Generic Virus Thread

[foreveryoung]

So an updatd to Mrs feeling unwell and being sent home from work NHS. They send someone out with a testing kit, arrived yesterday, had it collected like 15 minutes later.  I think it went to the QE in Birmingham,  had results back today already and Mrs is..............Positive. Not sure if she is about over it as she has had mild symptoms for about 7 days but no shock to us. Obviously knows she caught it from work probably through lack of PPE. But now I felt a little rough too over the past week too, feel ok now, but have I had it? No way of knowing as they are not really checking general public are they, which is why figures for contracting it are way out.

[Morley_crosses_to_Withe]

2 hours ago, snowychap said:

I believe the researcher is a professor of risk management and there have been numerous responses to the articles produced on the back of the research (such as the one above from Portes) or to the paper itself, such as the twitter thread beginning with the tweet below:

There’s another superb takedown of that research under the original Tweet. Apologies for hijacking your post, but this is also really worth people’s attention. 
 

 

[Stevo985]

2 hours ago, jackbauer24 said:

We can all go to nth degree. Why do we remain open during flu season? According to Public Health England 17,00 people die annually from Flu. Are these lives not important? There is always a calculation as to what warrants intervention and what doesn't. Clearly if we were talking about saving 20,000+ healthy people years on their life it is a different calculation to saving 20,000 people a few extra months. It's naïve to suggest that isn't how the world works. It also works on a microlevel when you consider quality of life.

And before anyone suggests I am likening flu to covid, that is not the case. Clearly it is far more contagious and far more deadly with a lot more unknown. What I'm saying is there has to be calculations.

What is your calculation? You're happpy with 17000 dying from flu as you don't shout for lockdown over winter. So what's the number you find acceptable?  

It. Is. Not. 20,000

20,000 is the number that have died when we’ve put these preventative measures in place. 
 

It would be hundreds of thousands if we didn’t. 
 

Your posts rather lose any credit they have when you’re making this fundamental mistake

[Stevo985]

1 hour ago, Jareth said:

Oh 

Impossible for UK to meet Covid-19 testing targets, scientists say

Government’s 100,000-a-day pledge was only designed to be a headline grabber, claim sceptics

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/19/impossible-for-uk-to-meet-covid-19-testing-targets-say-scientists

I can’t wait for them to come up with some nonsense as to how they never said 100,000 was the target. 
 

“oh that was the target for capacity. We COULD do 100,000 tests. But we just don’t want to. Because China. Worldwide shortage. Oh look Boris is back isnt he funny. Scruffy hair and that. 
 

Right next question is from *checks notes* Laura at the BBC...”

[foreveryoung]

Just called NHS helpline to get tested cause Mrs is positive. Said they are only testing front line staff at the moment, unless I go to hospital with severe symptoms there is no way of being tested.

So no they are not going to meet figures for testing anytime soon.

[LakotaDakota]

39 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

So an updatd to Mrs feeling unwell and being sent home from work NHS. They send someone out with a testing kit, arrived yesterday, had it collected like 15 minutes later.  I think it went to the QE in Birmingham,  had results back today already and Mrs is..............Positive. Not sure if she is about over it as she has had mild symptoms for about 7 days but no shock to us. Obviously knows she caught it from work probably through lack of PPE. But now I felt a little rough too over the past week too, feel ok now, but have I had it? No way of knowing as they are not really checking general public are they, which is why figures for contracting it are way out.

Sorry to hear this & hope she just ends up with the crappy cold bit before being fine in a week or two, same goes for you. Kinda shows how pointless any of the numbers are though. If you have been living in the same house/in the same bed etc then there is a very high chance that you have it/have had it and will have given it to anyone you have come into contact with over the past week or so but you will not be tested, nor will anyone else so will not be counted. This could be easily be 20,000 dying with symptoms out of 10 million+ cases but nobody has got a clue. Given that they make up such a small section of society The sheer amount of celebs/athletes/piliticians etc that have apparently tested positive would indicate that this is incredibly widespread. there is no possible way that 120,000 cases is even anywhere near correct. Could easily be that many people getting it and mostly being fine every single day

Edited April 19, 2020 by LakotaDakota

[Swerbs]

But wait, isn't this.. broadband... communism?! 

[Jareth]

Have him Stevo!

Edited April 19, 2020 by Jareth

[Wainy316]

3 hours ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

I wonder if the history books will look back at the Cheltenham Horse Racing Festival 2020 as the greatest ever sporting disaster? 

No chance, I had £20 on Al Boum Photo

[blandy]

52 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

20,000 is the number that have died when we’ve put these preventative measures in place

No it isn’t. Most of those who have died with it caught it before the lock down was imposed. Far fewer with social distancing as that was brought in earlier. But it’s import to understand the time lag from getting infected, to exhibiting symptoms, to serious trouble to treatment to death. Obviously it differs case by case, but only in the last few days will those days dead have caught it during lock down. 

[HanoiVillan]

[terrytini]

An economic shutdown has huge consequences. A social shutdown has huge consequences.

Pretty sure we would all agree with that.

But had we just experienced a devastating nuclear holocaust and accompanying radioactive fallout and the swamping of our Health Service would a return to work/ canoeing/the pub be being talked about after a couple of weeks ?

Well I’m sure we could find someone who would, but my guess is 99.9% wouldn’t....and would follow any advice, regardless of cost, if it meant better prospects of recovery.

In which case, the debate over when to “ end lockdown” is really just a Function of how serious people think this is. Where on the scale between nuclear holocaust (10) and say, measles (1). The closer to 1, the more likely you are to favour an end to restrictions, and frame arguments accordingly. The closer to 10, the opposite.

Nothing more, nothing less, however it is wrapped up.

Personally I’m with the overwhelming number of informed people who consider it to be incredibly serious. The more I study the evidence, the more convinced I am.

[terrytini]

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/how-does-coronavirus-kill-clinicians-trace-ferocious-rampage-through-body-brain-toes

How does coronavirus kill? Clinicians trace a ferocious rampage through the body, from brain to toes

A very detailed study of how the disease works, including the effect it is having on kidney function and the need for dialysis.

[KHV]

5 hours ago, bannedfromHandV said:

Riverside Tavern by any chance?

Was there live music, good chance if so.

It was in the day so no live music, I only remember that there was a pool table and some strange folk in there 

[terrytini]

1 hour ago, Swerbs said:

But wait, isn't this.. broadband... communism?! 

No, like all of these things, sheltering the homeless,  investment in Hospitals, minimum income guarantees etc, it is only Communism if it’s planned and thought through in advance.

Where it’s brought in as a panic measure it’s Capitalism

[PaulC]

we have all heard how it was initially spread and how it was transmitted to humans. If they stopped humans from doing what they did with live animals, wet markets and stuff in China then we stop the source and eventually the virus would go away. Trump blaming the WHO was bad but  blaming China no. They are to blame for this global pandemic, 

[sidcow]

6 hours ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

I wonder if the history books will look back at the Cheltenham Horse Racing Festival 2020 as the greatest ever sporting disaster? 

I think it would have good competition from the Aston Villa 2015-2016 Premier League campaign. 

Edited April 19, 2020 by sidcow

[Stevo985]

1 hour ago, blandy said:

No it isn’t. Most of those who have died with it caught it before the lock down was imposed. Far fewer with social distancing as that was brought in earlier. But it’s import to understand the time lag from getting infected, to exhibiting symptoms, to serious trouble to treatment to death. Obviously it differs case by case, but only in the last few days will those days dead have caught it during lock down. 

I understand the time lag.
 

That is our death toll having brought in preventative measures. It would be much higher and would continue to grow had we not brought those measures in

[chrisp65]

17 minutes ago, PaulC said:

we have all heard how it was initially spread and how it was transmitted to humans. If they stopped humans from doing what they did with live animals, wet markets and stuff in China then we stop the source and eventually the virus would go away. Trump blaming the WHO was bad but  blaming China no. They are to blame for this global pandemic, 

Do we have any science that identifies patient zero and how they got it?

Genuine question. I’ve seen it repeated as fact, I’ve not seen evidence.

[StefanAVFC]