snowychap Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 A thread: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannedfromHandV Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 1 minute ago, snowychap said: Or we should all just stop speaking. Works for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 All a bit sketchy at the moment (no surprise really) but seems there’s a second major Chinese outbreak in the city of Harbin, population 10 million. Videos on social media of people dropping dead in the streets and barricades going up again - like in Wuhan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 9 minutes ago, snowychap said: A thread: Interestingly the chief epidemiologist in Sweden has claimed Stockholm is now showing signs of herd immunity developing and will potentially reach herd immunity for the city in May. We can thank the Swedes for running a real world trial on dealing with the virus through herd immunity without a lockdown of the population. Quote Dr Anders Tegnell, the man responsible for drawing up the country's controversial coronavirus strategy, said infection rates in the capital are slowing because people had developed a resistance. "According to our modellers, we are starting to see so many immune people in the population in Stockholm that it is starting to have an effect on the spread of the infection," he told local media. "Our models point to some time in May." https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2020/04/19/coronavirus-stockholm-could-have-herd-immunity-by-next-month/? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 7 minutes ago, Awol said: All a bit sketchy at the moment (no surprise really) but seems there’s a second major Chinese outbreak in the city of Harbin, population 10 million. Videos on social media of people dropping dead in the streets and barricades going up again - like in Wuhan. I have had a look at the videos and apparently thousands lining up outside hospitals. I don't know what symptoms you have to have over there to attend hospital but clearly if you are able to queue up outside a hospital for hours that would render you not eligible for hospital treatment here. That isn't to say that some of them in the queue I have seen don't need hospital treatment. This isn't going to go away is it and I think it is just a case of managing the numbers so they don't overwhelm health systems until hopefully a vaccine is found. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 (edited) 12 minutes ago, LondonLax said: We can thank the Swedes for running a real world trial on dealing with the virus through herd immunity without a lockdown of the population. Can we? I think that's a big leap. Edit: Also as said in that article by the Foreign Minister and I think also said by others (in this thread and elsewhere?) remarking on Sweden: Quote "No lock-down and we rely very much on people taking responsibility themselves." That does not constitute a 'real world trial...without a lockdown' unless one is also assuming that the same levels of people taking responsibility themselves (a critical component of this 'trial') would be seen elsewhere. Edited April 20, 2020 by snowychap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted April 20, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted April 20, 2020 Yeah I think I'm glad we skipped that experiment 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 The Telegraph is quoting a minister source who claims the lockdown was not bought in based on scientific evidence but because of pressure from the public and the media and so it won’t be ended until public wants it ended. Quote A third cabinet source said: “There’s no exit plan at the moment because they don’t want to do anything without the boss’s say so. “Not a huge amount is going on in these cabinet meetings.” The source added: “They are waiting for the public to change their minds. “We didn’t want to go down this route in the first place – public and media pressure pushed the lockdown, we went with the science. “The lockdown will only start coming loose when the public wants it to – not ministers.” https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/17/cabinet-ministers-admit-no-lockdown-exit-plan-wait-boris-johnsons/amp/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 Just now, Stevo985 said: Yeah I think I'm glad we skipped that experiment The point Sweden makes is that those countries are just delaying the inevitable. The’ll catch up when they let their people out again. The key measure Sweden is watching for is whether the hospital system can cope and it’s currently operating with about 20% spare capacity so they don’t believe they need harsher restrictions to help it cope. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted April 20, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted April 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, LondonLax said: The Telegraph is quoting a minister source who claims the lockdown was not bought in based on scientific evidence but because of pressure from the public and the media and so it won’t be ended until public wants it ended. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/17/cabinet-ministers-admit-no-lockdown-exit-plan-wait-boris-johnsons/amp/ This is terrifying I mean if this is true then I'm glad they went with the lockdown in the end. But the suggestion that they're doign things based on what the public wants is scary. The public are idiots! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted April 20, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted April 20, 2020 1 minute ago, LondonLax said: The point Sweden makes is that those countries are just delaying the inevitable. The’ll catch up when they let their people out again. The key measure Sweden is watching for is whether the hospital system can cope and it’s currently operating with about 20% spare capacity so they don’t believe they need harsher restrictions to help it cope. It's an interesting argument. But by all accounts a similar approach wouldn't have worked here because hospitals would have been overwhelmed and more deaths caused because of it. The argument has merit (well at least to my layman mind it does) until extra deaths are caused due to hospital capacity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, Stevo985 said: It's an interesting argument. But by all accounts a similar approach wouldn't have worked here because hospitals would have been overwhelmed and more deaths caused because of it. The argument has merit (well at least to my layman mind it does) until extra deaths are caused due to hospital capacity. Yes, I’d certainly agree with that. If your country has a hospital system that requires significant restrictions on the population in order for the hospitals to cope with the spread then that is a necessary response. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Troglodyte Posted April 20, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted April 20, 2020 4 hours ago, sharkyvilla said: I guess they are still doing work towards their final assessed grade even if they don't end up taking exams. Students in Year 11 aren't supposed to be doing any further work now, as the source of anything they produce which might contribute to their GCSE grade could be called into question. Also there's no "if" in terms of exams - they're definitely cancelled. However, now I've read a bit further, it seems that this is targeting Year 10, who will be due to sit their exams next year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 17 minutes ago, snowychap said: Can we? I think that's a big leap. Edit: Also as said in that article by the Foreign Minister and I think also said by others (in this thread and elsewhere?) remarking on Sweden: That does not constitute a 'real world trial...without a lockdown' unless one is also assuming that the same levels of people taking responsibility themselves (a critical component of this 'trial') would be seen elsewhere. Yes that is true, it looks like we are about to get an alternate trial in some parts of the US where the population refuses to obey social distancing guidelines 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 The US is mental. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinker Posted April 20, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted April 20, 2020 Been watching some videos from a Dr John Campbell, he's analysing pockets of people who have been tested are very enlightening. 60% of people who were tested on a ship (600 tests) were asymptomatic. (they were younger people from the Theo Roosevelt). There was one death, aged 41. Showing a death rate of 0.16% amongst younger healthier test sample. Watch here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted April 20, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted April 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said: The US is mental. Mental... and selfish. One thing this whole pandemic has hammered home is how inherently selfish people are. And the USA is one of the prime examples of that. "Yeah but look how this is affecting me. And **** everyone else" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 (edited) Yeah I don't think there is a one right way to handle it that will work regardless of where and of circumstances. Some of the steps Sweden has taken, or not taken may turn out to be the right ones but they would likely not have worked in many other places. And the lock down that has worked in some places have not been as successful in others. Like Belgium for example. The biggest failure in Sweden was a lack of safety gear combined with underestimating the risks meaning it could spread unchecked in care homes and among the elderly, especially in Stockholm meaning we now have among the highest deaths per 1 mil citizens in the world. It' still only a guessing game how it will play out and Tegnell consistently used the most optimistic scenario as his prediction on how things will play out. He has then repeatedly moved the goalposts without admitting to being wrong. The herd immunity stuff is based on a calculation by a math professor and is best case scenario and we have no idea since we don't do any testing yet. It's a guesstimation at best. Sweden has tested less than 75.000 people so far with a population of just over 10 million (Norway has tested almost twice as many). To say that we might have herd immunity in Stockholm in May is just based on nothing but hope. Also still to be proven that herd immunity works on Covid-19 Edited April 20, 2020 by sne 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 6 minutes ago, Stevo985 said: One thing this whole pandemic has hammered home is how inherently selfish people are. And the USA is one of the prime examples of that. "Yeah but look how this is affecting me. And **** everyone else" My favourite was the video with a baby well into his seventh decade literally blubbing because he couldn't go to the garden centre to buy lawn fertiliser 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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