The Hung Like a Donkey General Election December 2019 Thread

[snowychap]

11 minutes ago, Jareth said:

Brexit - their central plank is 'get Brexit done' - they can't do that in a minority government with absolutely zero allies. 

Erm, so what? They don't get to dictate how many seats they get, i.e. whether they would get a majority or not.

So, if they were to fall just short, any alliance would require them and another party to decide to enter in to it - yes, there is the possibility already brought up earlier in the thread of some sort of Tory/Lib Dem coalition in that situation but I'm stilll quite dubious about that.

Edited December 12, 2019 by snowychap

[ml1dch]

9 minutes ago, Jareth said:

Brexit - their central plank is 'get Brexit done' - they can't do that in a minority government with absolutely zero allies. 

And more to the point, without that single allied MP, a vote of no confidence would be in before his first appearance in the Commons. 

[penguin]

Conservative majority odds have been creeping up all day.

[cyrusr]

3 minutes ago, snowychap said:

Erm, so what? They don't get to dictate how many seats they get, i.e. whether they would get a majority or not.

So, if they were to fall just short, any alliance would require them and another party to decide to enter in to it - yes, there is the possibility already brought up earlier in the thread of some sort of Tory/Lib Dem coalition in that situation but I'm stilll quite dubious about that.

What would be funny is if the Tories get a majority only because Sinn Fein don’t take their seats, but for them then to really screw over Boris and actually sit in HOC. 

[tonyh29]

The pictures I've seen of the queues they all look quite young, so I'm going for Labour minority government  .....

[Jareth]

6 minutes ago, snowychap said:

Erm, so what? They don't get to dictate how many seats they get, i.e. whether they would get a majority or not.

So, if they were to fall just short, any alliance would require them and another party to decide to enter in to it - yes, there is the possibility already brought up earlier in the thread of some sort of Tory/Lib Dem coalition in that situation but I'm stilll quite dubious about that.

If they are just short, they can't really turn to anyone, not even the DUP - they are in an all or nothing situation, it was a gamble. A minority Tory result means that they can pretty much be out voted on a 2nd ref - and make no mistake, in that situation the opposition parties will go for the 2nd ref - with an election result as political justification. BUT - I have a horrid feeling they are going to get a majority of like 3 or something...

[ml1dch]

1 minute ago, snowychap said:

...there is the possibility already brought up earlier in the thread of some sort of Tory/Lib Dem coalition in that situation but I'm stilll quite dubious about that.

Given their central policies are completely at odds with each other, which Tory policies would you see the Lib Dems supporting?

[cyrusr]

1 minute ago, ml1dch said:

Given their central policies are completely at odds with each other, which Tory policies would you see the Lib Dems supporting?

They may see it as an opportunity to get a 2nd ref. Tory deal v remain. I suspect if all other options are off the table (I.e supporting Labour) the Lib Dem’s will support that. I can’t seem them going into full coalition again so it would be con minority government to sort out brexit and then back to square 1 again in the HOC.

[snowychap]

11 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

Given their central policies are completely at odds with each other, which Tory policies would you see the Lib Dems supporting?

I think you've very much misunderstood what I've posted.

I mentioned the possibility already brought up earlier in this thread (not by me but by others) of the Lib Dems being Lib Dems and going along with the Tories in exchange for a confirmatory referendum attached to the WAB.

I expressed my doubt on that at the time and that is, as said above in my post, still where I'm at.

Going back to the 'no confidence without a single allied MP, I'm not so sure we aren't talking a little at cross purposes here, too.

There are alliances and then there are alliances and then there are coalitions.

There is a difference (as seen surely in the last parliament) between having enough people on one's side to pass contentious legislation and having enough people not wanting the outcome of anyone else getting a go for the Tory team to be unable to get the WAB through and yet also not to lose a vote of confidence (DUP and, potentially, Lib Dems).

I'm slightly confused by your picture otherwise as reading your post would seem to suggest that you think majority - 1 (and no coalition) necessarily equals end of Johnson as PM and Tories as government.

Edited December 12, 2019 by snowychap
Spelling and fat fingers

[Wainy316]

13 minutes ago, penguin said:

Conservative majority odds have been creeping up all day.

Up as in longer or shorter?

[Sid4ever]

[penguin]

4 minutes ago, Wainy316 said:

Up as in longer or shorter?

Longer. 

[sharkyvilla]

1 hour ago, penguin said:

I don't think I can bring myself to vote neither party come close to representing me. Plus I live in the safest conservative seat known to man.

 

 

 

Mine has been Tory since 1880.  Bring the Whigs back I say.

[Designer1]

I just put a cross in the box but Wesley ran in and headed it over the bar.

[ml1dch]

2 minutes ago, snowychap said:

I'm slightly confused by your picture otherwise as reading your post would seem to suggest that you think majority - 1 (and no coalition) equals end of Johnson as PM and Tories as government.

In this particular circumstance, I think it would be.

In a working Parliament where "everyone but Johnson" is >1, a vote of no confidence goes in - which party or MP is the vote(s) that keep him in power?

It's plausibly the DUP, but even they seem to hate him now.

[cyrusr]

5 minutes ago, Designer1 said:

I just put a cross in the box but Wesley ran in and headed it over the bar.

Don’t mention Wesley, that’ll only make people more argumentative   

[Sam-AVFC]

25 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

The pictures I've seen of the queues they all look quite young, so I'm going for Labour minority government  .....

I do wonder if most of those votes will be concentrated in cities and end up not making a big difference though. Either way it will definitely be an interesting night.

[snowychap]

5 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

In this particular circumstance, I think it would be.

In a working Parliament where "everyone but Johnson" is >1, a vote of no confidence goes in - which party or MP is the vote(s) that keep him in power?

It's plausibly the DUP, but even they seem to hate him now.

They may hate him but I doubt they're about to let Corbyn get even the whiff of a chance and, as per my post above, one couldn't be sure about the Lib Dems.

[Risso]

4 minutes ago, snowychap said:

They may hate him but I doubt they're about to let Corbyn get even the whiff of a chance and, as per my post above, one couldn't be sure about the Lib Dems.

You're right Snowy.  There's no way the DUP would support Johnson's current Brexit bill, but there's even less chance they'd let Corbyn and McDonnell in by siding with them in a vote of no confidence/minority government.

[hippo]

Does VT have an election ITK ?