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The Hung Like a Donkey General Election December 2019 Thread

Which Cunch of Bunts are you voting for?  

141 members have voted

This poll is closed to new votes
  1. 1. Which Cunch of Bunts Gets Your Hard Fought Cross

    • The Evil Abusers Of The Working Man Dark Blue Team
      27
    • The Hopelessly Divided Unicorn Chasing Red Team
      67
    • The Couldn't Trust Them Even You Wanted To Yellow Team
      25
    • The Demagogue Worshiping Light Blue Corportation
      2
    • The Hippy Drippy Green Team
      12
    • One of the Parties In The Occupied Territories That Hates England
      0
    • I Live In Northern Ireland And My Choice Is Dictated By The Leader Of A Cult
      0
    • I'm Out There And Found Someone Else To Vote For
      8

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  • Poll closed on 12/12/19 at 23:00

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1 minute ago, snowychap said:

Have you given equal consideration to the supposed pledges of the incumbent government?

Yes. Whilst it doesn’t look great I doesn’t seem as far fetched as Labour.  It definitely seems better for me personally. 

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6 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Exactly.  

Also reading through labours pledges they seem ridiculously costly. A lot of it seems unrealistic. I get people voting for Labour to keep us in the EU but I do fear for the state of the country in the coming years with Labour in charge.

This is a narrative every election.

'Labour's plans aren't realistic and they will bankrupt the country'

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10 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Yes. Whilst it doesn’t look great I doesn’t seem as far fetched as Labour.  It definitely seems better for me personally. 

I'm sorry but that doesn't appear to make sense.

What relevance does 'better for you personally' have to how 'costly' one set of pledges is versus another?

Would you care to point out the differences between the sets of pledges for us and quantify these differences in 'costliness', please?

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16 minutes ago, snowychap said:

I'm sorry but that doesn't appear to make sense.

What relevance does 'better for you personally' have to how 'costly' one set of pledges is versus another?

Would you care to point out the differences between the sets of pledges for us and quantify these differences in 'costliness', please?

It’s only the corporation tax increase that for certain would affect me personally.  

I’m just having a general discussion. I haven’t gone in to detail and nor do I claim to have. I’m still far from deciding if I will bother voting and who I will vote for if I do. So I’m not going to do the highlighted part mate.  Sorry.

38 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

This is a narrative every election.

'Labour's plans aren't realistic and they will bankrupt the country'

Well if Labour win the election (which I think they will). Hopefully it turns out to be a false narrative and Labour prove many people wrong. 

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7 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Well if Labour win the election (which I think they will).

You can get 16 to 1 odds on a Labour majority if you fancy a punt. I would be shocked if you were correct.

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My prediction is:

Tories make some gains from their position now - around 305?

Labour lose seats - 250

Lib Dems make big gains - 35/40

SNP roll Scotland - 50 

Hung Parliament, nothing happens again

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I think it's too early to make a prediction at this stage  , Corbyn campaigned well last time out v May who clearly didn't  ...  can Corbyn fool the people twice ? , will Boris charm half the voters whilst impregnating the other half  ,, time will tell  ....

Watching parliament far more than I really should have been doing over the recent brexit stuff , I've been deeply unimpressed with Swinson , i think she might cost the Lib Dems votes in the long run   .. maybe the TV debates will be her "I agree with Jo " moment  , but I'm not seeing it yet .

On the Libs side is in theory they are the only "revoke" party , but even that message has kinda got confused along the way

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I just don't see where the Tories get a majority from.

Leave voters will be swayed by Farage, Remain voters won't vote Tory in as many numbers as they would have pre-ref.

In 2017, the UKIP vote fell 2/3 to Tory 1/3 to Labour.

The Tories need the Tory remain vote to stay as well as keeping Farage at arm's length. 

I don't think both of those things happen.

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45 minutes ago, brommy said:

You can get 16 to 1 odds on a Labour majority if you fancy a punt. I would be shocked if you were correct.

I think it's pretty unlikely as well, but at those odds and with an electorate this volatile that's probably worth putting a tenner on. 

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47 minutes ago, brommy said:

You can get 16 to 1 odds on a Labour majority if you fancy a punt. I would be shocked if you were correct.

Worth a sneaky fiver...

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22 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

I just don't see where the Tories get a majority from.

Leave voters will be swayed by Farage, Remain voters won't vote Tory in as many numbers as they would have pre-ref.

In 2017, the UKIP vote fell 2/3 to Tory 1/3 to Labour.

The Tories need the Tory remain vote to stay as well as keeping Farage at arm's length. 

I don't think both of those things happen.

The risk is obviously how the drop in the Labour vote translates into seats.

It's very easy to see dozens of seats that are say, 15,000 Labour, 12,000 Conservative and 3,000 Lib Dem suddenly becoming 9,000 Labour, 10,000 Conservative, 7,000 Lib Dem, 4,000 NF. Conservatives lose a sixth of their vote share and still gain. A lot of people are going to have to hold their nose, but there has never been a more important election to make sure that people are voting for whatever stops the Conservatives taking the seat.

Hopefully the people actually voting are better at it than the people in charge are at organising it. 

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16 hours ago, Risso said:

I've never met anybody yet who doesn't want to pay less tax...

Even being on tax evasion island you've not met anyone, from let's say the Nordic countries, that thinks their higher taxation is worthwhile for the common good?

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38 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

My prediction is:

Tories make some gains from their position now - around 305?

Labour lose seats - 250

Lib Dems make big gains - 35/40

SNP roll Scotland - 50 

Hung Parliament, nothing happens again

Quite possible.

My concern is that JC’s perceived lack of clarity over brexit, and his subsequent fall from his peak popularity in 2017, will cost Labour more seats than your prediction. In comparison to the above, 20 less seats for Labour, together with Lib Dem just missing out in 10 or so seats, could see a majority for BJ; I assume followed by a January Brexit.

A lot will depend on how big the tactical vote is and if there is a significant difference between the amount of Tory and Labour votes that Brexit party take. I’m currently unconvinced it will be significant enough to be effective in lowering the current Conservative ‘majority’.

If the current polls are to be believed it could be a difficult night. I’ll be driving and listening to the results come in between 4am and 6am on the morning after. Perfect timing for many key results but I’m unsure whether I’ll be shouting ‘Oh for fox sake!’ at too many near miss results or revelling in a shock result.

Proportional representation would avoid the danger of persistent ‘near miss’ results and also mean my vote genuinely counts. Frustratingly for 30 of my 32 voting years, it hasn’t.

 

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32 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

The risk is obviously how the drop in the Labour vote translates into seats.

It's very easy to see dozens of seats that are say, 15,000 Labour, 12,000 Conservative and 3,000 Lib Dem suddenly becoming 9,000 Labour, 10,000 Conservative, 7,000 Lib Dem, 4,000 NF. Conservatives lose a sixth of their vote share and still gain. A lot of people are going to have to hold their nose, but there has never been a more important election to make sure that people are voting for whatever stops the Conservatives taking the seat.

Hopefully the people actually voting are better at it than the people in charge are at organising it. 

Couldn’t put it better myself. As I have no faith in your last sentence, your example figures are an illustration of what I fear will happen.

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1 hour ago, tonyh29 said:

I've been deeply unimpressed with Swinson

Agreed,  I think she and her party have made an error of judgement. 

They had to set themselves apart but it will be a negative drain long term.  The turn the clocks back party,  remain or leave,  you know that sound awfully easy but I doubt it would be.

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The problem with Corbyn is that he has so much murky past shit with organisations which do not reflect well on our society, plus historically he's been anti-EU, then the anti-Semitic stuff.. Really?  Is this the best Labour have got? 

Boris is just a big no no for me.  And it's amazing to me just how many women like him because he's "funny old, harmless Boris".  

Lib Dems gonna Lib Dem 

Greens gonna Greens. 

It's a two horse race, with one horse having already been shot in the face and the other having it's legs chopped off.  You don't really want to back anyone. 

I'm completely lost when it comes to who I want as a Prime Minister/Government - I think they're all awful.  

I'd rather shift the country back left a bit.  Since Farage rose his fugly head 10 years ago, he's dragged us to a place I don't like and the Tories pander to that crowd for their votes.  But by the same token, I don't see how we're gonna afford to re-nationalise everything and implement all of the changes Labour say they will.  And I realise a country budget isn't the same thing as a house budget. 

Something like Blair but without the illegal wars would be ok I guess.. But then I see how PFI is poorly managed and maybe not. 

I don't trust any of them to do anything efficiently. 

Edited by lapal_fan
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The data on that tactical voting site people were looking at is now out-of-date:

A circumstance in which Labour are 4-10 points ahead of the Lib Dems is not the same as one in which they are 10-16 points ahead. Obviously that could change again between now and the election, in either direction. I would strongly recommend not using one of those sites. 

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2 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

The data on that tactical voting site people were looking at is now out-of-date:

A circumstance in which Labour are 4-10 points ahead of the Lib Dems is not the same as one in which they are 10-16 points ahead. Obviously that could change again between now and the election, in either direction. I would strongly recommend not using one of those sites. 

Looks like they got an 8 year old using excel for the first time to make that chart.

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9 minutes ago, Genie said:

Looks like they got an 8 year old using excel for the first time to make that chart.

I think he was pretty open about it being a very quick job, and it's not like it's hard to understand the point. 

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3 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

I’m just having a general discussion. I haven’t gone in to detail and nor do I claim to have.

Indeed you didn't claim to have gone in to detail.

You just opined on how 'costly' the pledges of the Labour party were and said that you'd given equal consideration to the supposed pledges of the Tories.

I mistakenly assumed that this had involved some analysis and comparison of the costs of these pledges by you. I apologise for assuming that you'd actually done that before you made the claims you did.

Suffice to say, I think we should view your opinions on both pledges in this light.

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