HanoiVillan Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 (edited) Imperial College study on likely outcomes makes for bleak reading: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf On hospitalisation predictions: Shows how steep the gradient of seriousness gets for the 70+ age bracket, but still notable that more than one in ten in the 50+ age bracket are predicted to require hospitalisation. EDIT: Am editing the conclusion for clarity. The paper looks at different possible strategies, which are broadly bracketed as 'mitigation' and 'suppression'. The 'mitigation' measures considered produce results as follows: Note that even the most interventionist of the 'mitigation' strategies leads to surge ICU bed capacity being exceeded by 8x. When considering 'suppression' options, they find that it is possible to remain under surge ICU bed capacity, but there's a catch: . . . and the catch is, while school and university closure, case isolation and quarantine, and whole-societal social distancing might be enough to stay under the surge ICU bed capacity, they create the chance (maybe even certainty) of a second peak later in the year, in the next flu season (this is where the 'herd immunity' question comes in; because the suppression strategies are almost too successful). This means that whatever we end up doing now, we're almost certain to end up doing the same again, or more serious, in the autumn/winter (unless a vaccine becomes available I suppose). It's in this context to understand the part of the conclusion I quoted: Edited March 16, 2020 by HanoiVillan 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted March 16, 2020 Moderator Share Posted March 16, 2020 Gabby Agbonlahor has it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingman Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 3 hours ago, StefanAVFC said: Toon Army outside Gregs Benidorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said: Gabby Agbonlahor has it. Good luck Gabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted March 16, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted March 16, 2020 28 minutes ago, snowychap said: 'Mistake'. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingman Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 6 hours ago, Kingman said: Public Health England Covid-19 Dashboard (I've only just come across this): https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14 8 in Brum 8 in Wolves 5 in Walsall 4in Dudley 1 in Sandwell 6 hours on!.. 15 in Brum 11 in Wolves 11 in Walsall 6 in Dudley 4 in Sandwell 1 in Solihull 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, Chindie said: 'Mistake'. Well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingman Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 2 hours ago, markavfc40 said: My mom who is 75 went to the GP today. After she had spoken with him about her health issue she asked if she should be staying in the house as my son is trying to get me to stay in. He said no as you are reasonably healthy. I am having enough trouble getting her to stay in without the GP telling her otherwise. I feel your pain mate, My father 67, is Diabetic, has COP, high blood pressure and awaiting a triple heart bypass. He still thinks he's going to Dubai next week and Turkey in June! Im just about keeping my shit together! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackbauer24 Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 23 minutes ago, wilko154 said: I'm probably in the minority here but I currently trust the decisions Boris is making. So far the country isn't hit as hard as others, I haven't heard of anyone in my area who has symptoms. It's a bit like the video posted yesterday with the water spilling over the cup, until the hospitals are inundated with patients there is no reason to lockdown the country. A full lockdown of the country will be hugely detrimental to the economy, and if they time it wrong and have to extend it or repeat it it would then double the effects on the economy. The economy may not seem that important right now but it's effectively what holds the world together and prevents anarchy. The nation themselves need to take some responsibility. The elderly and the at risk need to begin self isolation immediately, they should in fact have started already. Walking around Tesco tonight there were still elderly people about, and no doubt there will be all week. The safest place people can be right now is at home, and if people don't have work that's exactly where they should be. Yet I can almost guarantee you that if walk into your local Wetherspoon's tomorrow morning there will be elderly men spread out with a pint reading the paper. The one change I would make right now is something along the lines of what Australia and New Zealand have brought in with everyone landing in the UK having to self isolate for 14 days. Why we are not doing it is baffling. The issue is more when you make decisions. If you close down the country WHEN we reach capacity then you're already too late. For all you know, all your family, friends and colleagues might already be infected and this will become apparent over the next few days/weeks. The question is where on the scale is a closure needed? I'd suggest people won't really care that much if Boris is saying it's fine to work but not to socialise. I'm being told it'd be unwise to go in to a pub and sit a meter or two away from, hopefully, clean adults but that it's perfectly safe for me to go to work with 400 odd snotty nosed, handsy, sneezing coughing kids. It's kind of a mixed message as far as I'm concerned. Where am I more likely to get ill and, more importantly, pass it on to others/ my family? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Kingman said: I feel your pain mate, My father 67, is Diabetic, has COP, high blood pressure and awaiting a triple heart bypass. He still thinks he's going to Dubai next week and Turkey in June! Im just about keeping my shit together! I have had a major breakthrough and my mom has now accepted she needs to stay in and now won't leave the house for anything other than medical reasons. I knew I'd cracked it when she said can you get me a medium warburtons loaf tomorrow and is doing me a list for the Thursday big shop. Keep chipping away mate and be firm and graphic in what could happen if need be. I just watched an interview with someone who lost his dad from this and he wasn't allowed to be in the room when his dad passed. How horrible. You have to convince your old fella given his age and health. Good luck mate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nicho Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 29 minutes ago, wilko154 said: I'm probably in the minority here but I currently trust the decisions Boris is making. So far the country isn't hit as hard as others, I haven't heard of anyone in my area who has symptoms. It's a bit like the video posted yesterday with the water spilling over the cup, until the hospitals are inundated with patients there is no reason to lockdown the country. A full lockdown of the country will be hugely detrimental to the economy, and if they time it wrong and have to extend it or repeat it it would then double the effects on the economy. The economy may not seem that important right now but it's effectively what holds the world together and prevents anarchy. The nation themselves need to take some responsibility. The elderly and the at risk need to begin self isolation immediately, they should in fact have started already. Walking around Tesco tonight there were still elderly people about, and no doubt there will be all week. The safest place people can be right now is at home, and if people don't have work that's exactly where they should be. Yet I can almost guarantee you that if walk into your local Wetherspoon's tomorrow morning there will be elderly men spread out with a pint reading the paper. The one change I would make right now is something along the lines of what Australia and New Zealand have brought in with everyone landing in the UK having to self isolate for 14 days. Why we are not doing it is baffling. While I do understand why you would think he's doing the correct thing as on the face of it it seems sensible. We aren't testing so can't confirm our numbers are lower. We are being different by being exactly the same, thinking it's not a big deal and delaying lock down. everyone understands the impact on the economy and that School children have parents that work in the NHS. Our experts who said delay are about to be proven wrong and we will follow other countries into lock down and we should have followed WHO guidelines, the real experts on virus control. Boris has already lost the plot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 Bloody raging at the news earlier, big special bulletin on how people are buying all the Calpol. Gave those that had missed it off their hoarding list a nice reminder to clear out everything they could find. Why on Earth did they feel the need to report it on the news FFS??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 @snowychap @KentVillan and anyone else interested: I updated the Imperial College post to make the conclusion a bit clearer (hopefully). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingman Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 An interesting conspiracy theory if you want: Impact of coronavirus on stock exchanges worldwide, within 1 month: -26% -26% -25% -27% -20% -19% -16% -24% -14% -17% -12% - 17% Now, look at this: (China) + 0,3% China, creator of the pandemic, has miraculously "recovered", has almost no more cases of coronavirus. The world is now beginning to feel the effects and panic about the disease. Who recovered first ?? China itself! It seems to be that this virus was a move by the Chinese government in response to the loss of the trade war with the United States. The goal: to throw the world into recession !!! Is the scenario not clear? They are already growing! China bought almost everything it devalued on the stock exchanges around the world ... with that the Chinese became owners of the global companies that are in China and without the money leaving China...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 By the way, the context of that post is this tweet: . . . and the damning words 'in the last few days'. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foreveryoung Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 39 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said: Gabby Agbonlahor has it. He'll never be fit enough to survive 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leighavfc Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Kingman said: An interesting conspiracy theory if you want: Impact of coronavirus on stock exchanges worldwide, within 1 month: -26% -26% -25% -27% -20% -19% -16% -24% -14% -17% -12% - 17% Now, look at this: (China) + 0,3% China, creator of the pandemic, has miraculously "recovered", has almost no more cases of coronavirus. The world is now beginning to feel the effects and panic about the disease. Who recovered first ?? China itself! It seems to be that this virus was a move by the Chinese government in response to the loss of the trade war with the United States. The goal: to throw the world into recession !!! Is the scenario not clear? They are already growing! China bought almost everything it devalued on the stock exchanges around the world ... with that the Chinese became owners of the global companies that are in China and without the money leaving China...... Very interesting... you wouldnt put it past them either! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodders Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 (edited) Quote Bloody raging at the news earlier, big special bulletin on how people are buying all the Calpol. Gave those that had missed it off their hoarding list a nice reminder to clear out everything they could find. Why on Earth did they feel the need to report it on the news FFS??? I had a stinking headache earlier and went into the supermarket. All the **** painkillers gone, taken by selfish **** pieces of shit. If you're a panic buyer, it could easily have been someone with more than just a headache, needing relief. words removed to a man woman and child. Edited March 16, 2020 by Rodders 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted March 16, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted March 16, 2020 (edited) So, my family now has to square the circle: Daughter and her feller both work in the NHS, and have to go into work. On crowded buses. Their children have to be looked after by us - one is 13 months old, the other a four year old, going to school. My wife is 62 and immunocompromised, and should therefore self-isolate, but instead is going to be exposed to attack from the bus direction and the school direction. Not good. Edited March 16, 2020 by mjmooney 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts