sne Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Wes Eden's take on it going forward. Quote 'Pretty darn simple' - Aston Villa owner Wes Edens explains transfer policy AVFC co-owner Wes Edens has conducted an in-depth interview on player recruitment ‘Moneyball’ has become a core transfer policy for a number of British football clubs with Dean Smith’s former employers Brentford pioneers thanks to owner Matthew Benham. And judging by Edens’ comments during a Q&A with Interview.net, Villa’s approach to transfer windows will include much more statistical analysis. “You know I always tell people in our businesses great judgement, overrated, great information, underrated,” says Edens. “Because truly if you have great information most of the decisions are pretty darn simple. Yeah and so I feel like in soccer they’ve got a long way to go in terms of analytics data. “And so I feel like there’s a lot to be caught up to honestly and I believe in the end when you look there’s a number of NBA owners and U.S. sports owners that have done tremendously well (in football). “You have Stan Kroenke at Arsenal, John Henry at Liverpool. Obviously they’ve got tremendous teams though and I’ve talked to both of them and others about their experiences. And I think that there are a lot more similarities than differences but there are some big differences for sure.” Edens, who bought a controlling stake in Villa alongside Nassef Sawiris in 2018, understands talent-spotting still requires a good eye. Villa have revamped their scouting system over the last 12 months with departures and arrivals aplenty. Edens continued: “It’s not merely the data but I do think the foundation of it should be data driven and I think that that’s where we talk about underdogs and what not. “It’s just that I have this very high motor to try to see things for what they are and that’s what the data allows you to do if you just apply it properly. “But then you need good judgement at the end of course. But you know if it’s balanced by this underpinning of data and information you’re just likely to make much better decisions.” https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/sport/football/transfer-news/aston-villa-transfer-news-edens-16322083 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa4europe Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 What money ball signings have we made recently? I'm sure guilbert was in the top 5 in europe for interceptions or something daft before we signed him (and I'm now sure he's in the top 5 for slide tackles) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, villa4europe said: What money ball signings have we made recently? I'm sure guilbert was in the top 5 in europe for interceptions or something daft before we signed him (and I'm now sure he's in the top 5 for slide tackles) Yeah I'm also struggling to see links between "money ball" and our signings. Fully agree on the "the more you know" idea but struggle to see how for example Drinkwater fits into this for us. If we are trying to implement something like this I'd say we are failing at it or at least a long way away from being successful at it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 I understand what Edens is saying and yes information is crucial....but in isolation it can be misleading....it needs back up, i.e watching the player, play. There is nothing like watching a game and making a judgement after seeing a player in real time.....it might take several visits and it's maybe the data that takes a scout to watch said player. You need both. The problem we have had we have got too many wrong, for too long.....it goes without saying, all clubs get it wrong...but the trick is to limit it as much as you can. A top talent spotter is worth their weight in gold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaVilla Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 (edited) 15 minutes ago, TRO said: I understand what Edens is saying and yes information is crucial....but in isolation it can be misleading....it needs back up, i.e watching the player, play. There is nothing like watching a game and making a judgement after seeing a player in real time.....it might take several visits and it's maybe the data that takes a scout to watch said player. You need both. The problem we have had we have got too many wrong, for too long.....it goes without saying, all clubs get it wrong...but the trick is to limit it as much as you can. A top talent spotter is worth their weight in gold. To be fair, I dont think we have got it wrong as often as we think we have, I think it's as much we have catastrophically mismanaged players and player development, as well as having too many "new" players at once to allow them to gel or develop properly. Perfect example is in our relegation season, veretout, gueye, amavi, traore etc., who all went on to be very good players. Same for this season, I honestly think guilbert, targett, engels, nakamba, luiz and wesley all have good futures ahead, hopefully with us, but I think part of the issue is it's too many potential players / players with limited top level experience that has done us in a bit, if we had phased a couple of these players in at once, then another couple next season etc, inthink they would end up wise investments. The trouble is we couldn't integrate steadily this season due to the mass recruitment required, but yeah...my main point is I dont think most of our signings were bad signings, but possibly the vast inexperience / mix and phasing of signings was a really bad idea, I think they hoped might come off with some "smith and terry magic", but doesn't seem to have. Edited April 17, 2020 by MaVilla 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 28 minutes ago, MaVilla said: To be fair, I dont think we have got it wrong as often as we think we have, I think it's as much we have catastrophically mismanaged players and player development, as well as having too many "new" players at once to allow them to gel or develop properly. Perfect example is in our relegation season, veretout, gueye, amavi, traore etc., who all went on to be very good players. Same for this season, I honestly think guilbert, targett, engels, nakamba, luiz and wesley all have good futures ahead, hopefully with us, but I think part of the issue is it's too many potential players / players with limited top level experience that has done us in a bit, if we had phased a couple of these players in at once, then another couple next season etc, inthink they would end up wise investments. The trouble is we couldn't integrate steadily this season due to the mass recruitment required, but yeah...my main point is I dont think most of our signings were bad signings, but possibly the vast inexperience / mix and phasing of signings was a really bad idea, I think they hoped might come off with some "smith and terry magic", but doesn't seem to have. Your point has credence....but i look at Nilis, Laursen, Carew, Bouma,Vlaar all hit the ground running, from foreign clubs. The players you mention that went on to better things, apart from Traore, I am not so sure.....many of those foreign leagues let you play....Traore has done it here, where they don't let you play.....they come here get closed down and nullified and go missing and their confidence drains....the rest is history. The integration is a valid point, but how long do we wait, before we realise, we have waited too long.....we have to see incremental improvement no matter how small to suspect the thing is alive. If you see no leaves on a tree in spring or no shoots on a plant, chances are you never will, its dead. its shoots of progress both individually and as a team, we should be seeing, if its in fact going anywhere. I think we have actually gone in reverse from the start of the season, we should in theory ,have got better.....we are just clinging on to the hope that key injuries have conspired against us and contributed to that decline in form. I understand things take time, but when i see fundamental flaws for months on end going unchecked, i get dubious, it will come right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villan-scott Posted April 17, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted April 17, 2020 10 minutes ago, TRO said: Your point has credence....but i look at Nilis, Laursen, Carew, Bouma,Vlaar all hit the ground running, from foreign clubs. These players you mention were all seasoned pros established at international level when they joined Villa. The Veretout, Gueye etc era were all young and unproven. For players of the calibre you mention - in today’s market they’d cost a fortune. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zatman Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 15 hours ago, TRO said: Your point has credence....but i look at Nilis, Laursen, Carew, Bouma,Vlaar all hit the ground running, from foreign clubs. All them players came from countries that speak good English so its not as hard to settle in, Bouma also took about 18 months to get going here and Vlaar about 6 months. Petrov came from Scotland and he couldnt settle for over a year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted April 18, 2020 Author Share Posted April 18, 2020 (edited) 15 hours ago, villan-scott said: These players you mention were all seasoned pros established at international level when they joined Villa. The Veretout, Gueye etc era were all young and unproven. For players of the calibre you mention - in today’s market they’d cost a fortune. Well, we know where we are going wrong then. our issues are the "here and now "and have been for some time.....The long term needs attention and it looks like the club is addressing that....but we can't get over the hump of "now" I am not so sure you are right about the cost of those players, Laursen had injury issues and we took a gamble, Carew was a swap, Nilis was at the end of his career, Bouma and Vlaar was good buys but in comparison in that era, was not expensive...just prudent business....the people who did those deals deserve credit, is my point. we have just been signing unproven foreign players, based on the judgment of our scouts, managers, Dof's......some may come good, but its taking too long, for the position we are in. You are right in your view ...unproven ,to compound that they have been playing in foreign leagues, where they give you more time and space to play.....so in conclusion, not right for the here and now. In contrast Sheff Utd have gone for more durable types seasoned in the English league and conducive to high work rate and combative style to disrupt the guile of the better teams....and its working. I think its fair to say, we have bought too many of the unprovens at the same time, but surely we need to learn from that......as we already did that a few seasons ago and cost the jobs of the people that did it.....so what have we learnt? My suspicion is Wes Edens wanted it this way and everyone just towed the line. Edited April 18, 2020 by TRO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A'Villan Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 (edited) Apologies, @sne posted above. Edited May 6, 2020 by A'Villan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A'Villan Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 @TRO I don't think there has to be any conflict between your point of view and Edens. Edens is merely suggesting from his perspective data analytics are not as prevalent in association football as they are in other world sports, and that they can be used to benefit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted May 6, 2020 Author Share Posted May 6, 2020 (edited) 17 hours ago, A'Villan said: @TRO I don't think there has to be any conflict between your point of view and Edens. Edens is merely suggesting from his perspective data analytics are not as prevalent in association football as they are in other world sports, and that they can be used to benefit. I think there is a difference in our thinking....even if its subtle. I believe its about building a good team with balance and work rate as a central mantra....not necessarily great players in some positions , but effective players, who help galvanise the 11 The impression I get is Wes wants just 11 good players irrespective if they gel or not and if they don't, have sufficient skill for him to recover his money. Personally, I want a manager to be able to build his team, without interference and be responsible for that team and the players he bought. I understand Dean can't traipse around Europe doing the scouting.....but I believe it should be Deans Call alone as to who comes in. Edited May 6, 2020 by TRO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 Arsenal are apparently letting up to 10 people go from their recruitment team in a cost saving measure. They've signed some duds over the years but they've also managed to find the likes of Reiss Nelson, Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli. We probably could do with sprucing up our scouting department and finding young talents is the way to go for a club like us. Anyone we could poach who and who should we go for if so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted May 30, 2020 Author Share Posted May 30, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, sne said: Arsenal are apparently letting up to 10 people go from their recruitment team in a cost saving measure. They've signed some duds over the years but they've also managed to find the likes of Reiss Nelson, Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli. We probably could do with sprucing up our scouting department and finding young talents is the way to go for a club like us. Anyone we could poach who and who should we go for if so? Villa4life....at least he has villa at heart. We keep saying change the scouts.....unless we give clear indication of what we are looking for it will be a thankless task and the same mistakes repeated. just being devils advocate, maybe we are asking them to look for the wrong things. its easy to blame scouts, but maybe they are just looking for what the club is asking them to look for. However, i do have my doubts. when was the last time we signed a quality CDM?......Idrissa Gueye?, but not many. Edited May 30, 2020 by TRO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted May 30, 2020 Author Share Posted May 30, 2020 (edited) I have reservations about Wes Edens reference to transfers. " Good judgement overrated, good information underrated"....its not that simple. I am not dismissing good information, its crucial......but so is good judgement. The thing is with top people, owners, CEO's.....they like to be in control.....you can control information, you can't control another human's judgment, in the same way. we have all seen games, where players have attracted good stats, but their game as been just ok.....stats for me, should be in support of judgment, not the other way around. Football is a game of talent, managers, players, talent spotters alike......data analysis is an aid, not a substitute...and also has to be interpreted correctly to gain benefit. I would say to Wes...."Good judgement underrated, Good information overrated" The world of football is widely known for clubs who have spotted good talent, Leicester spring to mind and Good scouts are usually central to that success.....during our halcyon days in the late seventies, early eighties, very little analytical data around then, but the rate of successful recruits was remarkable, thanks to Tony Barton. No one wants to be held ransom to a talented artist and owners are top of the list.....but top scouts are worth their weight in gold. Edited May 30, 2020 by TRO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 I'm happy to go with Wes to be honest, we have gone the other way in the past and look at us over the years being poor. I agree a nice balance is key but even myself I've raved about a player or slaughtered a player but in hindsight they actually did ok. I'm not saying Wes is right or you are right but I dont mind Wes' idea....and given his background I assume he's not stupid enough to just follow stats anyway. What he's saying is that stats should be used more as the basis of determining the player, whereas sometimes emotion is the key driver and I point to the amount of times that clubs have brought a player post a world cup or euro's who have looked awesome in those tournaments but in club life are not up to it and become expensive failures. You need top scouts but you also need great data 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zatman Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 1 hour ago, sne said: Arsenal are apparently letting up to 10 people go from their recruitment team in a cost saving measure. They've signed some duds over the years but they've also managed to find the likes of Reiss Nelson, Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli. We probably could do with sprucing up our scouting department and finding young talents is the way to go for a club like us. Anyone we could poach who and who should we go for if so? Last time we raided Arsenal we got Tom Fox, some other PR guy and head of scouting Henrik Almstadt or whatever his name was Hopefully be something better now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villan4Life Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 13 minutes ago, Zatman said: Last time we raided Arsenal we got Tom Fox, some other PR guy and head of scouting Henrik Almstadt or whatever his name was Hopefully be something better now The mention of those names makes me shudder. Three absolute chancers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 Time to put that CV in again Villan4Life! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
screwdriver Posted May 31, 2020 Share Posted May 31, 2020 (edited) This Moneyball was the transfer policy of randy lerner when he decided to stop signing the cheques for O'Neill and Houllier. It's like a bad smell we can't seem to get away from. Villa should be spending big money to get a strong spine of top players, then blood some of the youngsters through I thought moneyball signing is a player no one else would look at due to some defect that you could get cheap and would make an impact. eg. a 5 foot 4" centre half who wins loads of headers. Well when was the last time or the first time this has happened in english football? erm erm erm that great centre half chris perry perhaps? other than that never. it's different to those bs american "sports" or games as I prefer to call them. I think all these directors should back off. Hire a specialist to build a team. sign the checks and let the manager manage. Thanks to edens genius ideas we have:- a) 22m striker with one leg shorter than the other, has the touch of a trampoline and couldnt score in a crack house 2) brazillian defensive midfielder who can't defend or concentrate for 90mins. (classic moneyball who else would buy a brazillain DM?? [unless he's called dunga ]) b)left wing back with acceleration of glacier c)the less said about Mahmoud Ahmed Ibrahim Hassan the better. If I was David Trezeguet I would forbid this joker from tarnishing his great name. These bullshit projects are ok for little clubs like brentford. wolves bought top talent and ripped up the champ. Easily settled in the prem and now have a chance at champions league, you'll see a few young yams starting to come thru like gibbs white and terry taylor. This makes me sick to my jappa. This is what Villa should be doing. Why woudl Villa fans really want to watch the team of patched together from around the world raggy dolls? Villa should be spending big money to get a strong spine of top players, then blood some of the youngsters through Edited May 31, 2020 by screwdriver namechecked dunga 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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