Generic Virus Thread

[ml1dch]

1 minute ago, Genie said:

I bet they will, mortgage rates will tumble over the next 3 months 

They really won't. 

[Genie]

Just now, snowychap said:

Maybe, though I'm sure I also read that some companies (was it Halifax?) have withdrawn the vast majority of their mortgages such that they're offering max 60% LTV.

I saw on HotUKDeals last week a couple of deals below 1% for the first time. I think there will be a flood of them when everyone is back to work.

[Genie]

2 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

They really won't. 

They have already started. 
What makes you think that the slashing of the Bank of England base rate won’t create lower mortgage deals?

[snowychap]

5 minutes ago, Genie said:

I think there will be a flood of them when everyone is back to work.

Maybe, maybe not - but when will 'everyone be back to work'?

Firstly, when will the restictions end? No one knows, it could be longer than those three months; secondly, it's very unlikely that 'everyone' will be back to work at the end of those restrictions - indeed, it's quite likely that far from everyone will be back to work and the economic situation will look very barren when the restrictions are lifted.

Edit: Also, those two you linked are 75% and 60% LTV.

Edited March 27, 2020 by snowychap

[Genie]

3 minutes ago, snowychap said:

Maybe, maybe not - but when will 'everyone be back to work'?

Firstly, when will the restictions end? No one knows, it could be longer than those three months; secondly, it's very unlikely that 'everyone' will be back to work at the end of those restrictions - indeed, it's quite likely that far from everyone will be back to work and the economic situation will look very barren when the restrictions are lifted.

There’s a bunch already that have dropped their rates.

Post office 5 year fix buy to let 1.96%
HSBC 0.74% 2 year tracker

Coventry Building Society 1.15% 2 year fix

These lenders have gone early, there will be more coming i’m certain of it. If the economic situation is looking barren then even more chance the lenders will try and stimulate the market with deals.

The initial point being, rates won’t be going up in the next 3 months, and the extensions the lenders are giving are only because they will have people currently signed up to unfavourable terms compared to what is coming (and in many cases has already started filtering through).

If the BoE had just added 0.65% onto the rate then I doubt very much whether the lenders would be feeling so “charitable” about honouring existing offers for another 3 months.

[Jareth]

Best comment on things so far I've heard

 

[snowychap]

 

8 minutes ago, Genie said:

There’s a bunch already that have dropped their rates.

There might well be but I don't think you can just assume from that it will continue on that trajectory ad infinitum.

Also, as per my edited point above - what are the LTVs on those mortgages?

Could it be the case that people remortgaging will have a slightly easier time of it but people seeking a new mortgage will be asked to stump up 25% or 40% of a new mortgage (thus making it even more difficult for first-time buyers)?

4 minutes ago, Genie said:

If the economic situation is looking barren then even more chance the lenders will try and stimulate the market with deals.

Again, that could be the case, on the other hand if things are looking barren, it's quite possible that they won't take that risk. There is a point at which 'stimulus' fails to work and the go to tricks/levers don't have the same punch as they would in other situations. Yes, central banks keep saying that they haven't run out of various measures but there is a time when these measures lose their effectiveness.

I think we are very much in danger of assuming that any blow to the economy (and this is going to be a very sharp shock - how short it is we don't know) can just be dealt with by central banks doing a little bit more of what they have for the last 12 years rather than perhaps asking whether we were almost to the limit of these policies already and if this kind of shock might expose just how fragile western economies actually are (it might not be the case - the last deacde may well have become 'the new normal' for mature western economies).

16 minutes ago, Genie said:

If the BoE had just added 0.65% onto the rate then I doubt very much whether the lenders would be feeling so “charitable” about honouring existing offers for another 3 months.

If the base rate had just been put up by 0.65% then we wouldn't be in an economic situation where people were wanting/needing to reconsider or postpone the mortgage decisions that they've already undertaken so there wouldn't be any need for lenders to be 'charitable' (I'm not sure anyone is seriously suggesting the move is purely on the basis of being 'charitable'').

[sne]

More than 17.200 new cases yesterday in the US and all Trump can talk about is how much people are dying.... to get back to work.

If ever there was a time for thoughts and prayers.

[Mic09]

13 minutes ago, Jareth said:

Best comment on things so far I've heard

 

I'm very much mixed on this.

Yes, he is correct. But hindsight is a beautiful thing.

I think that most European governments (please give me an example if i'm wrong!) have played out the situation similarly. Some have closed sooner, some later.

While I'm not saying we did well, I'm saying that it looks like other nations haven't coped much better. 

In terms of preparation, I'm not sure of what our stock of PPE was before all hell broke loose. Maybe we were assured we had solid supply chains that could increase the numbers within a matter of days.

[Genie]

8 minutes ago, snowychap said:

 

There might well be but I don't think you can just assume from that it will continue on that trajectory ad infinitum.

Also, as per my edited point above - what are the LTVs on those mortgages?

Could it be the case that people remortgaging will have a slightly easier time of it but people seeking a new mortgage will be asked to stump up 25% or 40% of a new mortgage (thus making it even more difficult for first-time buyers)?

Again, that could be the case, on the other hand if things are looking barren, it's quite possible that they won't take that risk. There is a point at which 'stimulus' fails to work and the go to tricks/levers don't have the same punch as they would in other situations. Yes, central banks keep saying that they haven't run out of various measures but there is a time when these measures lose their effectiveness.

I think we are very much in danger of assuming that any blow to the economy (and this is going to be a very sharp shock - how short it is we don't know) can just be dealt with by central banks doing a little bit more of what they have for the last 12 years rather than perhaps asking whether we were almost to the limit of these policies already and if this kind of shock might expose just how fragile western economies actually are (it might not be the case - the last deacde may well have become 'the new normal' for mature western economies).

If the base rate had just been put up by 0.65% then we wouldn't be in an economic situation where people were wanting/needing to reconsider or postpone the mortgage decisions that they've already undertaken so there wouldn't be any need for lenders to be 'charitable' (I'm not sure anyone is seriously suggesting the move is purely on the basis of being 'charitable'').

I think you’re over complicating it. When the BoE base rate goes down, the mortgage market follows that trend (as we’re seeing already). Regardless of the LTV percentage, it’ll come down relatively for all types of borrower.

Its a nice move by the lenders purely on convenience for not having to find a new deal, but it’s motivated by the fact current deals people are signed up to will most likely have a bigger profit margin for them since BoE slashed its base rate.

[markavfc40]

1 hour ago, Mic09 said:

I'm very much mixed on this.

Yes, he is correct. But hindsight is a beautiful thing.
 

And we had hindsight. We have known what is coming for over 2 months yet our government spent most of February picking a fight with the BBC and Johnson was hardly seen throughout that month.

We aren't the only country that had the benefit of hindsight but given it is said we are a couple of weeks behind Italy and Spain would it not have been better to have shut things down and tried to stop the spread as early as possible given we could see what was coming having witnessed China, Italy and Spain. We are not on anything like a complete lock down now.

There is zero excuse that even now NHS staff are still having to go around DIY stores and find their own make do PPE.

In fairness it goes deeper than us simply having the benefit of the last 2 months of hindsight. We have known for years that the NHS is being run at pretty much max capacity with no slack in the system. Known for years that we trail way behind the likes of Italy who have twice our amount of ICU beds, Germany five times our amount of ICU beds. We have started from a low base and even with the advantage of being able to see what is happening elsewhere are still nowhere near prepared.

 

Edited March 27, 2020 by markavfc40

[sne]

Meanwhile in Sweden.

Quote

She works at Karolinska hospital in the Corona crisis - under threat of layoff

During the Corona pandemic, the workload is expected to increase for hospital staff. At the same time, a notice hangs over Karolinska University Hospital. Ulrica Nordlander is one of those who in the middle of the crisis was told to look for a new job.

The hospital management at Karolinska University Hospital in the Stockholm region in November last year issued a notice that included 350 nurses and 250 doctors. An additional 550 administrative services are covered by the notification.

The proposal led to a protest storm, including the newly launched Stockholm Uprising, which in a short time received thousands of signatures from health care workers in the region. After negotiations, the notification has been adjusted down to 266 healthcare services, distributed to 109 doctors and 157 nurses. The number of administrative services still amounts to 550.

 

Karolinska University Hospital HR Director Patricia Enocson announces via the hospital's press department that the warning is still there, but that the process itself is paused:

“We focus on our structure from the perspective of what services we have at the hospital and in the current situation, no doctors or nurses will be dismissed. Formally, notifications remain, but we do not work actively with the notification process, as it is important that healthcare personnel and those involved in collaboration on the changes devote themselves fully to their assignment in care.

https://www.arbetsvarlden.se/hon-jobbar-pa-karolinska-i-coronakrisen-under-varselhot/

[ml1dch]

1 minute ago, Genie said:

They have already started. (1)
What makes you think that the slashing of the Bank of England base rate won’t create lower mortgage deals? (2)

(1) They haven't. As Snowy said, the only movement right now is caution and restriction. The whole of LBG have restricted all new lending to 60% LTV and below. I'm not at liberty to say which, but I'd expect two more announce similar measures soon. Barclays mortgage processing is based out of locked-down Mumbai, so have virtually put a 2009 style lending freeze in place.

(2) Far too many reasons to mention, but a few off the top of my head. 

a) Capacity. No lender needs more work at the moment. Their staff are struggling to deal with sorting out what is on their plate already. The last thing they want is attractive rates and a deluge of new applications to assess

b) the impact on knock-on areas of the industry. People can't get a valuation done because property surveyors are definitely not essential and nor is traipsing in and out of peoples homes. Thus, things stay blocked. 

c) margins. Before this all kicked off, rates were at a historic low. You could get a two year fix at around 1.2% or 5 years at 1.4%. There have been sub-1% fixes rates before, but gimmicky ones where the fees negate any saving made by the internet rate.  Even if they do come back, are you actually better off paying 0.99% for two years and a two grand fee compared to paying 1.19% with a £999 fee, which you've been able to do for over a year now. There isn't really capacity in the margin to reduce it by anything that will make a noticeable difference. 

Incidentally, while I've been writing this post, Virgin Money have said that they suspending all mortgage lending, apart from remortgaging up to 60%, and nothing more than 300k. This is not a market where lenders are desperate to lend money.

[Mic09]

15 minutes ago, markavfc40 said:

And we had hindsight. We have known what is coming for over 2 months yet our government spent most of February picking a fight with the BBC and Johnson was hardly seen throughout that month.

We aren't the only country that had the benefit of hindsight but given it is said we are a couple of weeks behind Italy and Spain would it not have been better to have shut things down and tried to stop the spread as early as possible given we could see what was coming having witnessed China, Italy and Spain. We are not on anything like a complete lock down now.

There is zero excuse that even now NHS staff are still having to go around DIY stores and find their own make do PPE.

In fairness it goes deeper than us simply having the benefit of the last 2 months of hindsight. We have known for years that the NHS is being run at pretty much max capacity with no slack in the system. Known for years that we trail way behind the likes of Italy who have twice our amount of ICU beds, Germany 5 times our amount of ICU beds. We have started from a low base and even with the advantage of being able to see what is happening elsewhere are still nowhere near prepared.

 

Again, all the things you mentioned lead me to think the guy in the video was correct.

HOWEVER, would anyone have supported a lock-down 2 months ago? Is any other European country better prepared to REACT to this crisis? I'm not talking about preparation - I am talking about a reaction. 

Edited March 27, 2020 by Mic09

[imavillan]

This is the same bloke who said this back in January. For me it's easy/cheap populist comments to big himself up.

Cheap political shots are not what is needed !!!!! 

55 minutes ago, Jareth said:

Best comment on things so far I've heard

 

 

37 minutes ago, Mic09 said:

I'm very much mixed on this.

Yes, he is correct. But hindsight is a beautiful thing.

I think that most European governments (please give me an example if i'm wrong!) have played out the situation similarly. Some have closed sooner, some later.

While I'm not saying we did well, I'm saying that it looks like other nations haven't coped much better. 

In terms of preparation, I'm not sure of what our stock of PPE was before all hell broke loose. Maybe we were assured we had solid supply chains that could increase the numbers within a matter of days.

Edited March 27, 2020 by imavillan

[markavfc40]

12 minutes ago, Mic09 said:

Again, all the things you mentioned lead me to think the guy in the video was correct.

HOWEVER, would anyone have supported a lock-down 2 months ago? Is any other European country better prepared to REACT to this crisis? I'm not talking about preparation - I am talking about a reaction. 

I can only speak for myself obviously but yes I would. At the very least though we could have stopped things like Cheltenham which just 2 weeks ago had tens of thousands of people within 2cm of each other never mind 2m. Stopped things like Liverpool against Athletico Madrid. Shut pubs/clubs/restaurants weeks not days ago. It is absolutely crazy what this government allowed to happen given they had the benefit of knowing what was coming.

Edited March 27, 2020 by markavfc40

[Genie]

It clearly looks like you’re in the know @ml1dch but I still think given several weeks better offers will come through to the market than we have now. Obviously it’ll depend on the length of this lockdown. The government strategy of keeping as many people in employment by paying their wages is to come out of this like Usain bolt out of the starting blocks. Time will tell of course.

[Genie]

2 minutes ago, markavfc40 said:

I can only speak for myself obviously but yes I would. At the very least though we could have stopped things like Cheltenham which just 2 weeks ago had tens of thousands of people within 2cm of each other never mind 2m. Stopped things like Liverpool against Athletico Madrid. Shut pubs/clubs/restaurants weeks not days ago. It is absolutely crazy what this government allowed to happen given they had the benefit of knowing what was coming.

Cheltenham was unforgivable tbh. 250,000 people at the end during the week, all rubbing shoulders. 

[bannedfromHandV]

1 hour ago, ml1dch said:

They really won't. 

We’re in the process of changing ours right now and they really are / have

[magnkarl]

43 minutes ago, Mic09 said:

I'm very much mixed on this.

Yes, he is correct. But hindsight is a beautiful thing.

I think that most European governments (please give me an example if i'm wrong!) have played out the situation similarly. Some have closed sooner, some later.

While I'm not saying we did well, I'm saying that it looks like other nations haven't coped much better. 

In terms of preparation, I'm not sure of what our stock of PPE was before all hell broke loose. Maybe we were assured we had solid supply chains that could increase the numbers within a matter of days.

To name a few, Germany, Norway, Denmark. They've got low mortality rates now because they test, treat and shut down their countries as soon as Italy started giving out warnings. We did almost a month later. That is a scandal.

Edited March 27, 2020 by magnkarl