Generic Virus Thread

[LondonLax]

1 minute ago, blandy said:

I agree with you on the deaths angle. Happily a combination of the vaccine and the unfortunate "reaping" of the pandemic has meant that overall death rates are low.

But it might be worth remembering (for the UK at least) why we implemented the precautions in law - it wasn't so much to stop deaths directly, but to stop the NHS being over-run. I might have posted this a week or so ago, but in essence what we need to be looking at is hospitalisations at this point - both the number and the trend.

What we are seeing now in terms of that is that the pattern we are on is an almost exact repeat of what we saw last autumn.

Where we were 4 days ago is also where we were on the 7th October, both in terms of the number of people in hospital and in terms of the number admitted on that day. And the pattern has been following the same path as August - September - October during this May -June - July. this is despite there being no-one vaccinated back then, and a good number of people vaccinated now (so a much smaller pool of potential victims, you'd think. Obviously the virus is more contagious and more virulent with the Delta version.

What did we do last October time? - we locked down to protect the NHS. What are we doing now? - opening up.

It's true that the deaths are extremely unlikely to pile up as they did building up to a peak in January. But there are other factors, long term illnesses, delayed operations and treatments for all kinds of other stuff that is making people's lives miserable - knee operations, hip operations, cancer treatments....etc. There's also a real risk of cultivating a new variant that is more resistant to vaccines and even more virulent. That's where the carelessness and irresponsibility lies.

Furthermore as cases continue to soar, it is highly likely that other nations will impose travel restrictions on Brits, for fear of importing more cases to their relatively low infection rate nations.

It's all monumentally stupid.

I’m not seeing those big peaks in hospitalisation in your graph that there used to be? 

Countries restrict travel from the U.K. because you have a high number of cases and they don’t want to import cases into a potentially less vaccinated population, fair enough. That’s no reason for the U.K. to worry about its highly vaccinated population though. 

Having argued all this back and forth what exactly is the big difference between today and Monday? You are already freely spreading the virus around under the current regulations, let people get on with their lives. 

[Genie]

2 hours ago, LondonLax said:

You guys have been under restrictions for so long you are afraid to leave the false comfort of them. The panic is palpable. 

 

Nobody is panicking, just discussing facts.

[bickster]

14 minutes ago, blandy said:

Furthermore as cases continue to soar, it is highly likely that other nations will impose travel restrictions on Brits, for fear of importing more cases to their relatively low infection rate nations.

Already started, Bulgaria redlisted UK about an hour ago

[Genie]

On the radio on the way home there was a piece about track and trace not being modified to ping less people. They had a lady from SAGE on who said it’s not T&T fault so many people are getting pinged, it’s because so many people have the virus and it’s been allowed to get out of control. Sounded like another dig at Boris and a “we didn’t recommend this”.

[trekka]

5 minutes ago, bickster said:

Already started, Bulgaria redlisted UK about an hour ago

Ironic given that Bulgaria is about to enter the UK "green list".  You couldn't make it up. 

[bickster]

1 hour ago, romavillan said:

not prioritised getting first doses so that they could plaster loads of headlines about being ahead of the evil EU and get good press, and actually methodically vaccinated the population. After being so far 'ahead' the UK only has 50% of the population fully vaccinated, it's unforgivable, the UK could have been 75% double dosed by now.

Firstly as already pointed out, your figures are wrong and secondly the reason they aren't as high as you'd imagine is largely down to non-government factors in all honesty. It's down to idiots not wanting to get vaccinated. I doscovered today that we have an entire department of five women in our work, who ALL refuse to get the vaccine on the grounds "It's experimental". I think they've all come to some collective group think. One of them told me today that she might have had it by now, if she hadn't been told she had to have it as she doesn't like being told to do anything. Yes I know the complete logical fallacy contained in there but they aren't alone.

[Genie]

1 hour ago, Xela said:

The last time we were recording these numbers daily (as in cases) was January and over 1000 people were dying daily. We're nowhere near that.

The numbers are high because we're testing like maniacs at the minute.

Two people at my work have it - both describe it as a mild cold. Both are jabbed. 

It’s not mild for the 717 people hospitalised today.

It would be really interesting to know their vaccination status. I will have a lot less sympathy for them if they are “you’re not putting that poison in me” types. 
I wonder how fussy they would be about the treatment for coronavirus after they’d caught it?

[LondonLax]

12 minutes ago, bickster said:

Firstly as already pointed out, your figures are wrong and secondly the reason they aren't as high as you'd imagine is largely down to non-government factors in all honesty. It's down to idiots not wanting to get vaccinated. I doscovered today that we have an entire department of five women in our work, who ALL refuse to get the vaccine on the grounds "It's experimental". I think they've all come to some collective group think. One of them told me today that she might have had it by now, if she hadn't been told she had to have it as she doesn't like being told to do anything. Yes I know the complete logical fallacy contained in there but they aren't alone.

Exactly. Imagine if you waited until all those people had been double dosed before you allowed everyone else to go to a gig or the football again. 

[markavfc40]

It would be interesting to know the age of those getting seriously ill with coivd and needing hospitalisation now.

If it is people 40+ who have had the opportunity to be double jabbed but not taken it, other than for very good medical reasons, then I have little sympathy for them.

 

If however it is younger people who haven't yet had the opportunity to be fully vaccinated then to me opening up completely now seems very unfair on them. At the start of all this we told younger people we had to lock down/shut down the economy to protect the NHS and older people. Surely we should pay those younger people the same courtesy and wait till they have been fully vaccinated if it is them who are now getting seriously ill.

 

I am hoping those that are getting seriously ill are still in the older age groups who haven't been fully vaccinated. 

Edited July 16, 2021 by markavfc40

[Xela]

26 minutes ago, Genie said:

It’s not mild for the 717 people hospitalised today.

It would be really interesting to know their vaccination status. I will have a lot less sympathy for them if they are “you’re not putting that poison in me” types. 
I wonder how fussy they would be about the treatment for coronavirus after they’d caught it?

These are the figures they should be releasing. 

I would guess if the people in hospital had all been double jabbed, it would have been reported as the disaster it would be. As we haven't heard anything i'm going to assume its the non jabbed in the main. Just a guess. 

[sharkyvilla]

10 minutes ago, markavfc40 said:

It would be interesting to know the age of those getting seriously ill with coivd and needing hospitalisation now.

If it is people 40+ who have had the opportunity to be double jabbed but not taken it, other than for very good medical reasons, then I have little sympathy for them.

 

If however it is younger people who haven't yet had the opportunity to be fully vaccinated then to me opening up completely now seems very unfair of them. At the start of all this we told younger people we had to lock down/shut down the economy to protect the NHS and older people. Surely we should pay those younger people the same courtesy and wait till they have been fully vaccinated if it is them who are now getting seriously ill.

 

I am hoping those that are getting seriously ill are still in the older age groups who haven't been fully vaccinated. 

I'm surprised they don't give out the data on that, I've heard them say that a couple of weeks ago it was almost entirely unvaccinated people getting seriously ill but since then I've not really found anything.

[trekka]

10 minutes ago, sharkyvilla said:

I'm surprised they don't give out the data on that, I've heard them say that a couple of weeks ago it was almost entirely unvaccinated people getting seriously ill but since then I've not really found anything.

Hmm, this is what worries me the most.  Are we seeing more people with the AZ vaccine going into hospital vs the Pfizer vaccine for example? As someone who is about to have his 2nd AZ dose tomorrow, I watch with interest!

Edited July 16, 2021 by trekka

[LondonLax]

5 minutes ago, trekka said:

Hmm, this is what worries me the most.  Are we seeing more people with the AZ vaccine going into hospital vs the Pfeizer vaccine for example? As someone who is about to have his 2nd AZ dose tomorrow, I watch with interest!

That would be very interesting to know. It’s odd how the Uk which is predominantly AZ has so much higher case numbers than most of the EU which is predominantly Pfizer. There are so many other factors at play it is impossible to draw conclusions unless you could look at the effectiveness of the two brands in just the Uk setting and get some useful data.

[trekka]

The Government fudge it and make it up as they go along yet again.  No red call on France but instead anyone entering from the country need to isolate for 10 days upon arrival (including those fully vaccinated).  

What do they know that we don't?  

Sky News

Edited July 16, 2021 by trekka

[Chindie]

That the wheels are about to fall off.

[Genie]

Imagine reading this from @trekka’s link above 

Quote

Key points:

• Double-jabbed people returning from France will have to quarantine from 19 July, government announces
• UK records 51,870 new cases and 49 deaths 

• Wetherspoon outlines its new rules for its pubs from Monday (16.41 post)

• No plans to change sensitivity of NHS contact tracing app after half a million people pinged in a week
• The government's top medic warns the number of people in hospital with coronavirus could reach "quite scary" levels within weeks
• South Tyneside and Sunderland NHS Trusts tell staff to postpone holidays as they are under 'extreme pressure' 
• Bulgaria bans UK travellers from Monday - the same day it's added to the UK's green list
• Uber confirms masks will remain mandatory from Monday (16.47 post)

and then realise that we’re 48 hours from removing restrictions. Proper WTF. 

Edited July 16, 2021 by Genie

[markavfc40]

So anyone coming from France has to quarantine for 10 days. Week ending the 14th July there were 244k new covid cases in UK. In France the were 27k. Predominant variant in France is the Kent variant that was the predominant variant in UK at one point. Almost all covid cases in UK are now the Johnson variant which is considered far more transmissible than the Kent variant. It seems to me you'd be safer in France than in UK. The Government are once again taking the piss. 

Edited July 16, 2021 by markavfc40

[chrisp65]

4 hours ago, LondonLax said:

You guys have been under restrictions for so long you are afraid to leave the false comfort of them. The panic is palpable. 

 

 

What are these restrictions you speak of?

I have to wear a mask when I interact with people, other than that, I’m struggling to think what false comfort I’m getting from restrictions.

The panic is non-existent.

 

However, I am very aware that ordinary people that are being vox popped saying we should just get on with it, are probably the same people that can’t have their minor op because the NHS is gearing up for 1,000 covid patients a day. It’s not about deaths, its not about cases, it’s about the NHS being taken out of commission for another 3 months.

 

[trekka]

1 hour ago, markavfc40 said:

So anyone coming from France has to quarantine for 10 days. Week ending the 14th July there were 244k new covid cases in UK. In France the were 27k. Predominant variant in France is the Kent variant that was the predominant variant in UK at one point. Almost all covid cases in UK are now the Johnson variant which is considered far more transmissible than the Kent variant. It seems to me you'd be safer in France than in UK. The Government are once again taking the piss. 

Seems to be concern over the Beta variant that is the issue.  That having fun with the Delta variant and we could be looking at a "Belta" variant (I know, I know...) which doesn't sound good. A quick search brings up this but I expect there are many more reputable sources for more information:

Quote

A senior government source said: “They are worried about the South African variant because they think it escapes the vaccine, although they don’t have evidence of that yet.

“It appears to be why a lot of countries in Africa and the Middle East are on the red list despite low prevalence rates.”

iNews

 

Edited July 16, 2021 by trekka

[romavillan]

2 hours ago, bickster said:

Firstly as already pointed out, your figures are wrong and secondly the reason they aren't as high as you'd imagine is largely down to non-government factors in all honesty. It's down to idiots not wanting to get vaccinated. I doscovered today that we have an entire department of five women in our work, who ALL refuse to get the vaccine on the grounds "It's experimental". I think they've all come to some collective group think. One of them told me today that she might have had it by now, if she hadn't been told she had to have it as she doesn't like being told to do anything. Yes I know the complete logical fallacy contained in there but they aren't alone.

52% of the UK population is fully vaccinated so not really that wrong?

Agree that the anti-vaxxers are a big problem in the UK, there's a big correlation between brexit voters, q style and 5g conspiracy theorists and anti vax. Just look at the numbers on the protests and the treatment of Whitty in his home the other day.