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The Hung Like a Donkey General Election December 2019 Thread


Jareth

Which Cunch of Bunts are you voting for?  

141 members have voted

  1. 1. Which Cunch of Bunts Gets Your Hard Fought Cross

    • The Evil Abusers Of The Working Man Dark Blue Team
      27
    • The Hopelessly Divided Unicorn Chasing Red Team
      67
    • The Couldn't Trust Them Even You Wanted To Yellow Team
      25
    • The Demagogue Worshiping Light Blue Corportation
      2
    • The Hippy Drippy Green Team
      12
    • One of the Parties In The Occupied Territories That Hates England
      0
    • I Live In Northern Ireland And My Choice Is Dictated By The Leader Of A Cult
      0
    • I'm Out There And Found Someone Else To Vote For
      8

This poll is closed to new votes

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  • Poll closed on 12/12/19 at 23:00

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52 minutes ago, bickster said:

Actually this quite frankly worries me. Speaking as someone who rents and has a rather good relationship with my landlord (who only owns this house - it was his mothers which he was paying a second mortgage on before she went into a home). If he decides to sell, I'm homeless

So whilst it sounds great on the surface it might completely f*** me up!

I'm actually in the same situation (rent, but have a good relationship with my landlord). However, Labour's policy wouldn't have the effects they're catastrophising about, especially on situations like yours and mine (if neither party has any problem with the current arrangements, there won't need to be any changes). It's just funny seeing them shit bricks on behalf of landlords, not necessarily the most relatable bunch.

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6 minutes ago, Wainy316 said:

What was the predicted majority two days before in 2017?  It was similar levels wasn’t it?

The same yougov poll predicted a hung parliament in 2017.

I don't know if they have factored in the large amount of new voter registrations, most of them young, but I don't think this poll will be far out. My heart says a hung parliament, my head says a 20+ seat Tory majority.

Edited by markavfc40
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7 minutes ago, Wainy316 said:

What was the predicted majority two days before in 2017?  It was similar levels wasn’t it?

I think the YouGov MRP two days before 2017 was the one that predicted a hung parliament.

Edit: Mark beat me to it.

Edited by snowychap
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1 minute ago, markavfc40 said:

The same yougov poll predicted a hung parliament in 2017.

I don't know if they have factored in the large amount of new voter registrations, most of them young, but I don't think this poll will be far out. My heart says a hung parliament, my head says a 20+  seat Tory majority.

We need some sort of ‘sweep’ to try and make it interesting.

 

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The MRP did well last time, but of course like any projection it's just as good as the data inputted, so there's still the chance that there's a systematic polling error. However, that's pretty unlikely, and of course it could be in the opposite direction as well.

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Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab UKIP Lib Dem SNP Green Others Lead
           
8 June General Election results (GB only) [2] 43.5% 41.0% 1.9% 7.6% 3.1% 1.7% 1.2% 2.5%
6–7 Jun Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,291 44% 36% 4% 7% 5% 2% 2% 8%
6–7 Jun BMG/The Herald 1,199 46% 33% 5% 8% 4% 3% 2% 13%
6–7 Jun Survation 2,798 41% 40% 2% 8% 4% 2% 2% 1%
6–7 Jun ICM/The Guardian 1,532 46% 34% 5% 7% 5% 2% 1% 12%
5–7 Jun YouGov/The Times 2,130 42% 35% 5% 10% 5%[a] 2% 1% 7%
5–7 Jun ComRes/Independent 2,051 44% 34% 5% 9% 4% 2% 1% 10%
4–7 Jun Qriously/Wired 2,213 39% 41% 4% 6% 3% 7% 2%
2–7 Jun Panelbase 3,018 44% 36% 5% 7% 4% 2% 2% 8%
1–7 Jun Kantar Public 2,159 43% 38% 4% 7% 4% 2% 2% 5%
4–6 Jun SurveyMonkey/The Sun 11,000 42% 38% 4% 6% 3% 2% 5% 4%
4–6 Jun Opinium 3,002 43% 36% 5% 8% 5% 2% 1% 7%
2–4 Jun ICM/The Guardian 2,000 45% 34% 5% 8% 4% 3% 1% 11%
3 Jun London terror attack, national campaigning partially suspended on 4 June[3]
3 Jun Survation/Mail on Sunday 1,049 40% 39% 5% 8% 4% 5% 1%
2–3 Jun Survation/Good Morning Britain 1,103 41% 40% 3% 6% 4% 1% 4% 1%
1–2 Jun YouGov/Sunday Times 1,989 42% 38% 4% 9% 4%[a] 2% 0% 4%
31 May–2 Jun ICM/The Sun on Sunday 2,051 45% 34% 5% 9% 4% 3% 1% 11%
31 May–2 Jun ComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday 2,038 47% 35% 4% 8% 3% 1% 1% 12%
31 May–1 Jun Norstat 1,013 39% 35% 6% 8% * 3% 9% 4%
31 May–1 Jun ORB/Telegraph 1,656 45% 36% 4% 8% 7% 9%
30 May–1 Jun Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,046 45% 40% 2% 7% 3%[a] 2% 1% 5%
26 May–1 Jun Panelbase 1,224 44% 36% 5% 7% 5% 2% 1% 8%
30–31 May Opinium/Observer 2,006 43% 37% 5% 6% 5% 2% 1% 6%
30–31 May YouGov/The Times 1,875 42% 39% 4% 7% 4%[a] 2% 1% 3%
Pre-31 May SurveyMonkey/The Sun 19,000 44% 38% 4% 6% 7% 6%
25–30 May Kantar Public 1,199 43% 33% 4% 11% 4% 3% 1% 10%
26–29 May ICM/The Guardian 2,002 45% 33% 5% 8% 4% 3% 2% 12%
26–29 May Qriously 1,153 43% 39% 5% 6% 3% 2% 3% 4%
26–27 May Survation/Good Morning Britain 1,009 43% 37% 4% 8% 2% 1% 4% 6%
25–26 May YouGov/Sunday Times 2,003 43% 36% 4% 9% 4%[a] 2% 1% 7%
24–26 May ICM/The Sun on Sunday 2,044 46% 32% 5% 8% 4% 2% 1% 14%
24–26 May ComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday 2,024 46% 34% 5% 8% 4% 2% 1% 12%
24–25 May ORB/Sunday Telegraph 1,556 44% 38% 5% 7% 4% 2% 6%
24–25 May SurveyMonkey/The Sun 6,000 44% 36% 4% 6% 9% 8%
24–25 May YouGov/The Times 2,052 43% 38% 4% 10% 5%[a] 1% 0% 5%
23–24 May Opinium/Observer 2,002 45% 35% 5% 7% 5% 2% 1% 10%
19–23 May Panelbase/The Sunday Times 1,019 48% 33% 4% 7% 5% 2% 1% 15%
22 May Manchester Arena bombing, national campaigning suspended 23–24 May
18–22 May Kantar Public 1,200 42% 34% 4% 9% 4% 4% 2% 8%
19–21 May ICM/The Guardian 2,004 47% 33% 4% 9% 4% 2% 1% 14%
19–20 May Survation/Good Morning Britain 1,034 43% 34% 4% 8% 3% 2% 5% 9%
19–20 May Survation/Mail on Sunday 1,017 46% 34% 3% 8% 4% 1% 3% 12%
18–19 May YouGov/Sunday Times 1,925 44% 35% 3% 9% 5%[a] 2% 1% 9%
17–18 May ORB/Sunday Telegraph 1,551 46% 34% 7% 7% 4% 2% 12%
16–17 May Opinium/Observer 2,003 46% 33% 5% 8% 5% 2% 1% 13%
16–17 May YouGov/The Times 1,861 45% 32% 6% 8% 5% 2% 1% 13%
15–17 May Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,053 49% 34% 2% 7% 6% 3% * 15%
12–15 May Panelbase 1,026 47% 33% 5% 7% 5% 3% * 14%
11–15 May Kantar Public 1,201 47% 29% 6% 8% 4% 4% 2% 18%
12–14 May ICM/The Guardian 2,030 48% 28% 6% 10% 4% 3% 1% 20%
3–14 May GfK/Business Insider 1,952 48% 28% 5% 7% 6% 3% 2% 20%
12–13 May Survation/Good Morning Britain 1,016 48% 30% 4% 8% 4% 2% 4% 18%
11–12 May YouGov/Sunday Times 1,630 49% 31% 3% 9% 5%[a] 2% 1% 18%
10–12 May ComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday 2,007 48% 30% 5% 10% 4% 3% 1% 18%
9–12 May Opinium/Observer 2,003 47% 32% 5% 8% 5% 2% 1% 15%
10–11 May ORB/Sunday Telegraph 1,508 46% 32% 6% 8% 5% 4% 14%
9–10 May YouGov/The Times 1,651 46% 30% 5% 11% 6%[a] 2% 1% 16%
5–9 May Panelbase 1,027 48% 31% 5% 8% 4% 2% 2% 17%
4–8 May Kantar Public 1,201 44% 28% 8% 11% 4% 5% 1% 16%
5–7 May ICM/The Guardian 2,038 49% 27% 6% 9% 4% 3% 1% 22%
5–6 May Survation/Good Morning Britain 1,005 47% 30% 4% 7% 5% 3% 3% 17%
4–5 May YouGov/Sunday Times 1,644 47% 28% 6% 11% 5%[a] 2% 1% 19%
3–5 May ICM/Sun on Sunday 2,020 46% 28% 8% 10% 4% 4% * 18%
4 May United Kingdom local and mayoral elections
3–4 May ORB/Sunday Telegraph 1,550 46% 31% 8% 9% 3% 3% 15%
2–3 May Opinium/Observer 2,005 46% 30% 7% 9% 4% 2% 1% 16%
2–3 May YouGov/The Times 2,066 48% 29% 5% 10% 5%[a] 2% 1% 19%
28 Apr–2 May Panelbase 1,034 47% 30% 5% 10% 5% 2% 1% 17%
28 Apr–2 May ICM/The Guardian 1,970 47% 28% 8% 8% 3% 4% 1% 19%
28 Apr–1 May Qriously 1,240 44% 28% 8% 9% 3% 4% 4% 15%
27 Apr–2 May Kantar Public 1,205 48% 24% 7% 11% 4% 4% 2% 24%
27–28 Apr YouGov/Sunday Times 1,612 44% 31% 6% 11% 4%[a] 2% 2% 13%
26–28 Apr ICM/Sun on Sunday 2,012 47% 28% 8% 9% 4% 4% * 19%
25–28 Apr Opinium/Observer 2,007 47% 30% 7% 8% 5% 3% 1% 17%
26–27 Apr ORB/Sunday Telegraph 2,093 42% 31% 8% 10% 4% 4% 11%
25–26 Apr YouGov/The Times 1,590 45% 29% 7% 10% 5%[a] 3% 1% 16%
21–25 Apr Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard[permanent dead link] 1,004 49% 26% 4% 13% 4% 1% 4% 23%
21–24 Apr ICM/The Guardian 2,024 48% 27% 7% 10% 4% 3% 1% 21%
20–24 Apr Panelbase 1,026 49% 27% 5% 10% 5% 3% 1% 22%
20–24 Apr Kantar Public 1,196 46% 24% 8% 11% 5% 4% 1% 22%
Pre-23 Apr Norstat/Sunday Express 1,036 42% 26% 8% 10% * 6% 8% 16%
21–22 Apr Survation/Mail on Sunday 2,072 40% 29% 11% 11% 4% 2% 3% 11%
20–21 Apr YouGov/Sunday Times 1,590 48% 25% 5% 12% 6%[a] 3% 1% 23%
19–21 Apr ICM/ITV 2,027 48% 26% 8% 10% 4% 3% 2% 22%
19–20 Apr ORB/Daily Telegraph 1,860 44% 29% 10% 8% 5% 4% 15%
19–20 Apr ComRes/Sunday Mirror 2,074 50% 25% 7% 11% 4% 3% 1% 25%
19–20 Apr Opinium/Observer 2,003 45% 26% 9% 11% 4% 3% 1% 19%
2–20 Apr YouGov 12,746 44% 25% 9% 12% 6%[a] 3% 1% 19%
18–19 Apr YouGov/The Times 1,727 48% 24% 7% 12% 6%[a] 2% 1% 24%
18 Apr ICM/The Guardian 1,000 46% 25% 8% 11% 4% 4% 1% 21%
18 Apr Prime Minister Theresa May announces her intention to seek a general election to be held on 8 June 2017

 

2017 polling data on Wiki

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Two points about this. Firstly, since @StefanAVFC and I were debating this earlier, this is pretty persuasive evidence that if anyone reading this happens to also be one of the presumably tiny number of wavering tactical voters in Kensington, then vote Labour.

However, more importantly than that, what these polls show is that there's wide variation in constituency predictions. MRP might be right, but it might not, and there's still a lot to play for.

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I think a majority of about 20 sounds more realistic than the 60 before.  There were a lot of seats they predicted would have been won by less than 1% which seemed unlikely.  The difficulty is always trying to work out which way the undecideds will vote and I assume that there are fewer of them now.

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Just now, sharkyvilla said:

and I assume that there are fewer of them now.

I'm not so sure. I've normally made my mind up completely by now. I think a lot of the votes are soft rather than firm, people will have nagging doubts either way and one last push in any direction could change them. Obviously the hardcore Brexiteers and Labourers won't move but the floaters are very soft imo, hence why the gap has been narrowing for weeks. There will be people who won't make up their mind until they get in the polling station

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I know it's The Mirror, but this is amazing.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-boris-johnson-hides-fridge-21070803

Quote

 

The PM replies to say "I'll be with you in a second" and walks off, before Piers exclaims "he's gone into the fridge".

 

A camera crew then follows the PM as he can be seen disappearing behind stacks of milk crates and into the large fridge at the delivery depot.

 

Surprised he didn't try to put the camera crew in his pocket.

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