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Generic Virus Thread


villakram

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4 minutes ago, Kingman said:

Hows everyone keeping busy?..

Missus ask earlier... Can we play a game, shall we play eye spy?.. I replied " Nah let's play hide and seek" You hide and I will seek!.. That was 3 o'clock!.. She's **** good I tell you!.. 🤣😂

Today I tidied the garage and jet washed the patio 😭

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8 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Remember when Jeremy Vine decided to boost a model with an extremely low death count in the UK, just the day before yesterday?

We hit 260 deaths today, more than a week before that model expected 🙄🙄🙄🙄

On that model, Portes linked to the following thread earlier today:

 

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The situation in Poland is messy. Mostly because the government want to push ahead with elections in May, so their measures aren't so strong. We're 'locked down' but it isn't strong.

This was Lodz (where I used to live) today.

Madness. Mostly the older/poorer populations use these markets.

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4 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

The situation in Poland is messy. Mostly because the government want to push ahead with elections in May, so their measures aren't so strong. We're 'locked down' but it isn't strong.

This was Lodz (where I used to live) today.

Where are Poland in terms of numbers in comparison to UK mate? It is only 8 days ago that people over here were piling into pubs for one last piss up before lock down and 6 days ago that it felt like a bank holiday weekend with people out and about. 

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Was kind of the same here today

The weather is good (17 and sunny) the threat is still there but the doom is discipating, I don't think people are as scared anymore, add in to that the number of deaths appears controlled compared to elsewhere 

A week of really good weather would see things almost normal 

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Quote

Covid-19 patients in UK intensive care have 50% survival rate

Findings of new report raise concerns about how effective new facilities will be

 

The mortality rate for patients put in intensive care after being infected with Covid-19 is running at close to 50%, a report has revealed.

Data from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC) showed that of 165 patients treated in critical care in England, Wales and Northern Ireland since the end of February, 79 died, while 86 survived and were discharged. The figures were taken from an audit of 775 people who have been or are in critical care with the disease, across 285 intensive care units. The remaining 610 patients continue to receive intensive care.

The high death rate raises questions about how effective critical care will be in saving the lives of people struck down by the disease. As a top priority, the NHS is opening field hospitals in London, Birmingham and Manchester, which will incorporate some of the biggest critical care units ever seen in Britain.

“The truth is that quite a lot of these individuals [in critical care] are going to die anyway and there is a fear that we are just ventilating them for the sake of it, for the sake of doing something for them, even though it won’t be effective. That’s a worry,” one doctor said.

The report also found that though the majority of those who have died from coronavirus across the UK were over 70, nine of the 79 who died in intensive care were aged between 16 and 49, as were 28 of the 86 who survived.

The audit suggested that men are at much higher risk from the virus – seven in ten of all ICU patients were male, while 30% of men in critical care were under 60, compared to just 15% of women. Excess weight also appears to be a significant risk factor; over 70% of patients were overweight, obese or clinically obese on the body mass index scale.

Covid-19 patients in UK intensive care have 50% survival rate

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28 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Remember when Jeremy Vine decided to boost a model with an extremely low death count in the UK, just the day before yesterday?

We hit 260 deaths today, more than a week before that model expected 🙄🙄🙄🙄

Doing a blunt force calculation of a compounding 30% increase in new infections / deaths per day puts the NHS ICU capacity underwater by next weekend. Beyond that date the numbers get ridiculous. 

Thing is those exponential increases haven’t appeared yet in Italy or Spain, (although their populations seem to have taken social distancing much more seriously) so it gives some hope that the worst case won’t unfold here over the next few weeks.

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I’m in the “spent a lot less than usual” camp during this lockdown. Probably thick end of a grand saved with kids off school, no work travelling, no eating out, no football, less shopping. A good time to top up the coffers as I suspect next week me and my colleagues will be asked to take a hair cut to protect the business

Edited by Genie
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16 minutes ago, Awol said:

Doing a blunt force calculation of a compounding 30% increase in new infections / deaths per day puts the NHS ICU capacity underwater by next weekend. Beyond that date the numbers get ridiculous. 

Thing is those exponential increases haven’t appeared yet in Italy or Spain, (although their populations seem to have taken social distancing much more seriously) so it gives some hope that the worst case won’t unfold here over the next few weeks.

Yeah, I saw Ferguson claiming that with the new field hospitals as well, we *might* have a chance to avoid breaking ICU capacity, and exponential increases won't last forever. I think it's actually very difficult to predict the future infection rates, but the numbers from that survey Vine quoted were always ridiculously low, and the guy who compiled them was a statistician who is expert in planetary movements, which is hardly particularly relevant expertise.

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4 minutes ago, maqroll said:

The fact that this virus is killing healthy young people is **** terrifying. 

It's very very few from what I've seen. There's also reason to speculate these may have had underlying issues that wasn't known. 

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10 minutes ago, KenjiOgiwara said:

It's very very few from what I've seen. There's also reason to speculate these may have had underlying issues that wasn't known. 

This is very important.

Most Official reports say no KNOWN underlying health issues. Makes a big difference. 

Remember Asa Hartford ? His transfer from the Baggies to Leeds was cancelled when his medical revealed a Hole in the Heart. He’d had plenty medical before which had shown nothing.

The numbers re people under 30 are tiny, and there’s no certainty whether they had health issues, nor to what extent they were exposed.

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