The Hung Like a Donkey General Election December 2019 Thread

[snowychap]

 

[StefanAVFC]

Yep, Farage standing candidates in all seats is a horrendously bad piece of news for BJ.

[Vive_La_Villa]

So remainers don’t want Johnson’s deal as they don’t want to leave the EU and Leavers don’t want Johnson’s deal as it’s too soft.

Does anybody want the deal?

[Dodgyknees]

3 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

So remainers don’t want Johnson’s deal as they don’t want to leave the EU and Leavers don’t want Johnson’s deal as it’s too soft.

Does anybody want the deal?

James Cleverly

[blandy]

2 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

My broader point is that this opportunism should be priced-in when we're considering how likely it is that the Lib Dems will take actions that will annoy, or be seen as a betrayal by, their new voters. For instance, the discussion from the last couple of pages was whether Swinson might form an alliance (if presumably not a coalition) with the Tories, to pass the Withdrawal Agreement as long as a second referendum is attached. It's not hard to see how that would appeal to the increasingly-large proportion of their parliamentary party who are refugees from the Conservatives, that have nevertheless voted on more than one occasion for a Brexit deal to be passed. 

I think you're right, and I think it applies equally across all the parties who are likely to have a chance of power or influence. People may vote Tory because they expect Britain will be better after Brexit and then find the opposite, or think that the SNP will keep them (Scotland) in europe, or allow them to rejoin, and it won't. Or they might vote for Labour to stop Brexit and then find that they too are let down, or or to implement a "jobs first" Brexit and ...ditto.

I guess most people will hold their noses when voting. Lib Dems are undoubtedly a pro european party and that will be enough to overcome doubts (remain) people might have about...

Labour are unashamedly left wing and that will be enough to overcome doubts people might have about Corbyn's competence or about anti-semitism...because" policies" 

Tories are words removed, but people might vote for them because they hate the forins. Sorry, that's the BXP, the provisional Tories, my mistake.

[StefanAVFC]

6 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

So remainers don’t want Johnson’s deal as they don’t want to leave the EU and Leavers don’t want Johnson’s deal as it’s too soft.

Does anybody want the deal?

Tories, solely for political reasons.

Your 2nd bit and the fact there are 2 major parties with totally different Brexit plans in their manifesto, kinda blows a big hole in 'we knew what we were voting for' doesn't it  

[Vive_La_Villa]

Just now, StefanAVFC said:

Tories, solely for political reasons.

Your 2nd bit and the fact there are 2 major parties with totally different Brexit plans in their manifesto, kinda blows a big hole in 'we knew what we were voting for' doesn't it  

Can’t argue with that. The whole thing stinks! 

[cyrusr]

6 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

Tories, solely for political reasons.

Your 2nd bit and the fact there are 2 major parties with totally different Brexit plans in their manifesto, kinda blows a big hole in 'we knew what we were voting for' doesn't it  

3 versions if you include the Brexit Party's plan as well. 

Those that still want to leave will split their vote between Tories/Labour/Brexit Party (depending on what they want). As has been said, it is a clear indicator that actually, there are many different versions to Brexit. What Labour have struggled with to date is what their version would be (and one that the EU would agree with) and I think they will still struggle with "leave voters" because of this. Only those that are core labour will likely vote for them, therefore I can see the vote being split predominately between Tories/Brexit Party. Whilst Tories have a big lead, I suspect that Brexit Party will start damaging that lead, particularly if the deal isn't struck between them. 

Those that still want to remain will split their vote between Labour/Lib Dem/Greens/SNP/PC, who, bar Labour appear to be on the same page. With the talks of alliances etc between Lib Dem/Greens/PC will likely assist and SNP likely to have Scotland, it may be that the "remain" parties are more cohesive in their tactics and plans. 

The only thing that seems to a certainty is that votes will be taken from Tories/Labour. Where they go is another matter, but I suspect that we will end up with another hung parliament which will not solve anything. 

A 2nd Referendum would genuinely help resolve the form of Brexit the country actually wants and would enable the country to move forward. That's not "democratic" though. 

[PompeyVillan]

58 minutes ago, snowychap said:

Why would you believe this to be the case?

I'm sorry but this is rather meaningless.

I don't think that anybody disputes that parties 'take' votes off other parties but the question to be addressed is will they do it in the same way or in the same numbers?

In case you didn't read the subsequent tweets to the one I posted (to which you responded):

 

Thanks Snowy, I've found some interesting analysts through the account you've quoted. 

[ml1dch]

1 hour ago, StefanAVFC said:

Not now.

In 2017 the UKIP vote (previously Labour) collapsed and mostly went to the Tories.

There's also a lot of Moderate Tories who despise the far right swing of the modern Tory party who will vote Lib Dem.

It will be interesting.

As (I think) I said when the election was being rumoured, 2017 was the Conservatives highest share of the vote in a third of a century. 

They had the traditional Conservatives, near-enough the whole of the 2015 UKIP vote and the people for whom their leave feelings trumped their Labour feelings. 

Who are this untapped resource that didn't vote Conservative in 2017 but will in large enough quantities to turn a hung Parliament into a majority?

[StefanAVFC]

3 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

Who are this untapped resource that didn't vote Conservative in 2017 but will in large enough quantities to turn a hung Parliament into a majority?

Exactly.

And huge numbers of 18-25 year olds are registering to vote. Who are more likely to vote Lib Dem or Labour.

If the left get their act together and vote tactically and the BXP campaign all over the UK, this could be awful for BJ.

[AshVilla]

4 hours ago, StefanAVFC said:

If the Conservatives had voted for the Brexit deal, then we'd be gone by now.

It was an attempt at satire on my part but I see your point

[StefanAVFC]

5 minutes ago, AshVilla said:

It was an attempt at satire on my part but I see your point

I'm glad because it's a fact.

[LondonLax]

1 hour ago, Mozzavfc said:

Remaining is great for Farage 

He gets to continue to keep his cushy MEP job and get his Russian money

He wants to be a real MP, not just an MEP. Boris getting a deal almost passed would be a disaster for him, he’d become irrelevant. 

[snowychap]

47 minutes ago, PompeyVillan said:

Thanks Snowy, I've found some interesting analysts through the account you've quoted. 

No problem.

I'm sorry that my response was rather snappy - lack of sleep.

[Rodders]

1 hour ago, StefanAVFC said:

Exactly.

And huge numbers of 18-25 year olds are registering to vote. Who are more likely to vote Lib Dem or Labour.

If the left get their act together and vote tactically and the BXP campaign all over the UK, this could be awful for BJ.

Ingrained pessimism and depression regarding the general population can sense nothing other than a resounding win for the tories. people are selfish arseholes who buy into risible propaganda with frightening ease.  Look at the polls, if the tories don't get a 20 seat plus majority I will be very surprised.

[HanoiVillan]

1 hour ago, ml1dch said:

As (I think) I said when the election was being rumoured, 2017 was the Conservatives highest share of the vote in a third of a century. 

They had the traditional Conservatives, near-enough the whole of the 2015 UKIP vote and the people for whom their leave feelings trumped their Labour feelings. 

Who are this untapped resource that didn't vote Conservative in 2017 but will in large enough quantities to turn a hung Parliament into a majority?

The proportion of vote translates poorly into the proportion of seats, and if the opposition is more evenly divided (as it currently appears to be) or the distribution of the vote is more effective, the Tories could win a large majority on a significantly smaller share of the vote than they gained in 2017. 

[StefanAVFC]

24 minutes ago, Rodders said:

 if the tories don't get a 20 seat plus majority I will be very surprised.

The polls when May called it in 2017 were much, much worse. 

[fightoffyour]

3 hours ago, Mozzavfc said:

Remaining is great for Farage 

He gets to continue to keep his cushy MEP job and get his Russian money

Any chance he actually wants us to remain? For longevity of his own career and media presence? I imagine he probably wants to be an MP too for that reason, but that’s pretty fanciful.

[sharkyvilla]

45 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

The polls when May called it in 2017 were much, much worse. 

I can't see Johnson running such a shit campaign as May's.  Call the election, pick a manifesto with things like the dementia tax that attack your key voters, then go into hiding  I can't believe how many times I've switched on the TV and there has been one of May's 'advisors' giving their opinion.  How have they even managed to come out of hiding?

I suspect the Tories will go with offering their withdrawal deal as a guarantee of Brexit happening, then parking their bus in parts of Labour's territory with public spending increases but without the whole nationalisation thing and it'll be enough.