Generic Virus Thread

[Brumerican]

Looks like the RLC will be hitting the roads next week.

Up the Loggies !

[markavfc40]

10 minutes ago, leighavfc said:

My partner works in a hospital, she says in her hospital they have got the correct PPE etc as far as she knows. She also told me that idiots are not just going into the hospital with symptoms they are also arguing about having to put it on... wtf are these people on?

I have also been told that the masks are useful for around half an hour before being overloaded with germs etc. This is a big concern if true!!!!

It is good to see the hospital where your wife works has the PPE sadly a lot aren't so fortunate although fortune shouldn't come into having something as basic as this to do your job especially when that job is saving lives. This shouldn't be a postcode lottery but is widespread issue has shown by the despair coming from many healthcare professionals. Just today thousands of NHS staff wrote an open letter to the Government in The Times.

I could have some sympathy if we were one of the first to be hit by this but we have had the benefit of seeing what is happening in other countries yet seem to be one of the worst prepared. Obviously our situation is compounded due to the low starting base we are building from and major issues like the lack of ICU beds in comparison to a lot of countries. We are going to be quickly overwhelmed.

[mjmooney]

29 minutes ago, Awol said:

Chinese state propaganda machine switched from story 1 (US special forces covertly spread the virus in Wuhan), to a new line pinning the blame on Chinese migrant workers becoming infected in N Italy and bringing it home.

While we rightly focus on managing our public health emergency, it’s worth remembering all the normal chicanery and inter-state competition continues as normal. China is positioning hard for the post-COVID blame game. 

Not just the blame game. There's been a sense in the last few years that America's days as the pre-eminent world power are over, and that China will be the new global superpower. This pandemic will guarantee it. The U.S. is totally ill-equipped to deal with this, and is going to be in deep, deep shit very soon. It doesn't need to be a deliberate conspiracy, this would have happened sooner or later anyway. Better get learning Mandarin. 

[Tomaszk]

56 minutes ago, rjw63 said:

My dishwasher broke down last week, had a new one delivered yesterday. Thought I'd take the old one to the local tip to dispose of.

A thirty minute **** queue to get in! Why the **** is everyone dumping rubbish at the same time?

All that pasta has to go somewhere. Make space for the toilet roll.

[LakotaDakota]

One of the few articles that seems to be coming at it from the this is a massive over reaction side : As usual with the mail the comments underneath make for some interesting reading

https://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2020/03/peter-hitchens-is-shutting-down-britain-with-unprecedented-curbs-on-ancient-liberties-really-the-bes.html#comments

We are warned of supposedly devastating death rates. But at least one expert, John Ioannidis, is not so sure. He is Professor of Medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University in California. He says the data are utterly unreliable because so many cases are going unrecorded.

He warns: ‘This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4 per cent rate from the World Health Organisation, cause horror and are meaningless.’ In only one place – aboard the cruise ship Diamond Princess – has an entire closed community been available for study. And the death rate there – just one per cent – is distorted because so many of those aboard were elderly. The real rate, adjusted for a wide age range, could be as low as 0.05 per cent and as high as one per cent.

As Prof Ioannidis says: ‘That huge range markedly affects how severe the pandemic is and what should be done. A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05 per cent is lower than seasonal influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.’

 

Original John Ioannidis article from a week ago

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable. Given the limited testing to date, some deaths and probably the vast majority of infections due to SARS-CoV-2 are being missed. We don’t know if we are failing to capture infections by a factor of three or 300. Three months after the outbreak emerged, most countries, including the U.S., lack the ability to test a large number of people and no countries have reliable data on the prevalence of the virus in a representative random sample of the general population.

This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless. Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future.

The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.

Edited March 22, 2020 by LakotaDakota

[snowychap]

 

[Kingman]

Haaands washing hands... Don't touch me... I wont touch you!.. 

Sweeet Caroline...  

 

[chrisp65]

 

 

[limpid]

4 hours ago, Jareth said:

Apparently loss of smell and scent happens to those who otherwise don't show symptons - useful finding today from an ENT doctor...

Have you got a link for this?

[HanoiVillan]

4 minutes ago, limpid said:

Have you got a link for this?

Loss of sense of smell as marker of COVID-19 infection

'There is already good evidence from South Korea, China and Italy that significant numbers of patients with proven COVID-19 infection have developed anosmia/hyposmia. In Germany it is reported that more than 2 in 3 confirmed cases have anosmia. In South Korea, where testing has been more widespread, 30% of patients testing positive have had anosmia as their major presenting symptom in otherwise mild cases. 

In addition, there have been a rapidly growing number of reports of a significant increase in the number of patients presenting with anosmia in the absence of other symptoms – this has been widely shared on medical discussion boards by surgeons from all regions managing a high incidence of cases. Iran has reported a sudden increase in cases of isolated anosmia, and many colleagues from the US, France and Northern Italy have the same experience. I have personally seen four patients this week, all under 40, and otherwise asymptomatic except for the recent onset of anosmia – I usually see roughly no more than one a month. I think these patients may be some of the hitherto hidden carriers that have facilitated the rapid spread of COVID-19. Unfortunately, these patients do not meet current criteria for testing or self-isolation.

While there is a chance the apparent increase in incidence could merely reflect the attention COVID-19 has attracted in the media, and that such cases may be caused by typical rhinovirus and coronavirus strains, it could potentially be used as a screening tool to help identify otherwise asymptomatic patients, who could then be better instructed on self-isolation.

Given the potential for COVID-19 to present with anosmia, and the reports that corticosteroid use may increase the severity of infection, we would advise against use of oral steroids in the treatment of new onset anosmia during the pandemic, particularly if it is unrelated to head trauma or nasal pathology (such as nasal polyps).'

more on link: https://www.entuk.org/loss-sense-smell-marker-covid-19-infection

[LakotaDakota]

9 minutes ago, limpid said:

Have you got a link for this?

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-symptoms-loss-of-smell-taste-covid-19-anosmia-hyposmia-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

    A sudden loss of smell — known as anosmia or hyposmia — could be a symptom of the coronavirus, even if patients experience no other symptoms, according to leading rhinologists in the UK.
    Evidence from South Korea, China, and Italy suggests that many patients with COVID-19 may have experienced a loss of smell without any other symptoms.
    The British Association of Otorhinolaryngology calls on the authorities to advise anyone with a loss of smell or taste to self-isolate.
    Young people could be more likely to carry the disease without presenting the more commonly recognised symptoms of fever and coughing, they believe.

 

The linked website seems to be dead/very slow to load

https://www.entuk.org/loss-sense-smell-marker-covid-19-infection

Edited March 22, 2020 by LakotaDakota

[sne]

 

[Vive_La_Villa]

3 hours ago, markavfc40 said:

Anyone who knows Tesco at New Oscott these were the scenes this morning. Not taken by me by the way.

Apparently it’s been like this at stores all over the Midlands. I just can’t get my head around it. 

[wazzap24]

The Norwegian clinical trial for Hydroxychloroquine looks to be starting tomorrow. 
 

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/study/NCT04316377?cond=Coronavirus&draw=2&rank=8

Quote

Chloroquine is one of two therapeutics (in addition to remdesivir) that has demonstrated in vitro inhibitory effects on SARS-CoV-2 and the drug is immediately available from national pharmacies. No delay is accordingly expected in treatment initiation after study commencement. In light of the evidence supporting chloroquine as a promising therapeutic in patients with COVID-19, the expected impact of the current proposal is considerable both in the short- and long-term. If successful, treatment with chloroquine has the potential to be the first evidence based treatment for COVID-19. The drug is affordable and the risk of side effects is low, making it an attractive therapeutic in large proportions of the population on a global scale.

In the current proposal aims to investigate the virological and clinical effects of chloroquine treatment in patients with established SARS-CoV-2 in need of hospital admission. The investigators hypothesize that early treatment with chloroquine in patients with established COVID-19 is safe and will significantly improve prognosis and impact clinical outcomes. More specifically, the investigators hypothesize that early treatment with chloroquine will increase the virological clearance rate of SARS-CoV-2, and lead to more rapid resolve of clinical symptoms, decreased proportion of patients with clinical deterioration and a decreased admission rate to intensive care units and in-hospital mortality

The bits in bold really will be ‘game changers’ if the hypothesis’ are correct 

[fightoffyour]

4 hours ago, Zatman said:

I was in Bergamo 7 weeks ago for a day and it seemed like a beautiful quiet little Italian city. So quickly it has become a complete disaster zone 

It's a really amazing place, been there about 5 times for weekends or layovers, absolutely love it. The news from there is very sad, and I'm sure I'll return one day soon to hopefully contribute a little something back, but it might not be or feel like the same place again.

[Vive_La_Villa]

21 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

 

 

Hang on a minute. I don’t eat halal food. Does that make me a bigot?!?

But on a serious note the amount of racist videos I’ve seen about ‘bloody foreigners’ who aren’t social isolating is a bit unnerving.  

[villa4europe]

full lockdown expected where I am, there's loads of exclusions such as walking your dog, walking to work, the shops, walking with your partner for fresh air etc

but the big thing is they're trying to implement a 25.000 euro fine for socialising!!

[Stevo985]

3 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Hang on a minute. I don’t eat halal food. Does that make me a bigot?!?

No, that's not what he's saying. But you can guarantee bigots don't eat Halal food either for their own stupid reasons. 

It's a bit like the whole not everyone who voted for brexit is racist but everyone who's racist voted for Brexit thing.

 

Not everyone who doesn't eat Halal is racist, but everyone who is racist won't eat Halal

[Vive_La_Villa]

1 minute ago, Stevo985 said:

No, that's not what he's saying. But you can guarantee bigots don't eat Halal food either for their own stupid reasons. 

It's a bit like the whole not everyone who voted for brexit is racist but everyone who's racist voted for Brexit thing.

 

Not everyone who doesn't eat Halal is racist, but everyone who is racist won't eat Halal

I’d argue many bigots are too stupid to even know what halal is. But that’s for another topic. 

[wazzap24]

University of Oxford trial likely to begin in May. 
 

This one is a biggie. They are planning to give Chloroquine to 10k NHS staff and other high risk individuals over a 3 month period 

Quote

The study is a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial that will be conducted in health care settings. After obtaining fully informed consent, the investigator will recruit healthcare workers, or other individuals at significant risk who can be followed reliably for 5 months. 10,000 participants will be recruited and the investigator predict an average of 200 participants per site in 50 sites.

The participant will be randomised to receive either chloroquine or placebo (1:1 randomisation). A loading dose of 10mg base/kg, followed by 150 mg daily (250mg chloroquine phosphate salt) which will be taken for 3 months or until they are diagnosed with COVID-19. Subsequent episodes of symptomatic respiratory illness, including symptomatic COVID-19, clinical outcomes, and asymptomatic infection with the virus causing COVID-19 will be recorded during the follow-up period.

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/record/NCT04303507