The Hung Like a Donkey General Election December 2019 Thread

[hippo]

Fixed Term parliament act  - and redrawing election boundaries will shoot up on Johnsons to do list this morning. - the 40 hospitals - perhaps not so much 

[VillaFaninLondon]

Disappointing election result for me as I really dislike the Tories, but at the same time I feel there is a major identity crisis in the Labour Party and they are in huge trouble (I voted Lib Dem). Clearly they got their Brexit stance wrong at the expense of losing many traditionally-held Labour seats in the Midlands, the North of England, and Wales. Corbyn really needs to go and they need to get in a younger, more charismatic, more centrist leader who is capable of at the very least cutting the Tories' majority at the next election. Some of the commitments in their manifesto (e.g. the billions of pounds payouts to Waspi women) were not credible financially and I feel they need to go back to the centre ground if they are to be successful in future. Unfortunately I don't see that happening with Corbyn, who will try his hardest to put someone from his side of the party in power.

 

Obviously some may argue that the Conservatives will now 'get Brexit done' but the EU is not going to kowtow to Boris's demands and there is still a very major risk that there will be a no deal at the end of 2020 - 11 months is not a long time to negotiate something so complex and incredibly fraught with disagreement. We'll have to see what happens with bated breath. 

[chrisp65]

40 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

 

Without wishing to fight old battles, I guess he’s put Labour down as a Remain Party.

That’s not what I heard. I heard they’d like to start the whole debate again and decide at a future date whether they were remain or not depending on conditions at the time, as negotiated by a neutral leader.

 

 

[HanoiVillan]

8 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Without wishing to fight old battles, I guess he’s put Labour down as a Remain Party.

That’s not what I heard. I heard they’d like to start the whole debate again and decide at a future date whether they were remain or not depending on conditions at the time, as negotiated by a neutral leader.

Kind of clear that voters saw them as 'too Remain' though. 

Edited December 13, 2019 by HanoiVillan

[Davkaus]

Tell me more about how labour are a remain party

[chrisp65]

Then there was the threat that they might nationalise sausages.

[HanoiVillan]

1 minute ago, Davkaus said:

Tell me more about how labour are a remain party

Why bother? The voters of Bishop Auckland, Great Grimsby, Hartlepool, Don Valley, Blyth Valley etc etc etc have already spoken on the issue. 

[hippo]

20 minutes ago, VillaFaninLondon said:

Disappointing election result for me as I really dislike the Tories, but at the same time I feel there is a major identity crisis in the Labour Party and they are in huge trouble (I voted Lib Dem). Clearly they got their Brexit stance wrong at the expense of losing many traditionally-held Labour seats in the Midlands, the North of England, and Wales. Corbyn really needs to go and they need to get in a younger, more charismatic, more centrist leader who is capable of at the very least cutting the Tories' majority at the next election. Some of the commitments in their manifesto (e.g. the billions of pounds payouts to Waspi women) were not credible financially and I feel they need to go back to the centre ground if they are to be successful in future. Unfortunately I don't see that happening with Corbyn, who will try his hardest to put someone from his side of the party in power.

 

Obviously some may argue that the Conservatives will now 'get Brexit done' but the EU is not going to kowtow to Boris's demands and there is still a very major risk that there will be a no deal at the end of 2020 - 11 months is not a long time to negotiate something so complex and incredibly fraught with disagreement. We'll have to see what happens with bated breath. 

Given the Lib dems were openly remain - but got no real uptake on their vote - I think labour being remain wouldn't have helped.

[chrisp65]

6 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Kind of clear that voters saw them as 'too Remain' though. 

I can only speak for myself, I saw them as neither / either / don’t know / wait and see.

Their main website said leave, their welsh broadcasts said remain, their leader said neutral.

Absolute shit show really.

 

[mjmooney]

9 hours ago, OutByEaster? said:

This result is so clear that it not only finishes Corbyn, it finishes an ideology. 

 

[cyrusr]

A few initial thoughts:-

Whilst Tories have made a massive gain in seats, they haven’t actually gained much in number of votes, only approximately 300,000 more votes than in 2017. In share of vote it’s 1% and actually I think that there are 2 key reasons why Tories won: 

1. Brexit - I think everyone is just sick of it and whilst it won’t be the end of it, the concept of more votes has just made everyone so fed up. Since 2015 we’ve had 3 GEs, 1 Referendum, 1 EU parliament election and however many local elections. It’s gone beyond trying to get the best deal/what advantages or disadvantages with each option whether people lied; the country is just sick of it and don’t care anymore. They have picked up these votes in some places but were assisted by Brexit Party as well. It’s interesting to see that Lib Dem grew in both leave and remain areas, probably indicating that they picked up the remain vote.
2. Rejection of Labour & Corbyn - it’s clear that the echoes of the 70s haunted many and couldn’t bring themselves so to vote for Corbyn. That’s not even taken into account the Anti-Semitism and the general demeanour of the party. Whilst I suspect momentum will argue that the “youth” want these policies, they have ignored their historical voters. Given how incompetent the government has been and he has managed to do much worse. It is clear that this is where the votes were lost (and arguably was why the labour Brexit message was lost). 

 

Looking at the results, I really don’t think this is a seal of approval for the Tories, but rather a rejection of Corbyn. Whilst he is suggesting reflection and he will go, they need to get that timetable sorted quickly. Labour will probably be kicking themselves for not forcing the 2nd referendum back in October instead of a GE. All they needed to do is for Corbyn to step aside for the benefit of the country. He and/or labour refused. 

Proportional Representation - it is still something that is necessary, it’s a shame that the Tories were the only party not to promise any reform in this way (can’t blame them to be fair). 

What is interesting is the noises that because it is a large majority, “liberal Boris” will reappear and actually the ERG will be told to f*** off. This will mean perhaps a closer relationship with Europe but not sure. Whilst the new MPs were clearly supportive of Johnson, which Boris though is unclear. The next few days will be very telling anyway, particularly to see who keeps their posts in government (JRM, Raab in particular).

Scotland - well the SNP has scored just as big as Tories have across the country. Expect a lot of noises of a 2nd referendum, their only difficulty will be to get something formal from a “one nation Tory” so it may be somewhat a curious 5 years in Scotland. I just hope it doesn’t end up going the same way as Catalonia.

Jo Swinson . Although it did surprise me how poor they did seats wise (and vote wise). Thought they would have pulled more, but maybe their message was too divisive or people didn’t trust them after the last coalition.   

Northern Ireland - well a majority of nationalists for the first time ever... give the current deal is so disliked by NI, will there be signs of further difficulties in the future. Again, like Scotland, will their be thoughts that they are no longer part of the UK? They are nowhere near the numbers that the SNP has in Scotland, but sadly there is a much bigger history of violence as we all know. Johnson needs to make sure the trade deal with the EU works for NI and not treat it as a separate entity. 

So onto the positives: 

1. Brexit will start leaving the political discussions; 
2. Hopefully Johnson can pull the Tories back to the centre a bit; 
3. Nigel Farage will soon be out of a job; 
4. Brexit Party will go; 
5. Corbyn will go;  
6. Labour will (hopefully) jump back more towards the left-centre ground;
7. No Nigel Dodd or DUP playing a prominent role in parliament; and 
8. No Jo Swinson.

[hippo]

5 minutes ago, cyrusr said:

A few initial thoughts:-

Whilst Tories have made a massive gain in seats, they haven’t actually gained much in number of votes, only approximately 300,000 more votes than in 2017. In share of vote it’s 1% and actually I think that there are 2 key reasons why Tories won: 

1. Brexit - I think everyone is just sick of it and whilst it won’t be the end of it, the concept of more votes has just made everyone so fed up. Since 2015 we’ve had 3 GEs, 1 Referendum, 1 EU parliament election and however many local elections. It’s gone beyond trying to get the best deal/what advantages or disadvantages with each option whether people lied; the country is just sick of it and don’t care anymore. They have picked up these votes in some places but were assisted by Brexit Party as well. It’s interesting to see that Lib Dem grew in both leave and remain areas, probably indicating that they picked up the remain vote.
2. Rejection of Labour & Corbyn - it’s clear that the echoes of the 70s haunted many and couldn’t bring themselves so to vote for Corbyn. That’s not even taken into account the Anti-Semitism and the general demeanour of the party. Whilst I suspect momentum will argue that the “youth” want these policies, they have ignored their historical voters. Given how incompetent the government has been and he has managed to do much worse. It is clear that this is where the votes were lost (and arguably was why the labour Brexit message was lost). 

 

Looking at the results, I really don’t think this is a seal of approval for the Tories, but rather a rejection of Corbyn. Whilst he is suggesting reflection and he will go, they need to get that timetable sorted quickly. Labour will probably be kicking themselves for not forcing the 2nd referendum back in October instead of a GE. All they needed to do is for Corbyn to step aside for the benefit of the country. He and/or labour refused. 

Proportional Representation - it is still something that is necessary, it’s a shame that the Tories were the only party not to promise any reform in this way (can’t blame them to be fair). 

What is interesting is the noises that because it is a large majority, “liberal Boris” will reappear and actually the ERG will be told to f*** off. This will mean perhaps a closer relationship with Europe but not sure. Whilst the new MPs were clearly supportive of Johnson, which Boris though is unclear. The next few days will be very telling anyway, particularly to see who keeps their posts in government (JRM, Raab in particular).

Scotland - well the SNP has scored just as big as Tories have across the country. Expect a lot of noises of a 2nd referendum, their only difficulty will be to get something formal from a “one nation Tory” so it may be somewhat a curious 5 years in Scotland. I just hope it doesn’t end up going the same way as Catalonia.

Jo Swinson . Although it did surprise me how poor they did seats wise (and vote wise). Thought they would have pulled more, but maybe their message was too divisive or people didn’t trust them after the last coalition.   

Northern Ireland - well a majority of nationalists for the first time ever... give the current deal is so disliked by NI, will there be signs of further difficulties in the future. Again, like Scotland, will their be thoughts that they are no longer part of the UK? They are nowhere near the numbers that the SNP has in Scotland, but sadly there is a much bigger history of violence as we all know. Johnson needs to make sure the trade deal with the EU works for NI and not treat it as a separate entity. 

So onto the positives: 

1. Brexit will start leaving the political discussions; 
2. Hopefully Johnson can pull the Tories back to the centre a bit; 
3. Nigel Farage will soon be out of a job; 
4. Brexit Party will go; 
5. Corbyn will go;  
6. Labour will (hopefully) jump back more towards the left-centre ground;
7. No Nigel Dodd or DUP playing a prominent role in parliament; and 
8. No Jo Swinson.

got to disagree on point 1 - we will be talking about Brexit for the next 20 years IMO

[desensitized43]

Just now, hippo said:

got to disagree on point 1 - we will be talking about Brexit for the next 20 years IMO

Yep. Possibly longer.

To paraphrase the great man himself. The battle for Remain is over. I expect the battle for Rejoin is about to begin.

[cyrusr]

3 minutes ago, hippo said:

got to disagree on point 1 - we will be talking about Brexit for the next 20 years IMO

I don’t. Whilst the trade deals will be going on for years, ultimately for the “common people” it is done now so they can forget about it, despite it going to probably cause all of their difficulties. That is probably more what I meant, rather than a blanket “no political discussion”. 

[hippo]

7 minutes ago, desensitized43 said:

Yep. Possibly longer.

To paraphrase the great man himself. The battle for Remain is over. I expect the battle for Rejoin is about to begin.

Who said that ? 

[Jareth]

Well it's been a ridiculous 3 years since the referendum - we now have certainty for the next 5. This is absolutely the end of the UK though, Scotland and NI will drift away and the UK will be pretty much England and Wales. We should go for a new name - I say Wengland. 

[NurembergVillan]

4 minutes ago, Jareth said:

Well it's been a ridiculous 3 years since the referendum - we now have certainty for the next 5. This is absolutely the end of the UK though, Scotland and NI will drift away and the UK will be pretty much England and Wales. We should go for a new name - I say Wengland. 

Scymru.

[tonyh29]

Now I've had a couple of hours sleep,  while i wait for Gina Miller to challenge the election through the courts  , I can reflect on how VT showed yet again how detached it is from the real world when it comes to politics   ... ,I genuinely thought Corbyn was going to sneak a minority yesterday , just goes to show the influence a few social media type sites can have on a given view .

Like a lot of people I'm relieved i've woken up this morning and Corbyn isn't PM but I'm also scratching my head thinking how did Boris pull yet another Homer   .. However , its important he doesn't get a free ride regardless of how big a majority he has  .... the whole Brexit process has shown that more people are prepared to get involved in an active way  , I'm not proposing the people converge on London tomorrow and deface the Churchill statue and trash McDonalds , but , he's going to make a new Queens speech in the coming weeks so maybe the electorate will have more desire to hold the govt accountable on its promises made than it has previously 

Johnson may not have promised free Freddo frogs for all like  Corbyn , but he's still got to deliver , if we still see pictures of children waiting on floors , increases in food banks , homeless people then hopefully people will do more than just share an image on Facebook and whine on the echo chamber that is twitter  ...

 

[supermon]

I dont think we should ever underestimate just how influential Nigel Farage has been since he practically pressured David Cameron to accept a referendum in the first place.  Hearing his interview with Andrew Neil, he couldn't give a toss if Boris gets an alternative Brexit compared to the one he was campaigning for. Frightening that someone who is un-elected has so much influence.  He doesn't give a toss if he hasn't got any seats. His mission is complete.  He'll now be off to America to do the same for Trump and no doubt will be back to form another bullshit party in time for the next general election, knowing full well he wont get any seats but will still maximize his bullshit rhetoric and sound bites.  What a world we live in.

I honestly think, in generations to come, Nigel Farage will be the one who goes down in history as the architect of Brexit, names like Cameron, May and Johnson will be nothing compared to the influence this prick has had  

[trom_borg]

While I dont really have a skin in the game as I dont live in the uk (though I live in europe and we will all be affected), I was following this election with great interest. And as counter intuitive as it might be, I think a conservative win might be best for the left in the longer run.

There are lots of global macro economic signs pointing towards a new recession. Since 2008 no fundamentals have really changed, and with already low interest rates we lack one of the key remedies from previous recessions. Exactly how it'll play out is anyone guess but I think Brexit might work as a catalyst  and there is potentially a real shit storm waiting to hit the fan. Having the likes of Boris and Trump in charge when it happens just might make enough people wake up and see that the right wing economic ideology can and is only really serving the few, while their financial policies are fueling an increasingly detrimental boom and bust cycle.