Generic Virus Thread

[chrisp65]

Yeah, I’ve been on loads of ships. They are mostly indoors.

Rowing boats, they are mostly outdoors. As are canoes.

[HanoiVillan]

9 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

What a interestingcread thanks for sharing that

No worries!

9 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

Then why are we still in a semi lock down and being encouraged to stay in doors?

It's a good question, and I think there are a lot of answers which are all 'right' to some extent. Three that immediately occur are: 1] The government have followed public opinion as much or more than they have lead it (you might remember that the PL were postponing matches before lockdown was officially announced), and public opinion has remained stubbornly against the use of public outdoor spaces even as the evidence has changed (I think public opinion has been aided in this by some very misleading uses of distance-shortening lenses in the media); 2] Massive crowds at outdoor spaces do cause other problems, besides direct transmission of the virus (traffic, parking etc) which may be worsened by the lack of shops and facilities opne; 3] Keeping things closed may have had a useful signalling function to the public ('take the virus seriously').

[Davkaus]

You guys are full of shit, I've never seen a ship indoors.

I once saw a canalboat in a pub though, I'd give that a miss.

[HanoiVillan]

3 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

You guys are full of shit, I've never seen a ship indoors.

I once saw a canalboat in a pub though, I'd give that a miss.

Spoken like a man who has never seen 'Speed 2: Cruise Control'! Correct this gap in your cinematic knowledge at once:

 

[blandy]

3 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

I once saw a canalboat in a pub though,

Barging in front of you at the bar, no doubt.

[bannedfromHandV]

Anyone else feeling like we’re on the precipice of shit really kicking off?

 

It feels like the UK is a powder-keg right now, just needs something substantial enough to light the fuse.

[StefanAVFC]

 

[Davkaus]

1 hour ago, StefanAVFC said:

 

We have one in Nottingham every year, wouldn't put it past those Derby bastards to rip it off.

Well, we call it a beach, it's a Christmas market but with a sandpit instead of an ice rink.

Edited June 26, 2020 by Davkaus

[Xela]

2 hours ago, bannedfromHandV said:

Anyone else feeling like we’re on the precipice of shit really kicking off?

 

It feels like the UK is a powder-keg right now, just needs something substantial enough to light the fuse.

Free season now to fight police, have illegal raves, celebrate the red scum winning the league in the street and shit in fast food boxes on Bournemouth beach. Chuck in mass stabbings in Reading and Glasgow and its the perfect storm! 

Rule Britannia. 

 

[Xela]

1 hour ago, StefanAVFC said:

 

Don't laugh, there's a beach in Nuneaton! 

[hogso]

8 minutes ago, Xela said:

Don't laugh, there's a beach in Nuneaton! 

More than one. Basically the Caribbean of the Midlands - there is a part of it called Bermuda after all. They're practically the same tbf, I suppose the real Bermuda is a bit warmer. 

[Lichfield Dean]

4 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

Spoken like a man who has never seen 'Speed 2: Cruise Control'! Correct this gap in your cinematic knowledge at once:

 

Speed 3 was the best of the trilogy

[Stevo985]

7 hours ago, bannedfromHandV said:

I think the second wave is a bunch of bullshit intended to keep us in a perpetual state of fear and obedience. A bit like when the bible said god or jesus or whichever one it was would return.........

"Ships are mainly outdoors" is the funniest thing I've read on here since "Delfouneso will be better than Drogba"

[It's Your Round]

1380 new cases today and 184 deaths. The virus is still very much out there and while we haven’t had a massive increase yet, it’s still highly possible as we move towards autumn. 
 

We locked down with less cases and deaths per day. 

[Xann]

3 hours ago, Xela said:

Free season now to fight police, have illegal raves, celebrate the red scum winning the league in the street and shit in fast food boxes on Bournemouth beach. Chuck in mass stabbings in Reading and Glasgow and its the perfect storm! 

Rule Britannia.

Brexit next.

Bye Bye Britannia.

[bannedfromHandV]

2 minutes ago, Xann said:

Brexit next.

Bye Bye Britannia.

Christ I’d forgotten all about that until I read that, shows what a shitshow 2020’s been 

[KentVillan]

On 25/06/2020 at 18:53, blandy said:

It doesn't. it's about a sixth. But I'll be interested to see your graph. I'd wager it will be the same shape and timing in the middle. The very left hand end will be different, mind, though the numbers are so small it won't show up particularly clearly.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-death-data-in-england-update-21st-may/

Quote

By region:

Bit hard to interpret these. Peak death dates are roughly the same, which supports your argument, but if you look at the overall shape of the distributions, you can see pronounced differences between London and NE / Yorkshire (i.e. the epidemic is staggered across the country). Everywhere has a bell-shaped curve - there's no sudden discontinuity (except perhaps in London from 15-17 April) that you would expect if measures introduced on a specific date were impacting significantly on the situation.

But returning to our debate about whether lockdown was the key factor in slowing the disease, I don't know how anyone is confidently asserting this based on time series data. I think there are a couple of really important points:

• It isn't the peak that is the inflection point of the distribution. You can see the growth rate calming much earlier than the peak (hence the bell shape). So given the delay between cases and deaths, that means the slow down can't be entirely attributed to lockdown. I suppose Ferguson would argue this was due to the staggered introduction of different measures.
• But none of that explains Sweden having much the same bell-shaped epidemic curve as us, which implies this is a natural shape to a Covid-19 epidemic.

I'm not arguing, as the original article I shared said, that lockdown has no effect at all on transmission. I think it's more a question of us crediting lockdown with a more significant effect than it really had, because we happened to time it just as the epidemic was reaching its peak - and when that is weighed against the increasingly obvious negative effects of lockdown, I think it's pretty hard to justify prolonging it.

Also, looking at the deaths in the south west and south east - rural, sparsely populated areas clearly have an easier time of things. They had the same policy failings as London and the Midlands (in terms of lockdown timing) but their deaths per million are much lower.

To me that suggests this is much more a failure of long-term healthcare resourcing combined with local vulnerabilities, than a failure of crisis response.

I think pinning everything on the timing of lockdown will let the govt off the hook in the long run, because eventually most of the population will have turned against lockdown. The real crime is 10 years of austerity. And now it's the victims of austerity who are being hardest hit by lockdown, and perversely, it's Labour and the unions who are hammering home the case for extending lockdown!? I just don't get it.

[sne]

Just under 200.000 new confirmed cases yesterday world wide, a new record. Just under half of those is in the US and Brazil with almost 50.000 each. Also record numbers.

2 countries with presidents who treated this in just about as bad a way as possible.

There is talk about banning US citizens from entering Europe now.

Meanwhile Trump has signed a presidential order about protecting statues. Priorities...

 

[sne]

Quote

More young people infected with Covid-19 as cases surge globally

Greater social contact among under-40s suggested as cause of increase, but others say it is a sign of better testing

The age profile of new infections in the coronavirus pandemic appears to be younger following resurgences in countries such as the United States, Israel and Portugal linked to greater social contact among under 40s following the loosening of restrictions.

The trend has been most marked in the US and noted by scientists at the World Health Organization, who have also seen infections of younger people in the developing world contributing to the shifting demographics.

Data from the US in recent days, in particular from Florida, Texas and Arizona, has shown a sharp increase in cases among the under-40 age group in comparison with early phases of the pandemic blamed by experts on so called “second wave behaviour” as younger age groups – who see themselves as less likely to contract a severe case of the disease – have let down their guard.

The apparent changes in the age profile of those contracting the disease has led to concerns that more relaxed attitudes among younger age groups towards physical distancing may be a key factor in driving second peaks through the kind of parties and beach visits recently seen in the UK and elsewhere.

That fear was echoed by Benjamin Wakefield, a research associate at Chatham House’s global health programme. “There is a danger that positive steps may encourage a shift in public attitudes toward the pandemic, such as the threat being taken less seriously or thinking the pandemic is over,” he said. “This attitude is evident already from those flouting social distancing measures at beaches, parks, and even illegal raves.”

While some of the change can be explained by better and more extensive testing picking up more mild cases, other experts suggest that while older age groups have remained more cautious about shielding that has not been reflected in the behaviour of younger people.

According to recent figures in the US, cases have been climbing quickly among young adults in states where bars, stores and restaurants have reopened.

A case in point has been Florida, where those in 15-to-34 age group now make up 31% of all new cases, a rise of 6% since the early weeks of June. That has also seen median age for new Covid-19 patients in Florida fall from 55 years in March to under 35 in June.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/26/more-young-people-infected-with-covid-19-as-cases-surge-globally

[LondonLax]

It’s not such a bad thing if a lot of young people get the virus. The tricky part is making sure they don’t pass it on to vulnerable groups.