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Generic Virus Thread


villakram

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We got a kids play are at my local park that is closed off. Today it a lot of kids in there! Parents with them too. Lockdowns coming to an end. 
 

Also I was chatting to a copper I know the other day and I asked him if he has given out any fines. He said no chance, way too much paperwork!  As long as groups are not closed to each other they don’t care. 

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1 hour ago, ml1dch said:

Looks like it was a nice day to take a trip to Durdle Door.

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It looks like that picture was taken as people were told to leave the beach so air ambulance could land.

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2 hours ago, villakram said:

Not true. The death trends are well established by now and have US death toll at peaking at ~0.04% of the population. It is currently at ~0.03% and increasing slowly. Multiplying by 3 is the same sort of simplistic logic that had "us" thinking there'd be millions of deaths at one point.

The first US covid-19 death is now set at Feb 6th, so that's 100k in approx. 5 months. The first infections have been traced to sometime mid-ish Jan from China. This may well change when all of data is analyzed over the next few years.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/04/22/death-coronavirus-first-california/

"“The fact that there were deaths related to covid back in early February is very significant, because it means the virus was around for a lot longer than was initially realized,” Jeff Smith, a physician and the county executive in Santa Clara, told The Washington Post. “It’s been around for a while, and it’s probably been spreading in the community for quite some time.”"

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6922e1.htm?s_cid=mm6922e1_w

"From January 21 through February 23, 2020, public health agencies detected 14 U.S. cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), all related to travel from China (1,2)."

 

It’s still the wrong data to get to the conclusion you’re coming to. 
 

It’s an extremely simplistic method of working out a “probability of death” and used to come to a conclusion that isn’t based on that data. 

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12 minutes ago, Genie said:

TBH they may aswell open the pubs, people are going to mix and drink. At least it gets that industry going again.

The beach or a park is not the same as the pub in terms of risk at all

But as soon as they let Cummings off, that was it, that was the signal to open the floodgates

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1 minute ago, bickster said:

The beach or a park is not the same as the pub in terms of risk at all

I agree, but people don’t seem to be that bothered about risk. Leave them to it

 

(no I’m not being entirely serious)

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So much for baby steps and following the science, changing one variable at a time to closely monitor the R.

Schools reopening, bigger mixed gatherings, being able to go over to people's gardens for barbecues, more outdoor retail showed, and now the most vulnerable people who have been shielding can go out. All of this, tomorrow.

If the infection rate spikes, what caused it? I mean specifically which factor, not just government incompetence.

It's hard to believe this is all rapidly changing over the course of the week for any reason other than changing the focus of media coverage. They'd rather risk lives than have Cummings remain in the spotlight.

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13 hours ago, villakram said:

Not true. The death trends are well established by now and have US death toll at peaking at ~0.04% of the population. It is currently at ~0.03% and increasing slowly. Multiplying by 3 is the same sort of simplistic logic that had "us" thinking there'd be millions of deaths at one point.

The first US covid-19 death is now set at Feb 6th, so that's 100k in approx. 5 months. The first infections have been traced to sometime mid-ish Jan from China. This may well change when all of data is analyzed over the next few years

"“The fact that there were deaths related to covid back in early February ..

"From January 21 through February 23, 2020, public health agencies detected 14 U.S. cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), all related to travel from China (1,2)."

 

Feb 6th was slightly under 4 months ago, or a third of a year. All the deaths have occurred in the last 4 months, right?  So that 0.03% of the population has died of virus in the last 4 months. You have to either extrapolate or have a full years data set. Taking a 4 month period’s deaths and then making an argument of a death rate per year around only the deaths so far is twisting the stats deliberately to make it look less lethal.

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11 hours ago, Morley_crosses_to_Withe said:

Meanwhile today, over on Clapham Common.

 

Sorry but I don't believe that is Clapham Common. There's no sign of a sleazy politician anywhere in that pic. 

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I played golf at my local course yesterday, with my Dad. The bar inside the clubhouse was closed but there was a guy with a van in the car park who had set up a mobile bar and several guys were gathered together there drinking. 

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Good times!

Today Sunday, for the sixth consecutive day, Sweden has the highest death toll in the world in covid-19. The reported Swedish covid-19 death toll is now 5.7 per million inhabitants, on average over the past seven days. The seven-day average is published by the University of Oxford and the non-profit organization Global Change on the site Our World in Data .

Registered dead per million inv 31/5  
Sweden 5.7
Brazil 4.6
Peru 4.3
UK 3.6
USA 2.9
Mexico 2.9
Canada 2.7
Belgium 2.7
Sao Tome and Principe 2.6
chile 2.4

Footnote: The figure shows the seven-day average. Due to limited testing and difficulty in determining the cause of death, the confirmed number of deaths need not be the same as the number of actual covid-19 deaths.

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12 minutes ago, Genie said:

I understand why they are doing it, but blimey...

 

Yeah I get the anger but this will lead to thousands upon thousands of people being exposed. A lot of them without the finances to afford treatment.

Tin foil hat on I'd almost say that this is something the powers that be are driving at. A culling of the poor and helpless who would have voted Dem (if they bothered voting)

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Just now, Vive_La_Villa said:

The large crowds and  protests in London in solidarity with America demonstrators amazes me.

Have these people forgot there’s a currently a pandemic?

ridiculous, someone popped to my door and says its like sardines on Morecambe bay today. 

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