Generic Virus Thread

[It's Your Round]

26 minutes ago, snowychap said:

link

A gang of monkeys attacked a laboratory assistant and escaped with a batch of coronavirus blood test samples, it has been reported.

The bizarre incident saw the troop of primates launch their assault near Meerut Medical College in Delhi, India.

According to local media, the animals then snatched COVID-19 blood test samples that had been taken from three patients and fled.

Ah monkey news! I’ve missed that. 

 

Edited May 29, 2020 by It's Your Round

[villakram]

32 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

You’re also making the mistake that everyone seems to overlook when making this argument that the world has been on lockdown to get to this point. That percentage would be far far higher if everything had just carried on as normal. 
 

If car accidents and falling pianos were highly infectious and increased exponentially when life carried on as normal there would be a point here. 
 

As it is it’s just a laughably bad use of statistics

You are making the mistake of interpreting my comment as representing my understanding of things.

All cause mortality is a valid and well understood technical term. 

Lots of talking and gnashing of teeth about exponential growth, but that phase ended weeks ago. It could come back, but there's no evidence for that anywhere, with medical and societal systems at high alert and rapidly clamping down on the first sign of new infections, e.g., S. Korea in recent days. We are also unlikely to dump all our refuge on the old folks homes again, immediately cutting death rates by half in most countries (we're at something crazy like 80% here in the Detroit area!). We all worry about things, but this here is a classic case of where we as a species are not good at evaluating risk.

It's not "laughably bad use", it's quite clear in what it says.  How you or others interpret it is a completely different thing.

As we move beyond the immediate crisis phase, this will become the appropriate way to evaluate the ongoing effects (no vaccine is imminent). Just like we do with measles, the annual flu, HIV and every other common illness.

[Stevo985]

4 minutes ago, villakram said:

You are making the mistake of interpreting my comment as representing my understanding of things.

All cause mortality is a valid and well understood technical term. 

Lots of talking and gnashing of teeth about exponential growth, but that phase ended weeks ago. It could come back, but there's no evidence for that anywhere, with medical and societal systems at high alert and rapidly clamping down on the first sign of new infections, e.g., S. Korea in recent days. We are also unlikely to dump all our refuge on the old folks homes again, immediately cutting death rates by half in most countries (we're at something crazy like 80% here in the Detroit area!). We all worry about things, but this here is a classic case of where we as a species are not good at evaluating risk.

It's not "laughably bad use", it's quite clear in what it says.  How you or others interpret it is a completely different thing.

As we move beyond the immediate crisis phase, this will become the appropriate way to evaluate the ongoing effects (no vaccine is imminent). Just like we do with measles, the annual flu, HIV and every other common illness.

It’s laughably bad to use the probability of death from coronavirus when the country has been under a lockdown as evidence that things should open back up. 
It’s like saying “I haven’t been attacked once since I’ve had this army of bodyguards so I don’t need them anymore”

There is an argument that things could and should open back up. A perfectly valid one based on the rest of the stuff in your post. But using those stats you posted originally as the driver for that is, in my opinion, laughable. 
 

All cause mortality is perfectly valid, but that doesn’t mean every single use of it is. 
 

xG is accepted and valid but if I was using it to help my argument that Dean Smith should wear a red suit it would be laughable. A valid statistic doesn’t validate its use. 

Edited May 29, 2020 by Stevo985

[villakram]

3 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

It’s laughably bad to use the probability of death from coronavirus when the country has been under a lockdown as evidence that things should open back up. 
It’s like saying “I haven’t been attacked once since I’ve had this army of bodyguards so I don’t need them anymore”

There is an argument that things could and should open back up. A perfectly valid one based on the rest of the stuff in your post. But using those stats you posted originally as the driver for that is, in my opinion, laughable. 
 

All cause mortality is perfectly valid, but that doesn’t mean every single use of it is. 
 

xG is accepted and valid but if I was using it to help my argument that Dean Smith should wear a red suit it would be laughable. A valid statistic doesn’t validate its use. 

The current risk is low.

The data shows that countries and states which have opened up are not seeing a massive rise in infections or deaths. Most, if not all are seeing a flat to continued decay trend.

The medical system is now prepared, as is society as a whole educated on what to do in the case of infection.

Opening back up is therefore laughable, ok. We are each an individual.

[Stevo985]

12 minutes ago, villakram said:

The current risk is low.

The data shows that countries and states which have opened up are not seeing a massive rise in infections or deaths. Most, if not all are seeing a flat to continued decay trend.

The medical system is now prepared, as is society as a whole educated on what to do in the case of infection.

Opening back up is therefore laughable, ok. We are each an individual.

Did you read my post?

I said there was a perfectly valid argument for opening back up. I agree the risk is relatively low.

 

I don't agree that the stats you posted int he first post is evidence for any of this.

I'm not disagreeing with your conclusion, necessarily. I'm disagreeing with your workings.

 

If you said we should open up the country because the sales of ice creams are going down. I might agree with your conclusion but think how you got there was nonsense

[TheAuthority]

4 hours ago, villakram said:

Time to start getting on with life again.

Source: https://www.washingtontimes.com/multimedia/image/stop-worrying-rahn-chartjpg/

The Washington Post 

[TheAuthority]

The irony being that in January the Washington Times published articles claiming that COVID-19 was a Chinese biological weapon, quoting a former Israeli intelligence officer as it's source.

It's a racist, climate change denying, conspiracy theory pushing, drivel-rag. To quote it as a source @villakram in any other way than satire is, well, a joke.

Edited May 29, 2020 by TheAuthority
Wrong newspaper

[StefanAVFC]

Just now, TheAuthority said:

The irony being that in January the Washington Post published articles claiming that COVID-19 was a Chinese biological weapon, quoting a former Israeli intelligence officer as it's source.

It's a racist, climate change denying, conspiracy theory pushing, drivel-rag. To quote it as a source @villakram in any other way than satire is, well, a joke.

Don't you mean Washington Times?  

[TheAuthority]

1 minute ago, StefanAVFC said:

Don't you mean Washington Times?  

haha - yes - typing too fast!

[Jareth]

I think it's pretty obvious that England will see a second wave, maybe the other nations too but there is a distinct difference in how early they are trying to exit lockdown. 

[snowychap]

 

[snowychap]

 

[choffer]

Covid funerals are a horrible business. Buried my aunt today and it was just awful. Only nine of us allowed there (although we brought in a ringer as the tenth man was the vicar who is family too), all desperately fighting  the urge to hug each other and trying to keep socially distant at the very moment you want to do anything but.

Wouldn't wish that on anyone. 

[snowychap]

 

[DCJonah]

 

[sne]

The massive protests in the US must be all kinds of bad when it comes to containing the virus.

[trekka]

A 3rd scientist has come out to openly share concerns about the lockdown restrictions being relaxed too soon.  It was quite sad to see the Midlands record the highest number of deaths yesterday (the figures according to Sky News).  Whilst Portsmouth (where I live) is looking like it is getting through it (only 1 confirmed case per day during the past week according to official figures), I do fear that there will a huge increase of infections across the country in the weeks ahead.

Quote

Government scientific adviser Prof Peter Horby, an epidemiologist at the University of Oxford, says he shares concerns voiced by two fellow advisers that about the easing of lockdown measures in England.

He's told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that while the social distancing measures have been "very successful", the UK still sees around 8,000 cases a day and the R number - the number of people each infected person passes the virus on to - is "only a bit below one".

"We've got very little headroom actually and it's really important that we use that headroom very wisely and we don't lose control again," he says.

"I can understand the desires for the relaxation of the social measures, but we really can't go back to the situation where we've got the numbers of cases and deaths we've had in the past."

Click

Edited May 30, 2020 by trekka

[DCJonah]

 

 

[Villarocker]

14 minutes ago, DCJonah said:

 

 

Sweden has a high death rate there  considering its size. Wonder if that's got anything to do with going for the herd immunity approach? 

[Xann]

When's Eton going back?