Generic Virus Thread

[bickster]

3 minutes ago, sidcow said:

I just don't see how we can possibly have similar hospitalisations as the first 2 waves. 

The fact it's more transmissible is an irrelevance.  Unless the vaccines have almost zero affect on it.  It may spread easily/quickly but its going to do that in the main through young people i.e those not yet vaccinated. 

Not to say it won't have any effect, but I just don't see how it can lead to that many hospitalisations. 

There will be a reason they've speeded up the second jab rate, expecting to be contacted next week about mine

[Panto_Villan]

3 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

 

 

While that correlation does make logical sense, without the population density data the raw number of cases per day isn't very useful. It might just be that the population density is way higher in the city center.

[sidcow]

14 minutes ago, bickster said:

There will be a reason they've speeded up the second jab rate, expecting to be contacted next week about mine

I hadn't seen that, this means I am now overdue my second jab! 

If this is twice as contagious as the Kent Variant, and seeing how the Kent Variant caused so much havoc in Europe, they are going to seriously regret their reticence on AstraZeneca because they still have so many unvaccinated people it could go through Europe like a hot knife through butter. 

[trekka]

8 minutes ago, bickster said:

There will be a reason they've speeded up the second jab rate, expecting to be contacted next week about mine

That and the fact that there was one place reported on Sky News earlier who was vaccinating anyone who turned up over the age of 18 (until they ran out of doses that is).  That raises some concerns in itself.  I think the worry is how this variant might affect the younger age groups. If you're young and not in the vulnerable category, there is still a risk of hospitalisation.  That and of course that the vaccines aren't 100% effective therefore those particularly vulnerable might well be at risk if it runs rampant again.  

[Panto_Villan]

3 minutes ago, sidcow said:

I hadn't seen that, this means I am now overdue my second jab! 

If this is twice as contagious as the Kent Variant, and seeing how the Kent Variant caused so much havoc in Europe, they are going to seriously regret their reticence on AstraZeneca because they still have so many unvaccinated people it could go through Europe like a hot knife through butter. 

I think most of (Western) Europe has got the most vulnerable vaccinated now. It's nowhere near as bad news for them as it would have been 2-3 months back.

[chrisp65]

9 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

While that correlation does make logical sense, without the population density data the raw number of cases per day isn't very useful. It might just be that the population density is way higher in the city center.

Oh yeah, absolutely, as a few others have mentioned upstream there are a million variables.

I just thought it was interesting how ‘clear’ a correlation was showing. Once you dive in, I’m sure there are also sorts of things to discuss. the numbers are so small, even in Bolton, that it could still be a single office or family or event.

 

There was a community spokesperson called Saeed on earlier, suggesting the lack of take up may be due to Ramadan. It’s a theory, but then you’d expect it to be replicated across similar areas of similar towns.

[trekka]

If anyone missed it from the tweet linked above, here is the SAGE note being referenced in the media:

Eighty-Ninth SAGE Meeting on COVID-19 (Gov Website)

 

[StefanAVFC]

Again, it's a poor reception of risk by those in charge.

There are viruses and bacteria flying around all of the time, that risk hospitalising people.

You cannot keep delaying normality, and keep shifting the goalposts. It's been too long already.

[Panto_Villan]

10 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Oh yeah, absolutely, as a few others have mentioned upstream there are a million variables.

I just thought it was interesting how ‘clear’ a correlation was showing. Once you dive in, I’m sure there are also sorts of things to discuss. the numbers are so small, even in Bolton, that it could still be a single office or family or event.

 

There was a community spokesperson called Saeed on earlier, suggesting the lack of take up may be due to Ramadan. It’s a theory, but then you’d expect it to be replicated across similar areas of similar towns.

Yeah, it's very stark and is 100% in line with my thinking too. I'm just trying not to let confirmation bias take me over completely!

[Davkaus]

15 months of this. We can't eradicate it. Vaccinate as many as possible, give boosters to the vulnerable as there are mutations, and let's get on with our **** lives. Enough is enough.

Edited May 14, 2021 by Davkaus

[MCU]

Is that muppet planting a seed early on about delaying the uplifting of restrictions from June 21st? I’m sorry, but enough is enough. There needs to be some sort of push back here, this is getting ridiculous. It will never end otherwise.

[trekka]

3 minutes ago, MCU said:

Is that muppet planting a seed early on about delaying the uplifting of restrictions from June 21st? I’m sorry, but enough is enough. There needs to be some sort of push back here, this is getting ridiculous. It will never end otherwise.

Read the note I posted above from SAGE.  I'm not defending Boris, but if he / the Government ignored the scientific advice and things went downhill quite badly...

[StefanAVFC]

Should be huge scale protests if they try to push it back tbh. Massively justified too.

[blandy]

28 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

Again, it's a poor reception of risk by those in charge

No. They understand risk extremely well.

There may however be a high degree of caution being exercised due to the limited knowledge of the precise impact of the vaccine on this variant. What is known is largely from India, which is an absolute horror show, which may be leading to an abundance of caution. Better than than casual dismissal from the scientific angle.

[mjmooney]

2 hours ago, villakram said:

Some of those long term, slow roll costs.

 

Confirmed by my anaesthetist neighbour. He says they're pretty much on top of covid, but they just can't make a dent in the operations backlog. And they are crazily understaffed. And Brexit has decimated their usual influx of nursing staff from the EU. 

[bickster]

6 minutes ago, mjmooney said:

And Brexit has decimated their usual influx of nursing staff from the EU.

Not helped by the fact they keep deporting EU citizens coming here to look for work in the NHS

[sidcow]

11 minutes ago, mjmooney said:

 And Brexit has decimated their usual influx of nursing staff from the EU. 

Taking control of our borders. 

[sidcow]

You would have thought that the extra £350m per week we're now getting for the NHS instead of giving to Europe would pay for a few extra doctors and nurses.  No? 

[sharkyvilla]

16 hours ago, MCU said:

Is that muppet planting a seed early on about delaying the uplifting of restrictions from June 21st? I’m sorry, but enough is enough. There needs to be some sort of push back here, this is getting ridiculous. It will never end otherwise.

One of the four tests for lifting restrictions has always been, are there any new variants of concern, which there clearly is now with this.  They gave themselves 4 weeks between each stage so they have 3 weeks' data to give a week's notice.  It all seems sensible to me, especially as each new variant seems to be a bit worse than the last one.  Let's wait and see what happens, hopefully the vaccine just deals with it.

Anyway I got a text yesterday saying they've got an 'unexpected' delivery of Pfizer and I can queue up tomorrow between 9 and 7 to get it, on a first-come-first-served basis.  I'm trying to work out what the best time would be.

[sidcow]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57102422

Covid vaccines have saved 11,700 lives and 33,000 hospital admissions

Quote

Coronavirus vaccines have saved 11,700 lives and stopped 33,000 people becoming seriously ill with Covid-19 in England, research suggests.

The Public Health England analysis, up to the end of April, found people in their 70s and 80s had seen the biggest fall in deaths and hospital admissions.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the figures were "remarkable".

Getting a vaccine is "one of the most important things you will be asked to do in your lifetime", he added.

Quote

Public Health England (PHE) used data on how well the vaccines are working and the number of people being vaccinated in different age groups, to calculate deaths and illness prevented from Covid.

It is estimated that, thanks to vaccines:

9,900 deaths were prevented in people aged 80 and over

1,500 deaths in those age 70-79

300 deaths in those aged 60-69

and:

16,000 hospital admissions were prevented in people aged 85 and over

13,100 admissions in those aged 75-84

3,900 admissions in those aged 65-74

Quote

The latest government data - based on evidence from the UK rollout - suggests one dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine cuts the risk of infection by as much as 70%, and serious illness and death by even more.

If someone is less likely to become infected and have symptoms, then the spread of the virus between people is also less likely.