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Generic Virus Thread


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1 hour ago, dont_do_it_doug. said:

FWIW Covid has an infection fatality rate of about 0.2-0.3%. It's still a lot of bodies, far too many to do nothing at all IMO. 

It’s about 2% worldwide. 
Around 1.4-1.6% in the UK

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2 hours ago, Stevo985 said:

It’s about 2% worldwide. 
Around 1.4-1.6% in the UK

Yeah, the percentage will creep down as more and more people become protected via vaccination and treatments get better and more widespread, as long as no more aggressive mutations arise.

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8 hours ago, dont_do_it_doug. said:

See, this is why I stay out of the whole mess, because I lean towards agreeing with you on this despite being pro-vaccine generally and triple jabbed. There will always be outliers with every disease, but covid just isn't dangerous to children in any meaningful way and it's about time we faced the fact it is never going away. So I'd want more data that we aren't jabbing them unnecessarily before I would commit. At the very least I would want an honest and frank conversation about it. The problem is, if you say this out loud you're immediately lumped in with the morons and the granny murderers. 

Our society is sick. Maybe it always has been and it took the virus to unveil just how ill we really are. 

Double vaccinated myself Dave. I’m pro vaccination as an whole , and  I think we are both on the same page regarding children being vaccinated unless there’s a damn good reason. Stopping the spread doesn’t cut it. 

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1 hour ago, Rugeley Villa said:

Double vaccinated myself Dave. I’m pro vaccination as an whole , and  I think we are both on the same page regarding children being vaccinated unless there’s a damn good reason. Stopping the spread doesn’t cut it. 

Sounds like a pretty good reason to me!  If stopping the spread makes fewer people sick I don't really see any negative side to it.  No different to any other jab you have as a kid, where let's face it you probably have several times more vaccinations than as an adult (unless you have flu jabs I guess).

 

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Is there any evidence the vaccine is actually dangerous in children.  Or more dangerous that say MMR or pneumonia vaccines?

It's not like we seem to have numbers of children being harmed by the vaccine. I've not heard any reports. 

I guess if your child is the 1 in a million than you'd feel differently.

All this talk about letting the vaccine burn through them to protect the future is wrong though isn't it? I'm sure multiple studies shown that immunity from exposure to the virus Via vaccine is much better than immunity from having actually had it? 

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According to UCL the death rate in children is 1 in 500,000

BBC article

Quote

Researchers estimate that 25 deaths in a population of some 12 million children in England gives a broad, overall mortality rate of 2 per million children.

Around 15 had life-limiting or underlying conditions, including 13 living with complex neuro-disabilities

Vaccines are usually given to protect the individual and from there, the community.

I don’t think they’re usually given to one person to primarily protect another?

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3 hours ago, Rugeley Villa said:

Double vaccinated myself Dave. I’m pro vaccination as an whole , and  I think we are both on the same page regarding children being vaccinated unless there’s a damn good reason. Stopping the spread doesn’t cut it. 

I'm double jabbed and **** tested positive today, bollockssssssssssssssssssss

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So South Africa does a lot of work on DNA sequencing of the virus, shares the result with the world that they have identified a new strain, pleaded with the world not to immediately leap to travel restrictions . . . and we have responded by 'putting South Africa on the red list'.

 

Seems like we want to disincentivise countries from doing any research into the virus.

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2 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

So South Africa does a lot of work on DNA sequencing of the virus, shares the result with the world that they have identified a new strain, pleaded with the world not to immediately leap to travel restrictions . . . and we have responded by 'putting South Africa on the red list'.

 

Seems like we want to disincentivise countries from doing any research into the virus.

It’s not really the kind of thing we can do them a favour on though is it. 

 

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7 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

So South Africa does a lot of work on DNA sequencing of the virus, shares the result with the world that they have identified a new strain, pleaded with the world not to immediately leap to travel restrictions . . . and we have responded by 'putting South Africa on the red list'.

 

Seems like we want to disincentivise countries from doing any research into the virus.

I suspect we suffered a bit from this with the Kent variant.  Brazil have done a lot of this kind of work too haven't they?

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5 minutes ago, Genie said:

What do you think we should have done?

Help with sequencing, share data, test recent arrivals and begin a new testing regimen for arrivals from the specified countries.

In reality, if the variant is as infectious as the worst-case scenarios - which naturally everybody has leapt to assume is definitely the case - then it will become the dominant strain in the UK very quickly anyway. We have not had, and are not going to have, border restrictions as strict as Australia has had during the pandemic, but delta became the dominant strain there anyway.

Border closures are bad, and they are especially bad when they are a punishment specifically for sharing scientific data.

Edited by HanoiVillan
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7 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Help with sequencing, share data, test recent arrivals and begin a new testing regimen for arrivals from the specified countries.

In reality, if the variant is as infectious as the worst-case scenarios - which naturally everybody has leapt to assume is definitely the case - then it will become the dominant strain in the UK very quickly anyway. We have not had, and are not going to have, border restrictions as strict as Australia has had during the pandemic, but delta became the dominant strain there anyway.

Border closures are bad, and they are especially bad when they are a punishment specifically for sharing scientific data.

If they need help then yes, we should do what we can. 
I personally think having strict border controls at least initially till we know a bit more and buy ourselves a bit of time is a good thing. 
Our borders aren’t closed to red list countries. 

 

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6 hours ago, Stevo985 said:

It’s about 2% worldwide. 
Around 1.4-1.6% in the UK

That's confirmed PCR positives though I assume, i.e Case Fatality Rate, which is of course going to be much higher due to asymptomatic cases and non-reported cases. I have never read a study that has the general population IFR as high as that, they have all fallen somewhere between 0.2% and 0.7%, with the majority towards the lower end. Here's one such study, conducted by the science men at the World Health Organisation - https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/340124/PMC7947934.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

It is much higher for institutionalised people, in the region of the numbers you cite. Which is a whole other horrific story. 

Edit - for arguments sake say it is 0.5% and all 8 billion people worldwide were infected, with no vaccine or advancements in therapeutics (something that will also bring the IFR down over time). That would still mean 40 million deaths. I am certainly not underplaying the ferocity of the virus.

 

Edited by dont_do_it_doug.
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12 minutes ago, Genie said:

Our borders aren’t closed to red list countries.

Flights from these 6 countries will be banned, which is basically a border closure.

EDIT: Actually I can't read this article because it's behind a paywall ( 🙄, there's a public health crisis), but the Google text seems to be suggesting it's more severe than just flights being banned:

ban.jpg

Link to the behind-paywall article: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/alarm-over-new-covid-variant-triggers-south-africa-to-go-on-red-list-8gm6w27ff

Edited by HanoiVillan
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