HanoiVillan Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 (edited) Catching up on Covid a year ago, on what was a momentous week in many ways. Firstly, misinformation that downplayed Covid being a *respiratory* virus was the order of the day at Public Health England: This was a bad decision. The 'real' justification - that a run on masks would prevent healthcare workers getting adequate PPE - was completely fair, but health authorities should have been open and honest about that, rather than lying, which has led to a lot of very pointless hygiene theatre about spraying surfaces, while many people spent the year inadequately ventilating communal spaces. Even more fateful: On the 5th, SAGE began converging in earnest on the herd immunity strategy. Two key assumptions in choosing this strategy: first, that social distancing measures couldn't last any longer than 2-3 months for most people, and 3-4 months for old people: Second key assumption - that vaccines are a distant prospect: This is a particularly fateful decision, which it seems to me had two massive negative consequences. The first is that, had the public health experts had more faith in the vaccine scientists, decisions could have been made with a more accurate time horizon in mind. And secondly, it would have avoided some of the 'vaccine hesitancy' - not a big problem in this country, but a big issue in America - based around suspicion that the vaccine process was rushed. Finally, some light relief: Edited March 8, 2021 by HanoiVillan 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 Not a great response perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted March 8, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted March 8, 2021 2 hours ago, sne said: Not a great response perhaps I was saying to Mrs Sidcow the other day, they made that film encouraging vaccine take up with Elton John and Michael Caine. Not been funny but the only people going to take notice of them are the older people who were already massively encouraged to take the vaccine. They really need to be engaging with people like Grime Artists, Internet influencers, footballers, younger film stars and TV stars etc. encouraging vaccine take up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 1 hour ago, sidcow said: I was saying to Mrs Sidcow the other day, they made that film encouraging vaccine take up with Elton John and Michael Caine. Not been funny but the only people going to take notice of them are the older people who were already massively encouraged to take the vaccine. They really need to be engaging with people like Grime Artists, Internet influencers, footballers, younger film stars and TV stars etc. encouraging vaccine take up. They absolutely are doing that. I had no idea they had Elton John and Michael Caine advertising to encourage vaccine taking, but i am fully aware of the big celebrity names in my personal ethnic group doing adverts encouraging my ethnicity to take the vaccine. I'm also aware that the govt has signed up Instagram influencers and Youtubers to advertise vaccine take-up amongst the younger generation on the relevant platforms. Those campaigns won't happen quite yet, as the 18-39 age bracket isn't yet being vaccinated. So they are targeting the right celebs at the right people at the right time for maximum impact. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekka Posted March 8, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted March 8, 2021 What the fudge is happening in Chile? Our World in Data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 Presumably that's an admistrative artefact? Like, they've reclassified a whole bunch of deaths as Covid deaths or something? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 (edited) Agree with Hanoi above rather than my initial thought Edited March 8, 2021 by ender4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted March 8, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted March 8, 2021 Exactly one year ago today, I was at a local gig. In a small club, absolutely rammed, everybody hugging, shaking hands, drinking and singing... and making the occasional nervous joke about covid. As far as I know, we've all survived. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted March 8, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted March 8, 2021 1 hour ago, ender4 said: They absolutely are doing that. I had no idea they had Elton John and Michael Caine advertising to encourage vaccine taking, but i am fully aware of the big celebrity names in my personal ethnic group doing adverts encouraging my ethnicity to take the vaccine. I'm also aware that the govt has signed up Instagram influencers and Youtubers to advertise vaccine take-up amongst the younger generation on the relevant platforms. Those campaigns won't happen quite yet, as the 18-39 age bracket isn't yet being vaccinated. So they are targeting the right celebs at the right people at the right time for maximum impact. Not my demographic so probably why I only knew about the old buggers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted March 8, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted March 8, 2021 (edited) 47 minutes ago, mjmooney said: Exactly one year ago today, I was at a local gig. In a small club, absolutely rammed, everybody hugging, shaking hands, drinking and singing... and making the occasional nervous joke about covid. As far as I know, we've all survived. Probably more by luck than anything else though. A couple of infected people at the gig could have seen a very different outcome. It's hard to imagine how little Covid there was in circulation back then. Ac occording to official stats there had only been 2 confirmed Covid deaths in the UK this time last year so there was actually very little in circulation. But by 18th March we had 34 in a single day that took the total to 116. We were at just under 2,500 by the end of March. So not much about but an explosion. Even so on a national scale you would have to be pretty unlucky to encounter it on 8th March 2020. Edited March 8, 2021 by sidcow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted March 8, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted March 8, 2021 And now you could fill Villa Park twice over with corpses from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted March 8, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted March 8, 2021 36 minutes ago, sidcow said: Probably more by luck than anything else though. A couple of infected people at the gig could have seen a very different outcome. Well I did say "as far as I know" - all my friends and all the musicians and their families are fine, can't speak for all the strangers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 8, 2021 Moderator Share Posted March 8, 2021 I see test and trace are still working off a spreadsheet. We got a request for contacts today... This is our third request in a year, we even now are doing around 12,000 bookings a day When sending a spreadsheet for someone to fill in, putting an asterisk in a box and saying mandatory, does not make it mandatory They also seem incapable of checking the information they send out, today they managed to send an address as just a postcode (yep we don't use postcodes) and the postcode in question doesn't exist EDIT: They are now going to phone up one of the drivers concerned and tell him to self-isolate for... less than 12 hours as the exposure was on 27th Feb. Another for 1.5 days and a third for 2.5 days. Yep they are almost at the point of pointlessness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 Usual caveats for a Monday apply, but only 65 deaths today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post darrenm Posted March 8, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted March 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Genie said: Usual caveats for a Monday apply, but only 65 deaths today. Actually only 12 yesterday and 0 today because they can't yet count today The 65 is historically added deaths to the total. Yesterday it was 124,501 and today the total is 124,566. Those 65 could have been from any time so it doesn't mean much to the situation right now. But.. it's probably about right. I'm having to do a polynomial trend now because the rate of decrease has slowed down slightly. I've removed data for the last 3 days because it's incomplete and very low (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths click the data tab). Then again, it may not actually be incomplete and we may be close to single figures. We may be only days away from a day where not a single person dies of COVID-19. In the most respectful way as each of these deaths are tragic in themselves, I don't think looking at death figures is as important now because now the vast majority of the at risk have been vaccinated, this shouldn't go up again unless there's an outbreak of a new variant that takes us by surprise. Cases will tell us more and they're also dropping quickly right now. The question is, will they continue to drop with schools back and restrictions being relaxed? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 Covid-19: School rapid test cannot be overruled, says minister Quote The government is sticking to the rule that a positive rapid Covid test done in secondary schools in England cannot be overruled by the gold-standard tests processed by labs. Concerns have been raised by testing experts that significant numbers could be incorrectly told they are infected. They have called for all positives from the rapid testing done in schools to be confirmed by the standard PCR test. This is what will happen when testing is done at home after next week. It will mean a pupil who tests positive at home with a rapid on-the-spot test - known as a lateral flow test - will have to isolate on the basis of that test, but will be told to get a PCR test which is processed in a lab. If that PCR test is negative they will be released from isolation. But for those done in schools - pupils are being offered three tests in the next two weeks - it will be assumed the lateral flow test is right. A PCR test cannot overrule the lateral flow test. ...more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 8, 2021 Moderator Share Posted March 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, snowychap said: Covid-19: School rapid test cannot be overruled, says minister No VAR for Covid 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted March 8, 2021 Moderator Share Posted March 8, 2021 2 hours ago, darrenm said: Cases will tell us more and they're also dropping quickly right now. The question is, will they continue to drop with schools back and restrictions being relaxed? Unlikely, I'd have thought. As soon as people start mixing in numbers again, the cases will go back up - the virus hasn't gone away. And then factor in this idiocy from the nuckfuggets 1 hour ago, snowychap said: [quoting an article] The government is sticking to the rule that a positive rapid Covid test done in secondary schools in England cannot be overruled by the gold-standard tests processed by labs. Concerns have been raised by testing experts that significant numbers could be incorrectly told they are infected. And you'll have all those false positives in the mix. Whether it will lead to big hospitalisations, though is less clear - with all the jags getting done fingers crossed it doesn't go pear shaped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted March 8, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted March 8, 2021 1 hour ago, bickster said: No VAR for Covid I've seen the test in action. It's already got lots of hard to decipher lines all over it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 (edited) 8 hours ago, blandy said: And you'll have all those false positives in the mix. Whether it will lead to big hospitalisations, though is less clear - with all the jags getting done fingers crossed it doesn't go pear shaped. Wouldn't the government's position of over caution, i.e. ignoring superior tests contradicting inferior ones ... meaning that more would isolate (including families and bubbles), thus mean a damping down on potential transmission? Obviously, it's wrong - for those who may be captured by this and also because it may reduce voluntary uptake of these tests (I don't believe they are mandatory) - but I don't see, other than an adverse effect upon the uptake of tests outweighing the effect of false positives, that it would make things worse in the wider population. Edited March 9, 2021 by snowychap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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