The Hung Like a Donkey General Election December 2019 Thread

[StefanAVFC]

Completely unrelated, but who are those 5% who voted UKIP and Remain!?!?

[sharkyvilla]

3 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

Completely unrelated, but who are those 5% who voted UKIP and Remain!?!?

Probably their MEPs.

[snowychap]

4 hours ago, ml1dch said:

If you feel that my suggestion on the question of the hypothetical scenario which could result in a Conservative majority isn't correct, and you feel that there are other, more likely methods that could result in that hypothetical scenario occurring then I'm more that happy to entertain them...

I must proffer my apologies for my initial criticism of your example (and as per above my questioning of @blandy's belief).

Plugging in the YouGov data for voting intentions for Con/Lab leavers/remainers, I get the following end result:

Lab: 8003 - 9226 (15000)

Con: 9605  - 10216 (12000)

LD: 6799+  (3000)

NF: 2827+ (0)

So, if you were looking at it purely taking in to account changes based on Leave/Remain then your 'easy to see' is, well, easy to see.

Btw, I've worked this out on the averages of Remain v Leave across each of the major two parties which makes this a 55% remain constituency. I wonder whether this reinforces your point about people holding their noses or the wider point that this is going to be too complicated an electoral battlefield to use averages and wider pol;ling data and apply it at constituency level? Possibly both.

Edit: The lower figure is those who say they'll stick with the particular party - the higher figure is the remainder after taking off those who said their votes would go elsewhere from the starting number.

Edited November 5, 2019 by snowychap
Changed the lower Tory figure as I'd missed out the Lab to Con leavers

[HanoiVillan]

23 minutes ago, blandy said:

Yeah. What it does is suggest that the modelling and "advice" they give/gave is/has been "fair" and as accurate as is possible - it's not slanted to favour Labour or Libs etc.

As the data is updated, the predictive element may come up with a diffeent recommendation, but your comment that "don't use these tools" isn't really supported by the analysis which suggests, if you want to find a recommendation, the toll(s) are as fair(unbiased) and accurate as is possible.

My issue is not really that they have been 'slanted'. I don't think we can know whether they have been biased or not, since they haven't released their data or their model, but I can accept that they seem to have used real polling data. Instead, I have three separate issues:

1. They have an incorrect understanding of how 'tactical voting' meets Parliament, as it actually exists. For instance, they recommend voting for the Lib Dems in Don Valley, a constituency which their own MRP figures suggest the Lib Dems will come 4th in. I understand the appeal of the simple logic of 'Caroline Flint is a Brexiteer', but this is a Bad Idea. In order to prevent Johnson's deal, Johnson must be forced out of number 10. Caroline Flint is a Brxiteer, but she doesn't set Labour's Brexit policy; what she would do is provide a seat that helps put Corbyn in number 10, which is the only actual path to blocking Johnson's Brexit deal. This is pretty basic, but they appear to be confused about this (and also inconsistent - they recommend voting for Graham Skinner in his constituency). 
2. They have released their recommendations way too early. Polling is changing all the time, as I keep saying. There are probably a dozen or more seats which should now have a different recommendation, now that Labour are closer to 15 points ahead of the Lib Dems than 5. Websites like these make a big media splash when they are launched, and lots of people will have entered their postcode on the day it launched. How many of them are going to do so again in the week before the vote?
3. They haven't been transparent enough about their data. 

My comment about not using these tools is that I don't believe they will outperform simple rules of thumb like 'don't vote against non-Tory incumbents' or 'vote Labour unless they're clearly miles away'. Points 1 and 2 above, especially, raise the risk that they will be actively unhelpful in their stated aims. 

EDIT: Also, they haven't given any particular indications on when they will 'update the data', per your post. Presumably they will, but we're just taking that on trust at the moment. 

Edited November 5, 2019 by HanoiVillan

[snowychap]

13 minutes ago, blandy said:

I was thinking of the various reported Labour polling, post Ref polling and surveys

Thanks for that but that was already assumed, i.e. how they voted.

What I was after was stuff about how Lab/Tory remainers would be intending to vote (thus what the drift for the other side would be).

From that Prosser twitter thread, there was a link to this:

 

[blandy]

9 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

I understand the appeal of the simple logic of 'Caroline Flint is a Brexiteer', but this is a Bad Idea. In order to prevent Johnson's deal, Johnson must be forced out of number 10. Caroline Flint is a Brxiteer, but she doesn't set Labour's Brexit policy; what she would do is provide a seat that helps put Corbyn in number 10, which is the only actual path to blocking Johnson's Brexit deal. This is pretty basic, but they appear to be confused about this

No,   I completely disagree with your comment here. Flint has rebelled against Labour whip and voted "tory Brexit" repeatedly. SHe might as well be a Tory from that perspective. She'll presumably continue to do so in the event of another Hung Parliament, which is the most likely outcome. So absolutely (if you're a remainer) vote LD and get shot of her tory Brexiting MP.

Respect your point of view on the rest of it, too, though I don't copmpletely share it. If you're someone looking to find out "who should I vote for in my area to best stop brexit, these tools are the best guide available. The analysis of their logic and record as per the twits stands up.

I also think "vote Labour" which is a Brexit party is not the best move to stop Brexit. 

[blandy]

15 minutes ago, snowychap said:

What I was after was stuff about how Lab/Tory remainers would be intending to vote (thus what the drift for the other side would be).

Ah, I missed that subtlety, sorry. The chart shows what I kind of felt - Labour getting a lot of drift away to the LDs (and greens to an extent). Tories getting more to the BNPs. Not a surprise or any skill on my part as this has been the reported suggestion for a while, but it's good to see data.

[HanoiVillan]

9 minutes ago, blandy said:

No,   I completely disagree with your comment here. Flint has rebelled against Labour whip and voted "tory Brexit" repeatedly. SHe might as well be a Tory from that perspective. She'll presumably continue to do so in the event of another Hung Parliament, which is the most likely outcome. So absolutely (if you're a remainer) vote LD and get shot of her tory Brexiting MP.

In order for Caroline Flint to vote for a Tory Brexit, first there has to be a Tory in number 10 proposing a Tory Brexit. The only way to stop there from being a Tory in number 10 proposing a Tory Brexit is for there to be more Labour MP's than Tory ones. That will need to include, in all likelihood, Caroline Flint, who once in Parliament under a Labour government would not have the option of voting for a Tory Brexit anyway. 

Their own numbers demonstrate that a vote for the Lib Dems in this seat will lead to a Tory winning. That makes a Tory Brexit more, not less, likely. 

Tactical voting doesn't work if people preferentially choose to vote their consciences (which may be a reason why tactical voting is doomed to fail, of course, but the whole premise of the site is that it is a thing worth doing). 

[blandy]

1 hour ago, HanoiVillan said:

The only way to stop there from being a Tory in number 10 proposing a Tory Brexit is for there to be more Labour MP's than Tory ones

You might be right, HV, more likely than not, but then again maybe it's not certain. Starting from absolute scratch it's a clean (theoretical) slate.

The likelihood from the past and from current polls is a hung parliament or a Tory win. If there's to be a hung parliament, then who knows the make up - maybe Labour more seats in a minority, maybe tories, maybe SNP +LDs + Plaid might have well over 120 and have serious sway on some issues where Labour doesn't have similar policies.

If someone believes any Brexit makes us worse than now, then Labour's plan to negotiate a Labour Brexit is not a goer at all. Brexity MPs are therefore the first thing to get rid of. If a Tory or Labour Brexity MP gets in makes no difference in that (single, dominant) regard. Flint is an ersatz tory in that respect. Corbyn says he'll negotiate a Brexit. She'll vote for it. Rather a LD than either a tory or her. I guess she'll get in again. Remainers there have no choice, if that's their dominant wish to remain. So they should vote LD and hope that Brexity throbbers split between tory and BNP and LDs come through the middle. Unlikely, but the only step available, really. They could hope part c of Labour's convoluted plan comes to pass, but it's a very long shot - Labour gets in as a majority, then negotiates a new Brexit, then approves of it at their conference and then decides to recommend remain in another referendum, then the referendum results in a remain result.

Better outcome perhaps is hung parliament, Corbyn effs off back to his potting shed, someone sane takes over their leadership and works cross party with the LDs and SNP to revoke or straight to a ref.

[snowychap]

 

[HanoiVillan]

22 minutes ago, blandy said:

If someone believes any Brexit makes us worse than now, then Labour's plan to negotiate a Labour Brexit is not a goer at all. Brexity MPs are therefore the first thing to get rid of. If a Tory or Labour Brexity MP gets in makes no difference in that (single, dominant) regard. Flint is an ersatz tory in that respect. Corbyn says he'll negotiate a Brexit. She'll vote for it. Rather a LD than either a tory or her. I guess she'll get in again. Remainers there have no choice, if that's their dominant wish to remain. So they should vote LD and hope that Brexity throbbers split between tory and BNP and LDs come through the middle. Unlikely, but the only step available, really.

A tpyically thoughtful post blandy, but what you're describing here is a voter voting their conscience. You're right, if this voter thinks Labour and the Tories are the same, and she just prefers the Lib Dems, then she may well choose to vote Lib Dem. The point is that isn't tactical voting, which is what the website is advising people about.

[blandy]

2 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

what you're describing here is a voter voting their conscience

Possibly I am. I was thinking of a (say) normally Labour voter who prefers them to the LDs so votes against her conscience (as I see it) to defeat or at least reject Brexit, even though she may prefer Labour's policies in other areas. I suppose it depends which bit of conscience is to the fore.

[HanoiVillan]

8 minutes ago, blandy said:

Possibly I am. I was thinking of a (say) normally Labour voter who prefers them to the LDs so votes against her conscience (as I see it) to defeat or at least reject Brexit, even though she may prefer Labour's policies in other areas. I suppose it depends which bit of conscience is to the fore.

I think a voter fighting between two different parts of her conscience is pretty much definitively a conscience voter

The target of the website is a different woman, who doesn't love either Labour or the Lib Dems, but will vote for one of them, even with gritted teeth, because she really, really doesn't like the Tories.

Another way to think about this difference is that conscience-voting is 'voting for', ie voting for a party because you like them, or at least you think they're better than the alternatives, whereas tactical-voting is 'voting against', ie voting for a party because it's the best of way of working against the party you hate. I'm not personally telling people to choose one or the other (and I more often than not vote my conscience, to be honest), but this website is specifically targeted to tactical voters.

[Vive_La_Villa]

Surely if you want to remain and that is your main priority. You have to vote labour?

[chrisp65]

Bad timing for Alun Cairns, Minister for West Britain. Weeks before an election he’s facing calls to resign because he pretended not to know his chum was a wrong ‘un.

He personally endorsed a candidate that had previously deliberately binned a rape trial and had been reprimanded by the judge. When challenged, he said he hadn’t known.

If you’re going to lie, delete the e-mail and brief your own team on what the story is.

BBC

Quote

A rape victim has called on a UK cabinet minister to quit after his former aide - a Tory Welsh assembly candidate - "sabotaged" her trial.

Ross England made claims about the victim's sexual history in an April 2018 trial which led to its collapse.

Welsh Secretary Alun Cairns denied knowing about this, but BBC Wales has seen an email sent to him in August 2018......

..... Asked if the minister should resign, the victim - who worked for the Conservative Party - said: "Absolutely. 

 

 

[StefanAVFC]

36 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Surely if you want to remain and that is your main priority. You have to vote labour?

No.

You vote for whoever has the best chance to beat the Tories in your constituency.

Edited November 5, 2019 by StefanAVFC

[ml1dch]

34 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Surely if you want to remain and that is your main priority. You have to vote labour?

What, everyone? In my Lib Dem-held constituency, which has spent most of it's life as a safe Conservative seat, where Labour barely get into double figures, I should vote Labour?

[blandy]

1 hour ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Surely if you want to remain and that is your main priority. You have to vote labour?

Labour is a party led by a leaver, but the rest of it, more or less is remain. Their policy is to negotiate a Brexit, but not a Tory one. They most definitely are not a remain party. SNP, Lib Dem, Green, Plaid, Sinn Fein are all remain.

[Vive_La_Villa]

1 hour ago, StefanAVFC said:

No.

You vote for whoever has the best chance to beat the Tories in your constituency.

 

1 hour ago, ml1dch said:

What, everyone? In my Lib Dem-held constituency, which has spent most of it's life as a safe Conservative seat, where Labour barely get into double figures, I should vote Labour?

Ah, of course. We’ve been through this already.

 I never did understand politics.

edit: I always thought Walsall North was Labour! Just realised Tory’s gained in 2017. Shows how much I know!

Edited November 5, 2019 by Vive_La_Villa

[HanoiVillan]

25 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

edit: I always thought Walsall North was Labour! Just realised Tory’s gained in 2017. Shows how much I know!

The tactical anti-Brexit vote in Walsall North would be Labour. The conscience vote would be whoever you think is best for the country.