. Brits failing to socially distance because they've been let out on a rare sunny day and decide to have a beer & barbeque session on the beach, then visit and queue for toilets, parking meters, ice creams, kicking footballs around and frisbees and so on. These increase the risk of transmission. People have to clean up all the litter and detritus left behind by messy, drunken Brits. It's not that one person safely distanced from another on a beach is inherently a problem - it's not. It's failure to observe distancing, littering, queuing for the loos when under the influence....beachballs and whatever being hoofed or thrown around and being fetched back from strangers. Behaviour of a population isn't the same everywhere. In the UK there are issues with drunken behaviour, younger people failing to distance...and so on. That's not at the same levels in all nations.

And because beaches attract people from far and wide, any transmission is unlikely to be seen or picked up on because we have a wholly inadequate track and trace system. This ought to be factored in to Gov't advice. The degree to which it is a factor is less than (say) in a pub indoors, but there is some increased risk. It has been pointed out already that Bournemout saw a small-ish increase on locals being infected. Unless somehow it was just locals, which is highly unlikely, who else carried virus off to wherever? and then caused hotspots when they got back to their homes and workplaces? We can't know because the system is not able to trace sufficiently.

[Demitri_C]

1 hour ago, Genie said:

Just watching Channel 4 news, people coming back from Spain saying no Covid tests or even temperature checks at all on arrival in the UK. They only had to fill in a form. 
This rushed ruling just doesn’t feel legit, why rush it in and suffer all the fall out for a country which on the whole is safer than here?

Feels like a political manoeuvre of some kind.

I know i sound harsh but all the people who are complaining about the governments 14 day isolation im sorry i have no sympathy. This was ways going to be a risk the rate going up and slmethjng like being imposed again.

If your gonna risk going abroad you gotta expect this kind of thing

[Xann]

A friend has had a heart attack near Nantes tonight. It's a proper shitshow. His family are out there, but can't visit him in hospital because of Covid.

He's going to be there for at least 10 days after a bypass op.

 

[HanoiVillan]

4 hours ago, blandy said:

It's not that. It's behaviour at and journeying to and from a beach. Brits failing to socially distance because they've been let out on a rare sunny day and decide to have a beer & barbeque session on the beach, then visit and queue for toilets, parking meters, ice creams, kicking footballs around and frisbees and so on.

Yes, I can see how foreign people wouldn't need to use toilets, pay for parking, eat ice cream or entertain themselves when they visit beaches, unlike us.

4 hours ago, blandy said:

It's failure to observe distancing, littering, queuing for the loos when under the influence....beachballs and whatever being hoofed or thrown around and being fetched back from strangers.

The reason I keep asking for evidence is because without it the conversation just turns into moralistic moaning. Littering and catching the virus from touching a beachball???

[snowychap]

11 hours ago, Demitri_C said:

I know i sound harsh but all the people who are complaining about the governments 14 day isolation im sorry i have no sympathy. This was ways going to be a risk the rate going up and slmethjng like being imposed again.

If your gonna risk going abroad you gotta expect this kind of thing

There are a couple of problems with this.

It's not going just to be people who have suddenly decided to go on holiday. It will be people who already had holidays booked and paid for and which were never (able to be) cancelled so it was a case of use it or lose it; it may well also be Spanish nationals who live in the UK who have taken the first opportunity (greenlit by the government) to go and visit family, friends and loved ones in Spain.

And the real problem is that the Government either don't seem to understand or don't care about (most likely both) the position of people being forced to isolate with respect to their employment rights (or potential lack of them), something which appears to run through all of the government's decisions made and 'guidance' given throughout the last four and a half months.

For all of the isolation requirements, there really ought to have been a proper policy in place that meant that, as much as possible, people were covered for having to follow advice and/or comply with the law.

Edited July 28, 2020 by snowychap

[blandy]

8 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

moralistic moaning. Littering and catching the virus from touching a beachball???

https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/news/local-news/major-incident-declared-thousands-descend-4264115

Quote

A major incident has been declared after thousands of people went against advice to stay away from the coast, descending on beaches on the hottest day of the year so far. BCP Council was left with resources overstretched as visitors to the beach flocked in their thousands, creating a number of significant issues.

Illegal parking, excessive waste, anti-social behaviour, gridlocked roads and prohibited camping have been just some of the issues faced by the council. Bournemouth’s beach was left strewn with 41 tonnes of waste as thousands flocked to the seaside during the lockdown heatwave, prompting the local council to declare a major incident.

Bloody councils and their moralistic moaning, and major incident declaring, eh?

[Demitri_C]

22 minutes ago, snowychap said:

There are a couple of problems with this.

It's not going just to be people who have suddenly decided to go on holiday. It will be people who already had holidays booked and paid for and which were never (able to be) cancelled so it was a case of use it or lose it; it may well also be Spanish nationals who live in the UK who have taken the first opportunity (greenlit by the government) to go and visit family, friends and loved ones in Spain.

And the real problem is that the Government either don't seem to understand or don't care about (most likely both) the position of people being forced to isolate with respect to their employment rights (or potential lack of them), something which appears to run through all of the government's decisions made and 'guidance' given throughout the last four and a half months.

For all of the isolation requirements, there really ought to have been a proper policy in place that meant that, as much as possible, people were covered for having to follow advice and/or comply with the law.

Lose it then like a lot of people are (myself included) i am meant to be going vegas ins September and i have accepted i am going tk have to take a hit and lose ose to £2k but what can i do? Id rather be safer than risk a) catching something b) getting stuck in the states c) having a a quarantine put on you.

Uk citizens could have flown back earlier befire this came in. Family i have known have done so from countries like spain and the eu.

I get there will be indivdual cases where you might go see a relative that could be sick abroad. Bjt again thats a risk its self as you can kill them by getting covid19 and passing it on to them.

If your gonna go my point is you cant moan about anything the uk decides to try keep us safe. Last thing we need is another breakout like spain

[Demitri_C]

Also to add snowy lets say someone goes to one of the badly infected places in spain then they go to work infect everyone in their office then what?

 

[Seat68]

Cases in the US appear to have plateaued. Just so happens that coincides with Trump asking for stats not to go directly to the CDC. 
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

 

Had to post a picture as the graphic is dynamic and couldn’t be linked on a phone. 

Edited July 28, 2020 by Seat68

[chrisp65]

I can’t help feeling that several weeks ago, the island was essentially closed. I could go over my parents and there were no parking spaces, the shops were closed, the fairground was closed the beach was all but empty other than residents that lived in walking distance.

Now, with a bit of warmth forecast for Friday, the bars and chip shops open, the car parks open, there will be thousands there this coming weekend. There will be accents from The Midlands and The Valleys all queuing for the same toilet block, for the same chips, for the same pay and display machine. Thousands that come down from Merthyr and Dudley will stop off at the petrol station on their way home and grab some bits n bobs from the Sainsbury on the corner.

Whilst there might not be a mass contamination event. i can’t help but feel i will be at greater risk next weekend, than I was two weeks ago.

I won’t be man handling their beach balls. But it’s not quite like that is it. Somebody from somewhere has to bring it in to an area and 3,000 people from outside, travelling a nice little 200 mile round trip from Bromsgrove heightens the risk. Not least, because they’ll be using the motorway services that the factory worker from Bristol used, on his way up country for his mental health well being trip to Ironbridge.

It’s not a moral judgement to suggest 7,000 on a beach is a bunch of dirty slackers. It’s self evident there is more risk mixing with more people from more places. It’s kind of literally how it spreads. How anything spreads.

As for the mental health of people that have been in lockdown, is there any evidence this has been heightened in nations that didn’t come out of lockdown early?

Yes, the vast majority of deaths are happening in care homes and we all understand viral load and we all can see that there are ethnicities that appear more vulnerable for some reason. But somebody took that virus in to the care home and it strikes me, that chance Of a care home worker here getting the virus is increased when people from Coventry and Aberdare meet up here to share a parking meter and a toilet door and then pop in to Sainsbury for snacks for the journey home. 

[snowychap]

5 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

Lose it then like a lot of people are (myself included) i am meant to be going vegas ins September and i have accepted i am going tk have to take a hit and lose ose to £2k but what can i do?

Well, that's a point of view but it would rather suggest your 'no sympathy' line comes from this specific place.

8 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

Uk citizens could have flown back earlier befire this came in. Family i have known have done so from countries like spain and the eu.

Erm, some could have and some did but there was very little notice (and I'm not sure I have much problem with that if the quarantine is actually there for the purpose of reducing the risk of bringing it back).

Again, the dismissive way in which you've phrased this suggests that you aren't thinking it through and coming to a conclusion but that you're just taking a position based on the 'no sympathy' line you've already decided to take.

11 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

If your gonna go my point is you cant moan about anything the uk decides to try keep us safe.

Well, that wasn't your point, Dem.

Your point was that you have 'no sympathy' with the people complaining about the quarantine being imposed (and the subsequent possible fall out for them).

You seem to have glossed over/completely ignored the fundamental point of my response which was about the effect of isolation requirements on people and especially their employment. To fail to have any sympathy with people who may not have foreseen the potential consequences in this area when the Foreign Secretary himself is on the TV on the day that the restriction comes in to force giving out what may be seen as, at best, misleading advice is a pretty extreme position to take.