Generic Virus Thread

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

4 minutes ago, It's Your Round said:

it doesn’t help matters when people don’t even know

If I look at the UK and the way its dealing with Covid,  the high numbers in the UK are a lot to do with th population and not the policies in place IMO.

Swap the people only (UK / Germany) and the UK would have had half the deaths is my guess.

There are a lot of **** idiots living in the UK.

[DCJonah]

Daughter has symptoms so heading off for a test. Anyone got any tips for sticking something down a 5 year olds throat and up her nose?

I'm nervous she's just going to flat out refuse and then we're stuck indoors for 10 days. 

Currently offering every bribe we can think of before we set off. 

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

3 minutes ago, DCJonah said:

I'm nervous she's just going to flat out refuse and then we're stuck indoors for 10 days. 

Sort a bribe out on the way ?

(Maccie D or Magazine with all that plastic shit on the we front? as a quick win  or tell her you think she has a monster living in her head and the man will look if he can see it  that's why we all wear masks to stop them jumping out your mouth)

Edited April 1, 2021 by Amsterdam_Neil_D

[stuart_75]

15 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

the high numbers in the UK are a lot to do with the population and not the policies in place IMO.

I think that might upset one or two on here.

[chrisp65]

15 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

If I look at the UK and the way its dealing with Covid,  the high numbers in the UK are a lot to do with th population and not the policies in place IMO.

Swap the people only (UK / Germany) and the UK would have had half the deaths is my guess.

There are a lot of **** idiots living in the UK.

It’s so very complex, it must be close to impossible to work out how different actions would impact the numbers.

I went down a rabbit hole yesterday evening of working out the respective England and Wales figures.

As straight cold maths, england has 111,000 dead, wales has 5,507 dead. But crudely, england has 20 times the population. But, if the death rate in Wales was the same as england, we would have had 6,230 dead. So my initial thought, was that earlier and stricter restrictions have saved 723 lives. Flip it the other way, if Mark Drakeford had been in charge of england’s response, england would have 12,500 fewer dead.

 But its way too crude a tool.

The ethnic mix for starters, is going to throw that figure off. The percentage of the population that are remote, will throw the figure off. Possibly the staffing levels in hospitals. Quality of housing stock. The quality of messaging from different governments. Can we blame the UK public for being idiots if the people in charge didn’t take it seriously. A PM that insisted he would still shake hands, royalty that suggested it would all blow over in a month, political advisor celebrities going on holiday to Barnards Castle because they suspected they might have it! The theory of herd immunity at the highest political levels. I don’t know if similar idiocy was happening around Germany’s political leaders. 

I think there are far too many variables to blame the population.

But I do agree wholeheartedly agree, we have our fair share of idiots. but it might be how you deal with your idiots that matters. We tend to promote them to high office. 

 

 

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

5 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

I think there are far too many variables to blame the population.

You might be right it is very complex but it hurt the UK in places like Bradford,  Leicester and the like for the reasons you highlighted.  Poor housing and overcrowding which I suppose can be landed at the the Governments who let it end up like this where poverty is a driver for your chance of getting through the Pandemic.  If the poverty was not there then the figures would be much lower so yes,  its **** complicated.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

31 minutes ago, stuart_75 said:

I think that might upset one or two on here.

I know but I honestly think this is the case here to some extent. 

But,  on the bright side, by the end of this the UK will not be the highest for deaths etc is my guess.  

They (UK) are going to be 6 months ahead with no deaths per day in the next week or so,  look at Germany,  France and Holland now,  they are scared,  Macron looks scared,  they **** it up.

[Genie]

I’m hearing that the testing in schools near me are throwing up loads of positive tests in all year groups.

Makes you wonder how many lives would have been saved if children were tested last year, and then isolated upon positive tests?

They were ignored because they didn’t show symptoms, but peddling it round the community.

[bickster]

And today, I have finally been vaccinated. In and out in three minutes was my guess. Registration, take a seat but I was ushered straight through, sat down answered some questions, job done. I think my combined walk to and from the car took longer.

[HanoiVillan]

15 hours ago, brommy said:

It was bound to happen at some point, but yesterday was the first day the number of second doses given exceeded the number of first doses given. Still nearly half a million doses in one day.

I assume this is a practical indication that second doses within 12 weeks of the first dose will be a priority over first doses for those not in the 9 most vulnerable groups.

I don't hold this feeling with conviction, but . . . isn't there an argument that this is in fact basically a worse option than delaying more second doses and keep giving out more first doses? We know vaccinated people *transmit* the virus roughly 90% less, so wouldn't it eradicate transmission faster if there was a much smaller reservoir of totally unvaccinated people?

I presume the principled disagreement with this is well, we haven't tested an interval longer than 12 weeks. But then again, we hadn't tested 12 weeks either when we began that. My guess is the real motivator is that it would be too politically toxic to delay second doses and be seen as taking doses from more vulnerable older people to give to less vulnerable younger ones.

[snowychap]

25 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

We know vaccinated people *transmit* the virus roughly 90% less

A pertinent question to throw in would surely be: for how long does this reduction in transmission last for those who have had just the first dose of each vaccine type and will/might it tail off significantly without the second dose?

 

[HanoiVillan]

4 minutes ago, snowychap said:

A pertinent question to throw in would surely be: for how long does this reduction in transmission last for those who have had just the first dose of each vaccine type and will/might it tail off significantly without the second dose?

 

Yes, that's a good question, I don't know the answer but I feel like I saw a paper that tried to answer it. Can't remember where I saw it though.

[sidcow]

1 minute ago, snowychap said:

A pertinent question to throw in would surely be: for how long does this reduction in transmission last for those who have had just the first dose of each vaccine type and will/might it tail off significantly without the second dose?

 

This is exactly it. I think they have decided that the 12 week period is the Goldilocks zone for the second jab to provide the most effectiveness and longevity of protection.

The only reason the drug companies did the 4 week delay within their trials was to get the results and therefore vaccine approvals rushed through 2 months earlier than if they used the usual delay.   Most existing dose vaccines take a 12 week delay.    I would assume if they delayed much longer the initial protection would start to decrease plus the double protection of  doses would not be as strong.

So whilst they have deviated from the "science" of the trial results they are following established science from other known vaccines and won't deviate from that.

[bickster]

39 minutes ago, sidcow said:

This is exactly it. I think they have decided that the 12 week period is the Goldilocks zone for the second jab to provide the most effectiveness and longevity of protection.

The only reason the drug companies did the 4 week delay within their trials was to get the results and therefore vaccine approvals rushed through 2 months earlier than if they used the usual delay.   Most existing dose vaccines take a 12 week delay.    I would assume if they delayed much longer the initial protection would start to decrease plus the double protection of  doses would not be as strong.

So whilst they have deviated from the "science" of the trial results they are following established science from other known vaccines and won't deviate from that.

Fairly sure there was a paper released about 2 weeks after the Govt changed the 2nd dose interval that suggested that it was the correct move and provided longer lasting protection. As I recall it kinda killed the "you've got to do it at four weeks" argument stone cold dead.

[sidcow]

6 minutes ago, bickster said:

Fairly sure there was a paper released about 2 weeks after the Govt changed the 2nd dose interval that suggested that it was the correct move and provided longer lasting protection. As I recall it kinda killed the "you've got to do it at four weeks" argument stone cold dead.

And yet, I think I am right that in Europe they are still sticking with 4 weeks? 

Edited April 1, 2021 by sidcow

[bickster]

6 minutes ago, sidcow said:

And yet, I think I am right that in Europe they are still sticking with 4 weeks? 

It's not like Europe have a great track record here. To be demonstrably worse than us in tackling this speaks volumes

[Genie]

39 minutes ago, sidcow said:

And yet, I think I am right that in Europe they are still sticking with 4 weeks? 

I think Europe are going out of their way to do everything different to us. 
They are desperate for one of our bold vaccine related strategies to go tits up to distract from their own **** ups.

Edited April 1, 2021 by Genie

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

2 hours ago, bickster said:

And today, I have finally been vaccinated. In and out in three minutes was my guess. Registration, take a seat but I was ushered straight through, sat down answered some questions, job done. I think my combined walk to and from the car took longer.

What did you have ? (Make)

[bickster]

32 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

What did you have ? (Make)

Vauxhall Astra

[LondonLax]

49 minutes ago, Genie said:

I think Europe are going out of their way to do everything different to us. 
They are desperate for one of our bold vaccine related strategies to go tits up to distract from their own **** ups.

Europe is not one country.

Different countries have different strategies, some are applying the delayed second dose, some are sticking to the manufacture’s instructions.