Generic Virus Thread

[AVFC_Hitz]

Haven't seen my dad or sister since Christmas 2019. My mum came over for the birth of my daughter last July but had to quarantine for 14 days when she got back. I might have a Birmingham Christmas after all.

[Panto_Villan]

37 minutes ago, bickster said:

For @Stefanand @fightoffyour et al. Grant Schapps just announced that they'll announce (yeah I know) a plan for vaccinated ex-pats to enter the UK in a couple of weeks

That would be great. My parents have never met their first grandchild and if they can't get back by November they won't be there for the birth of their second either.

Unfortunately they live in a red list country so I doubt they'll be covered by this plan.

[blandy]

19 hours ago, fightoffyour said:

There **** better be. I won't quarantine because I got vaccinated in another country, it's simply not happening. The EU needs to say that the NHS vaccine won't be accepted in that case.

It's not their call - they can say what they like, but it's up to individual countries who they let in and under which circumstances.

This whole pandemic has, though, showed just how awful and petty politicians in both the continent and UK actually are, in the main part. Almost none of them come out of this with any credit.

[blandy]

16 hours ago, cyrusr said:

Jab number 2 done today. Just hoping that the all of these vaccinations actually start impacting on the spread of the virus; whilst the hospital/death numbers are still relatively low, they are still rising. 

This is the thing, the core of it, I think.

From the start of the pandemic and still even now, the number 1 key metric is the number of hospitalisations, with deaths second. Obviously both those metrics lag the number of infections per day, but they tell you the most critical piece of data. If the hospitals can't cope, then Catastro-**** - everything goes to rats - deaths, jobs, economy, other health, mental health, the lot.

Once the vaccine programme starts, it's still the key metric up to the point that the percentage of the population vaccinated reaches the level at which the virus has basically nowhere to go - 85% of the whole population vaccinated. At that point, you can ease all the other measures and deaths is then the key metric to monitor.

[Genie]

As @blandy said, the problem for governments has always been hospitalisations.

If people were dying quickly at home then I really don’t think there would have been lockdowns. It’s just their obligation to not let the hospital system collapse.

 

 

[blandy]

5 minutes ago, Genie said:

As @blandy said, the problem for governments has always been hospitalisations.

If people were dying quickly at home then I really don’t think there would have been lockdowns. It’s just their obligation to not let the hospital system collapse.

Obviously I agree on the first point. But on the second, hypothetical one, I don't really - though we'll never know. If we imagine a scenario where people catching the virus die almost immediately - probably the closest would be something like Ebola, then I suspect that both the government measures would have been even more strict and severe and also that people would have been even more fearful and absolutely voluntarily wouldn't have been wanting to leave their homes. Also, for example, these people who are anti-vax, or anti-masks etc. wouldn't be so if the probability of death for Covid was much higher. There would be no "microchips and hoax" conspiracy nutters marching through fancy London with idiot placards.

So basically it's human risk assessment versus ideology (however daft that ideology is) - the greater the risk of something that doesn't conform with your belief system killing you, the less inclined you are to ignore the rules and precautions against it. But even then idots exist and breed. People still climb into Crocodile enclosures, or Tiger cages. It doesn't usually end well for these Darwinian efftards, mind.

[villa89]

So it appears that the plan is to let the delta variant run riot now in the summer so the winter isnt so bad. By locking down you are just delaying the inevitable. Interesting.

[blandy]

34 minutes ago, villa89 said:

So it appears that the plan is to let the delta variant run riot now in the summer so the winter isnt so bad. By locking down you are just delaying the inevitable. Interesting.

I really don’t get this theory. We’re still vaccinating people. The more people are vaccinated the fewer will catch, spread, suffer from COVID-19. That’s science fact. So the later you relax all measures, the smaller the “inevitable” will be. Further, the risk of mutations also reduces. I understand the arguments around people and businesses needing/wanting freedom, but letting the delta variant run riot now is imbecilically stupid. We’ll end up with other nations banning uk people from visiting, hospitals over worked, more delayed operations and longer disruption than if we had been just a bit more measured and patient.

[LondonLax]

48 minutes ago, blandy said:

I really don’t get this theory. We’re still vaccinating people. The more people are vaccinated the fewer will catch, spread, suffer from COVID-19. That’s science fact. So the later you relax all measures, the smaller the “inevitable” will be. Further, the risk of mutations also reduces. I understand the arguments around people and businesses needing/wanting freedom, but letting the delta variant run riot now is imbecilically stupid. We’ll end up with other nations banning uk people from visiting, hospitals over worked, more delayed operations and longer disruption than if we had been just a bit more measured and patient.

Trouble is you reach a bit of a plateau with the vax uptake. A certain portion of the population will never take it and the only way to get those guys antibodies is to let them catch the virus. It’s better that this happens in the summer when the pressure on the hospital system is lower and peoples immune systems are stronger. 

I can see the logic. 

[sharkyvilla]

I wonder what would happen if the Delta or a new variant does start to cause large numbers hospitalisations and deaths but those who are suffering are almost entirely from the 15% or so who refused the vaccine.  Do you lockdown everybody again or just say tough shit, you had your chance to get protected from it?

[ender4]

1 hour ago, LondonLax said:

Trouble is you reach a bit of a plateau with the vax uptake. A certain portion of the population will never take it and the only way to get those guys antibodies is to let them catch the virus. It’s better that this happens in the summer when the pressure on the hospital system is lower and peoples immune systems are stronger. 

I can see the logic. 

We seem to be getting close to that limit now - less than 100k first doses every day this week.   Is everyone else just not bothered to have a vaccine now?  That's a lot of adults not vaccinated, roughly 7.5m.

Edited July 9, 2021 by ender4

[blandy]

1 hour ago, LondonLax said:

Trouble is you reach a bit of a plateau with the vax uptake. A certain portion of the population will never take it and the only way to get those guys antibodies is to let them catch the virus. It’s better that this happens in the summer when the pressure on the hospital system is lower and peoples immune systems are stronger. 

That would be true if we’d reached the plateau, but we haven’t. There’s a well over quarter of a million doses being given daily. Hospital admissions are doubling week by week and this last week almost 3000 people have been hospitalised with it…and we haven’t opened up yet

[blandy]

3 minutes ago, ender4 said:

less than 100k first doses every day this week

Second doses is much larger, it’s good that people are getting the full vaccine protection that, after a further 2 weeks, enhances suppression of spread and illness much more than just the one dose. The government has acted too soon.

[ender4]

3 minutes ago, blandy said:

Second doses is much larger, it’s good that people are getting the full vaccine protection that, after a further 2 weeks, enhances suppression of spread and illness much more than just the one dose. The government has acted too soon.

yes, good in that sense.  But now anyone can have the first jab, no appointments necessary, no supply issues, you'd think the 7.5m people who haven't yet come forward would be going to get a jab a little faster than 80-100k people per day.

[Genie]

9 minutes ago, ender4 said:

That's a lot of adults not vaccinated, roughly 7.5m.

F%#k ‘em

 

 

(as long as it’s their choice not to have it)

[blandy]

2 minutes ago, ender4 said:

yes, good in that sense.  But now anyone can have the first jab, no appointments necessary, no supply issues, you'd think the 7.5m people who haven't yet come forward would be going to get a jab a little faster than 80-100k people per day.

Maybe, but 96430 people today and 700,000 first doses this week suggests there’s still demand.

[trekka]

20 minutes ago, blandy said:

That would be true if we’d reached the plateau, but we haven’t. There’s a well over quarter of a million doses being given daily. Hospital admissions are doubling week by week and this last week almost 3000 people have been hospitalised with it…and we haven’t opened up yet

This is my real concern.  Cases are growing quite rapidly and the number of hospitalisations are growing (albeit slowly) too.  We've yet to see the real impact of the Euros and I fear come next week, we'll be seeing much larger increases.  That is before the big bang opening.  They still don't really know the long-term effects of "long COVID". 

The arrogance of people now is really getting on my nerves.  Popped into the local Co-Op today and the number of people walking in with their families and others chatting with their mates not wearing masks and reaching over people... 

Just to add an edit.  I was chatting to someone at work today and her poor Mum still can't go outside due to the risk after having her immune system suppressed due to Leukaemia.   Things are only looking bleaker for them as they have been told the vaccine won't necessarily help them. 

Edited July 9, 2021 by trekka

[blandy]

14 minutes ago, trekka said:

Cases are growing quite rapidly and the number of hospitalisations are growing (albeit slowly) too

The level and rate of hospitalisations is nigh on identical to that in early September. Obviously people will remember that was the point at which the science was saying “you need to do a firebreak lockdown” or it’ll massively escalate. They didn’t and it did. So hospitalisation numbers and rates now are replicating those of before the vaccine, just before an explosion of cases and subsequent hospitalisations. There maybe a smaller pool of potential victims, but there’s also a much more infectious and harmful variant at large.

[sidcow]

My 15 year old nephew is still fairly ill and still testing positive 4 weeks after first diagnosed. 

[Genie]

41 minutes ago, trekka said:

We've yet to see the real impact of the Euros and I fear come next week, we'll be seeing much larger increases.

Me too. If Scotland fans 24 hours in London generated over 2,000 cases there must be 10’s of thousands on there from England fans up and down the country as well as in London for several large scale parties.