Chindie Posted July 16, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted July 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, trekka said: Another ~50,000 cases and ~700 people admitted to hospital in the latest update. This doesn't bode well . Shut up and live with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulC Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 16 minutes ago, trekka said: Another ~50,000 cases and ~700 people admitted to hospital in the latest update. This doesn't bode well . Yes thats double the amount of cases reported two weeks ago. I underestimated the 100k a day figure. We'll be at that by the beginning of August. This govt is a joke. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted July 16, 2021 Moderator Share Posted July 16, 2021 4 hours ago, Davkaus said: 300-400k infection rate in England (54m) is between 0.55-0.75% of the population, still very high, but not 2%. Currently more than 1% of England’s population has COVID. The rate of increase is not slowing down. And we haven’t opened up yet. The WHO have called opening up “stupid”. Scientists are pleading that it should not happen. Other countries leaders ditto. We have the worst number of cases in the world. It’s really not going to end well 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekka Posted July 16, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted July 16, 2021 Government warned of 100,000 cases a day Just a reminder that Health Secretary Sajid Javid had previously warned that case numbers could reach 50,000 a day by 19 July - as they now have. And earlier this week, he said that the daily coronavirus cases in the UK could reach 100,000 later this summer. But he said he did not think this would put "unsustainable pressure on the NHS". That's because vaccinations have created a "protective wall" meaning we can "withstand a summer wave", he added. Central estimates from modellers advising the government also show that Covid deaths are expected to be between 100 and 200 per day at the peak, although there is a large amount of uncertainty over that. BBC Hospitals around the country would disagree. Birmingham hospitals are already cancelling operations (including transplants) due to the growing number of those who require critical care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 Just now, blandy said: Currently more than 1% of England’s population has COVID. The rate of increase is not slowing down. And we haven’t opened up yet. The WHO have called opening up “stupid”. Scientists are pleading that it should not happen. Other countries leaders ditto. We have the worst number of cases in the world. It’s really not going to end well I was critiquing some maths, not suggesting the rate isn't going to reach a certain level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted July 16, 2021 Moderator Share Posted July 16, 2021 Just now, Davkaus said: I was critiquing some maths, not suggesting the rate isn't going to reach a certain level I know. I’m not disagreeing. I used a sample of your post to connect to today’s figures for added context to the discussion around how 100,000 + per day , or 200,000+ is highly likely to happen within a few weeks and isn’t at all non-credible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 You guys have been under restrictions for so long you are afraid to leave the false comfort of them. The panic is palpable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekka Posted July 16, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted July 16, 2021 (edited) 23 minutes ago, LondonLax said: You guys have been under restrictions for so long you are afraid to leave the false comfort of them. The panic is palpable. I think going by past performance of this Government, some of us are right to be panicked. Go and have yourself a "merry little Christmas" he said. That turned out well. Edited July 16, 2021 by trekka 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 (edited) 12 minutes ago, trekka said: I think going by past performance of this Government, some of us are right to be panicked. Go and have yourself a "merry little Christmas" he said. That turned out well. Yeah, the U.K. government has not exactly exceeded expectations It makes it difficult to separate the logic from the rhetoric. There is no trust or good will, everything is viewed through a political lens. Edited July 16, 2021 by LondonLax 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xela Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 The last time we were recording these numbers daily (as in cases) was January and over 1000 people were dying daily. We're nowhere near that. The numbers are high because we're testing like maniacs at the minute. Two people at my work have it - both describe it as a mild cold. Both are jabbed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romavillan Posted July 16, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted July 16, 2021 48 minutes ago, LondonLax said: You guys have been under restrictions for so long you are afraid to leave the false comfort of them. The panic is palpable. Well, if handled properly then restrictions can get lifted. Here in Italy no masks needed outside anymore, everything is open during the day and some nightlife is coming back. You think it isn't sensible to be concerned at an exponential rise in cases and new infections being at 50k a day? That's going to be 200k soon. The much vaunted UK vax programme has **** up badly, leaving a massive amount of the population with no dose or only one which the delta variant loves. Every new infection is a whole new bunch of replications of the virus where every one is a chance for a mutation to turn up a vaccine resistant variant. Then you have a little bit more to worry about than having to wear a mask or not. It's insane for the UK to open up at the moment, not just for the UK population but for the rest of the world who haven't acted like a bunch of dicks (apart from Brazil and the US before Biden and some others). 14 minutes ago, Xela said: Two people at my work have it - both describe it as a mild cold. Both are jabbed. Yeah that's great and everything, but the fact they have it means they can pass it on and the amount of vaccinated people that do this heightens the risk of a vaccine resistant strain. Plus if everything opens up and tons of vaccinated people get it and pass it on, you are guaranteeing it gets at the non vaccinated people just by the sheer number of infected people infecting others. Being vaccinated does not stop you from giving it to other people and if no-one can be arsed with a mask or to try and stop spread in other ways then it'll spread faster than ever. There are reports of people under 50 getting permanent organ damage from it now. It really isn't just a sniffle, or flu. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rugeley Villa Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 5 hours ago, StefanAVFC said: In my defence, I barely slept and had to get up at 6 to drive 200km to work. I've also had my head in a book looking at statistics all day Yeah the point still stands really. We simply won't ever be in a situation where 0.5-%0.7% of the population are getting infected every day. Even 100k a day is far-fetched. 100k is certainly not far fetched. It will eat 100k a day for breakfast. The deaths will rise, but thank god for the vaccines which will stop it being truly scary. Expect hospitals to start getting overrun as the next few months pass then tight restrictions as we head towards Xmas. This isn’t me being all doom and gloom, it’s just reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharkyvilla Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 11 minutes ago, romavillan said: Well, if handled properly then restrictions can get lifted. Here in Italy no masks needed outside anymore, everything is open during the day and some nightlife is coming back. You think it isn't sensible to be concerned at an exponential rise in cases and new infections being at 50k a day? That's going to be 200k soon. The much vaunted UK vax programme has **** up badly, leaving a massive amount of the population with no dose or only one which the delta variant loves. Every new infection is a whole new bunch of replications of the virus where every one is a chance for a mutation to turn up a vaccine resistant variant. Then you have a little bit more to worry about than having to wear a mask or not. It's insane for the UK to open up at the moment, not just for the UK population but for the rest of the world who haven't acted like a bunch of dicks (apart from Brazil and the US before Biden and some others). Yeah that's great and everything, but the fact they have it means they can pass it on and the amount of vaccinated people that do this heightens the risk of a vaccine resistant strain. Plus if everything opens up and tons of vaccinated people get it and pass it on, you are guaranteeing it gets at the non vaccinated people just by the sheer number of infected people infecting others. Being vaccinated does not stop you from giving it to other people and if no-one can be arsed with a mask or to try and stop spread in other ways then it'll spread faster than ever. There are reports of people under 50 getting permanent organ damage from it now. It really isn't just a sniffle, or flu. Trying to understand the 'UK tax programme has **** up badly' bit, I'm struggling to see what we could have done differently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romavillan Posted July 16, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted July 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, sharkyvilla said: Trying to understand the 'UK tax programme has **** up badly' bit, I'm struggling to see what we could have done differently? not prioritised getting first doses so that they could plaster loads of headlines about being ahead of the evil EU and get good press, and actually methodically vaccinated the population. After being so far 'ahead' the UK only has 50% of the population fully vaccinated, it's unforgivable, the UK could have been 75% double dosed by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 24 minutes ago, romavillan said: Well, if handled properly then restrictions can get lifted. Here in Italy no masks needed outside anymore, everything is open during the day and some nightlife is coming back. You think it isn't sensible to be concerned at an exponential rise in cases and new infections being at 50k a day? That's going to be 200k soon. The much vaunted UK vax programme has **** up badly, leaving a massive amount of the population with no dose or only one which the delta variant loves. Every new infection is a whole new bunch of replications of the virus where every one is a chance for a mutation to turn up a vaccine resistant variant. Then you have a little bit more to worry about than having to wear a mask or not. It's insane for the UK to open up at the moment, not just for the UK population but for the rest of the world who haven't acted like a bunch of dicks (apart from Brazil and the US before Biden and some others). Yeah that's great and everything, but the fact they have it means they can pass it on and the amount of vaccinated people that do this heightens the risk of a vaccine resistant strain. Plus if everything opens up and tons of vaccinated people get it and pass it on, you are guaranteeing it gets at the non vaccinated people just by the sheer number of infected people infecting others. Being vaccinated does not stop you from giving it to other people and if no-one can be arsed with a mask or to try and stop spread in other ways then it'll spread faster than ever. There are reports of people under 50 getting permanent organ damage from it now. It really isn't just a sniffle, or flu. Cases are now divorced from deaths. The excess mortality in the U.K. is lower than ‘normal’ but the media make a big song and dance about 50 people dying when in reality it is normal for about 1,600 people to die every day in the U.K. Covid is now no longer a cause of death you need to worry about (you probably should give up smoking though ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post blandy Posted July 16, 2021 Moderator Popular Post Share Posted July 16, 2021 1 hour ago, LondonLax said: You guys have been under restrictions for so long you are afraid to leave the false comfort of them. The panic is palpable. I can only speak for myself, but I have no panic, or even alarm, really. I'm kind of wearily resigned to the fact that our government is absolutely appallingly incompetent and that it puts short term, really short term opinion poll boost stuff ahead of public safety. I look at all the data quite closely, as I know others do, and it's pretty easy to see what's happened and going to happen in terms of the cases/health impacts and deaths. From a personal perspective, I've had Covi once, it was nasty, but I didn't go to hospital, I'm double jagged (the ol' John Prescott situation!) and have carried on working throughout all of it - so I'm good and not worried or panicked from a personal perspective. I also know that like, basically, everyone, I want freedoms back - to do y'know, life and proper travel and music and sport and friends and all that. It just looks like a slow motion car crash, where you can see the big sign that says "ravine ahead, slow down" and you can see the car heading towards it, with the driver intent on ignoring the information and ploughing on regardless. Previously of course the driver had driven all the old people's home residents into the ravine, stolen the kids and Uni students books and exam results, failed to lock the gate and let the crocodiles into the country, at Christmas he had spread not goodwill, but death by reckless conduct...and now he's at it again. it's just sad and incompetent. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romavillan Posted July 16, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted July 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, LondonLax said: Cases are now divorced from deaths Right so there's no connection between people dying from covid and them getting the virus? The fact that daily deaths are down from the same number of infections a year ago is great news, when you hit 200k new infections a day it won't be so easy to dismiss. The fact you think 50 people dying in a day isn't something to worry about is hopefully to do with so many having already needlessly died already and not because you don't think 50 people dying a day is not a tragedy, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharkyvilla Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 21 minutes ago, romavillan said: not prioritised getting first doses so that they could plaster loads of headlines about being ahead of the evil EU and get good press, and actually methodically vaccinated the population. After being so far 'ahead' the UK only has 50% of the population fully vaccinated, it's unforgivable, the UK could have been 75% double dosed by now. Do you mean the whole population or the adult population? Two-thirds of the adult population have been double-dosed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, romavillan said: Right so there's no connection between people dying from covid and them getting the virus? The fact that daily deaths are down from the same number of infections a year ago is great news, when you hit 200k new infections a day it won't be so easy to dismiss. The fact you think 50 people dying in a day isn't something to worry about is hopefully to do with so many having already needlessly died already and not because you don't think 50 people dying a day is not a tragedy, Unfortunately you can’t stop people from dying. It’s part of living. There is a focus on these 50 people when the other 1550 people who died yesterday are ignored. If you look at the ‘excess mortality’ for the U.K. you will see fewer people died in the U.K. yesterday than would be considered ‘normal’ in pre Covid times. You can see the data here https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ You will notice the line for the U.K. is currently running below the dotted line which indicates ‘normal’ over the last few years. If you are trying to eliminate all deaths in society you are on a losing ticket. If you are willing to tolerate a pre COVID ‘normal’ level of deaths per day you have leeway to open up your society more than it currently is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted July 16, 2021 Moderator Share Posted July 16, 2021 18 minutes ago, LondonLax said: If you are willing to tolerate a pre COVID ‘normal’ level of deaths per day you have leeway to open up your society more than it currently is. I agree with you on the deaths angle. Happily a combination of the vaccine and the unfortunate "reaping" of the pandemic has meant that overall death rates are low. But it might be worth remembering (for the UK at least) why we implemented the precautions in law - it wasn't so much to stop deaths directly, but to stop the NHS being over-run. I might have posted this a week or so ago, but in essence what we need to be looking at is hospitalisations at this point - both the number and the trend. What we are seeing now in terms of that is that the pattern we are on is an almost exact repeat of what we saw last autumn. Where we were 4 days ago is also where we were on the 7th October, both in terms of the number of people in hospital and in terms of the number admitted on that day. And the pattern has been following the same path as August - September - October during this May -June - July. this is despite there being no-one vaccinated back then, and a good number of people vaccinated now (so a much smaller pool of potential victims, you'd think. Obviously the virus is more contagious and more virulent with the Delta version. What did we do last October time? - we locked down to protect the NHS. What are we doing now? - opening up. It's true that the deaths are extremely unlikely to pile up as they did building up to a peak in January. But there are other factors, long term illnesses, delayed operations and treatments for all kinds of other stuff that is making people's lives miserable - knee operations, hip operations, cancer treatments....etc. There's also a real risk of cultivating a new variant that is more resistant to vaccines and even more virulent. That's where the carelessness and irresponsibility lies. Furthermore as cases continue to soar, it is highly likely that other nations will impose travel restrictions on Brits, for fear of importing more cases to their relatively low infection rate nations. It's all monumentally stupid. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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