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Generic Virus Thread


villakram
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4 minutes ago, blandy said:

Sorry to go back to this, but I saw another article repeating the AZ 60% figure I posted the other day.

 

Apples and Oranges I think :) The >95% I was referring to was deaths. And even hospital admissions are in the 90s. The 60% figure is just for infection (I assume to mean any kind of symptoms whatsoever).

(same article as above):

Quote

protection against infection fell from 92% for the Alpha variant to 79% against the Delta variant for the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, while for the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine the protection fell from 73% to 60% respectively.

Quote

 

What about hospital admissions?
Protection against severe disease is a crucial metric, not least for assessing the potential pressures a new wave of infections could place on health services. The good news is that for this outcome the jabs appear to offer similar protection against both variants.

According to an analysis by PHE, the Pfizer/BioNTech jab was linked to a 94% vaccine effectiveness against hospital admission with the Delta variant after one dose and 96% after two doses, while the figures for the Oxford/AstraZeneca jab were 71% and 92% respectively.

 

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5 minutes ago, darrenm said:

Apples and Oranges I think :)

Deffo. I was really just providing a link source to what I'd said the other day from "something I'd read somewhere". Kind of correcting/updating myself really - I'd written Can’t say it’s gospel, but I saw a thing where someone had broken down the figures.

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Poland is down to about 12 cases per 100,00 cumulative over the past 14 days and vaccinations must be up to about 50%.

Portugal troughed at about 25 per 100k when it was green listed with roughly the same proportion of vaccines administered, so it would be remarkable for travel not to be allowed with only 1 overpriced test required after the next update. Therefore....red list incoming.

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11 minutes ago, fightoffyour said:

Poland is down to about 12 cases per 100,00 cumulative over the past 14 days and vaccinations must be up to about 50%.

Portugal troughed at about 25 per 100k when it was green listed with roughly the same proportion of vaccines administered, so it would be remarkable for travel not to be allowed with only 1 overpriced test required after the next update. Therefore....red list incoming.

Labour used their Opposition Day debate to demand the abolition of the amber list and to place all the countries currently on it onto the red list 🙄

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9 minutes ago, SuperTed said:

Mail Article

Apologies for it being The Mail but it’s the only one I can find with the images included in the article.

Boris apparently called Hancock “totally f*****g hopeless”

 

The Mail are liars and Boris is a liar, therefore that statement is true (which was already evident).

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Latest update from my doctor neighbour (works in Bradford) - almost down to single figures covid cases now. Mostly unvaccinated under-30s from the Asian community. And not critical - just a bit short of breath, so appreciating a blast of oxygen. She reckons they would have been sent home during the mad phase of the pandemic. All looking pretty good. 

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Apparently no new green list countries on the next review (although this is a week before a 3-weekly review process, so pinch if salt even though it's believable), even Malta which hasn't had any new cases for 11 days (apparently, can't be bothered to fact check [I know, I know]).

However, travel to finally be allowed for vaxxers to and from green or amber list countries from the end of July - all according to this guy:

and this barely legible Torygraph front page:

E4CJc3VUUAIz_3U?format=jpg&name=large

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There isn’t much info on those that are sadly passing away from Covid like there was back in the first few months of the pandemic. I want to know what ages of people are still dying within 28 days of a positive test. The numbers are less than 20 deaths a day currently, whilst it is around that amount it should be relatively simple to say the age ranges. I want to know if is young people dying, is it people who haven’t had the vaccine at all, or is it people who have had both jabs but got it and died anyway… 

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51 minutes ago, mjmooney said:

Latest update from my doctor neighbour (works in Bradford) - almost down to single figures covid cases now. Mostly unvaccinated under-30s from the Asian community. And not critical - just a bit short of breath, so appreciating a blast of oxygen. She reckons they would have been sent home during the mad phase of the pandemic. All looking pretty good. 

I'm not sure what's happening with the virus at the moment. If you look at things like this it's all doom and gloom. Apparently we're definitely in a 3rd wave:

And you look at the new cases, it looks similar to the beginning of September

image.png.dcd1196aeb0c00280ea1222f0ae55764.png

According to the previous trends, you will then see hospital admissions rising a week or so later, and then deaths rising 2 to 3 weeks later. 

Hospitals yes, a bit:

image.png.92e21b957db4d108ea7182a2955a8ee5.png

Deaths, not yet at least:

image.png.e480c7a88c45f7621306a229b0f5f5ad.png

So the data would seem to support the expectation that we'll get the unvaccinated passing it around and getting infected, some of whom will end up in hospital and an extremely small number will die of it.

Also, I wonder how many of the people being admitted to hospital now are being done so just in case where they would have been told to stay home before.

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3 minutes ago, darrenm said:

I'm not sure what's happening with the virus at the moment. If you look at things like this it's all doom and gloom. Apparently we're definitely in a 3rd wave:

It is more of a mixed picture this time. Yes, definitely a third wave. But not yet doom and gloom

It seems like the good news is for the people who have been vaccinated and the bad/less good news is for those who haven't yet, which is still a whole large chunk of people mostly young people and kids. While they're not generally as badly affected as older people, there's still a proportion who are nevertheless quite hard hit. Then there's the anti-vaxxers and those who can't be vaxed - these people too are being hit by the virus and ending up in the hospitals exactly as you say.

But because of better treatments that have come to light, because of the impact of vaccination on reducing severity, there are relatively few deaths so far, as you also say.

Opening up is/was always going to cause an increase in cases, and that will escalate next month when the country opens up more. But early signs are that the vaccine programme, particularly with the extra 4 weeks, is likely to mean there's no commensurate surge in hospitalisations (though there will still be a fair old number).

The worry will always be that another variant - Vietnamese for example - will come along, the government (as they have all the way through) will not take it seriously and will act too late and do too little. The virus hasn't gone away, it's still capable of rapidly escalating and exponentially spreading, it's continuing to mutate. That won't change until or unless the whole world is vaccinated, and even then...

If you look at what happened with Bolton and Blackburn which were hotspots - that has now spread right across the North West. That sort of thing is likely to repeat, I'd think - an outbreak, a big rise in local cases, and then a spread geographically.

At least, that's how it looks to me.

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FWIW Test and Trace appear to have upped their game

Only once in the whole time of the Pandemic have I been asked to supply passenger details for a driver who has got or come into contact with COVID. Except for the last two weeks, when I've been asked twice. Also, we now appear to being contacted by local council run test and trace teams, way before national dido fwits get in touch. The Council run teams seem far more switched on that dido's tits who are actually getting worse in terms of the information they are even providing, so much so, the last email of theirs was replied with a "you cant be serious" response. Incident last Saturday, we took 28,800 bookings and all they've given me is a name, now being as most people if asked a name (only required in public places) say Bob or Julie, you can imagine how impossible it is to find the booking.

Anyway, local teams seem much better.

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1 hour ago, darrenm said:

I'm not sure what's happening with the virus at the moment. If you look at things like this it's all doom and gloom. Apparently we're definitely in a 3rd wave:

Yes, I should qualify my neighhour's assessment, as she did concede that we're 2 or 3 weeks behind the curve, and expects a rise in admissions quite soon. But still nothing like the horrors of last year. 

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Every metric is rising but the new cases increase is mirrored much lower in the hospital /death figures than it would have been. 

I don't see any more delays.  Cases will continue, hospital admissions and deaths will continue but we'll just open up and live with it.  I totally get the desire for the extra month to get those shots in arms. 

My 18 year old neice was diagnosed today.  Hopefully at that age she will shrug it off. 

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Have a look at Sweden for an example with no change in restrictions. There was a wave over Christmas with corresponding rise in deaths but the next wave in cases in April (driven by the Kent variant) didn’t correspond with a wave of deaths like the previous two.

Excess mortality in Sweden has been at normal levels since February when the oldies were first vaccinated. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

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So The EU has lost its legal proceedings against AstraZeneca to supply more doses that they don't even want. 

Knobbers. 

Maybe AstraZeneca can now concentrate on making more vaccine for those who do actually want it now. 

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51 minutes ago, sidcow said:

So The EU has lost its legal proceedings against AstraZeneca to supply more doses that they don't even want. 

Knobbers. 

Maybe AstraZeneca can now concentrate on making more vaccine for those who do actually want it now. 

EU politicians are twunts, just like ours. 

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