The Hung Like a Donkey General Election December 2019 Thread

[tomav84]

36 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

In the nicest possible way, I think you’re kidding yourself.

Years after the first one, we’ve picked it apart daily on here and Newsnight has discussed it relentlessly.

But for Stoke Market Man, there’s been no review, no chance to study where this is heading, just a lack of getting it done. I’ve eavesdropped a conversation in the last week where someone wasn’t sure if Boris Johnson was ‘the conservative’. People adamant that in a referendum they will vote tory.  I think a re run of the referendum would be just as random second time around. People voting that don’t realise Ireland is a different country, people that didn’t realise the EU means Europe. People who presume Brexit means we’ll re open the coal mines to fire up the furnaces to make Morris Oxfords. People that think VW are shitting themselves that we might not get a great deal. 

Feedback on R4 yesterday evening interviewed a politics undergrad. They were asked where they get their news from, they said Twitter Trending.

The vast number of people that know every detail about the latest Jungle contestants, but don’t know whether Ireland is a different country and hang on to the fact we won the war and the empire wants us back so they can finally buy our jam again. 

Believe it or not, I’m trying not to let it get to me!

 

 

it should never have gone to the people for these very reasons. those that say "must leave the EU otherwise we open the door to terrorists" despite the 2 most significant terror attacks in recent history (Westminster and Manchester) being performed by British men. these are the totally uneducated individuals that vote on such major impacts to the country. it's ridiculous. at least an election is every 4 years so there's regular chances to rectify a decision if it turns out to be detrimental for the country.

[Sam-AVFC]

54 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

This diamond we have has another flaw,  "knew what deal now" relies on the voting population to seek,  digest,  understand & vote rationally on this (100% correct not fake news) they receive about the 2nd referendum.  This with the last referendum result fresh in our minds and the lunacy of the Scottish to try and go it alone as voting patterns go,  never mind the Euro elections.  You might actually be ******d.  Sorry about that. 

This is fair. I was personally thinking of it more in the sense of having a "you can't complain about the result as we voted with all possible information" closure as opposed to expecting people to actually inform themselves!

[HanoiVillan]

46 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

In the nicest possible way, I think you’re kidding yourself.

Years after the first one, we’ve picked it apart daily on here and Newsnight has discussed it relentlessly.

But for Stoke Market Man, there’s been no review, no chance to study where this is heading, just a lack of getting it done. I’ve eavesdropped a conversation in the last week where someone wasn’t sure if Boris Johnson was ‘the conservative’. People adamant that in a referendum they will vote tory.  I think a re run of the referendum would be just as random second time around. People voting that don’t realise Ireland is a different country, people that didn’t realise the EU means Europe. People who presume Brexit means we’ll re open the coal mines to fire up the furnaces to make Morris Oxfords. People that think VW are shitting themselves that we might not get a great deal. 

Feedback on R4 yesterday evening interviewed a politics undergrad. They were asked where they get their news from, they said Twitter Trending.

The vast number of people that know every detail about the latest Jungle contestants, but don’t know whether Ireland is a different country and hang on to the fact we won the war and the empire wants us back so they can finally buy our jam again. 

Believe it or not, I’m trying not to let it get to me!

There have always been low-information voters, in elections as well as referendums. There is no way to have universal suffrage and have everybody be an expert. However, elections and referendums do have a way of focusing people on at least some core messages. The biggest problem with 2016 is not that '£350m per week for the NHS' was a lie, but that the Remain side couldn't muster up a more powerful counter-argument. 

You are quite possibly right to be pessimistic about both the conduct and outcome of a second referendum, especially one fought between Boris' WA and Remain, but again, the reason the Remain side should be fearful is after three years of chaos barely anyone has shifted. We still aren't anywhere close to winning the argument, and it's a cop-out to say that's just because - or even mainly because - of the electorate's ignorance. 

[tomav84]

1 minute ago, HanoiVillan said:

There have always been low-information voters, in elections as well as referendums. There is no way to have universal suffrage and have everybody be an expert. However, elections and referendums do have a way of focusing people on at least some core messages. The biggest problem with 2016 is not that '£350m per week for the NHS' was a lie, but that the Remain side couldn't muster up a more powerful counter-argument. 

You are quite possibly right to be pessimistic about both the conduct and outcome of a second referendum, especially one fought between Boris' WA and Remain, but again, the reason the Remain side should be fearful is after three years of chaos barely anyone has shifted. We still aren't anywhere close to winning the argument, and it's a cop-out to say that's just because - or even mainly because - of the electorate's ignorance. 

they tried, with the likes of osbourne and some banker chiefs saying how 1000s of banking jobs will go, but that unwittingly probably gave the leave side a few more votes as people love to stick it to the bankers

[bobzy]

21 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

There have always been low-information voters, in elections as well as referendums. There is no way to have universal suffrage and have everybody be an expert. However, elections and referendums do have a way of focusing people on at least some core messages. The biggest problem with 2016 is not that '£350m per week for the NHS' was a lie, but that the Remain side couldn't muster up a more powerful counter-argument. 

You are quite possibly right to be pessimistic about both the conduct and outcome of a second referendum, especially one fought between Boris' WA and Remain, but again, the reason the Remain side should be fearful is after three years of chaos barely anyone has shifted. We still aren't anywhere close to winning the argument, and it's a cop-out to say that's just because - or even mainly because - of the electorate's ignorance. 

I think it is mainly because of ignorance, though.

One of the things that gets overlooked (I think) when we discuss Brexit is the amount of people who like being right and dislike injustice.  "Leave won, let's just get on with that" is such a ridiculously popular viewpoint that I actually think, despite the amount of lies, chaos and downright farce that we've seen during/since the referendum , a Leave vote would be stronger this time round.  People who voted Leave wouldn't shift in masses but many who didn't vote or voted Remain would now go for Leave.  That's the level of **** that we are because of the ignorance of the public.  Additionally, two of my good friends who voted Remain have said they'd vote Leave if the chance came around again because we've wasted so much time and money on it that we might as well see it through.  They're sensible, intelligent and not massively into politics - I imagine that sort of view covers a lot of the population.

This is all the same reason that people will vote for the Conservatives.  They don't care, they're ignorant and they just want things to progress so they can stop hearing about Brexit.  Sadly, I think the Conservatives will fair even better this time round despite having a more dangerous and divisive leader.

Honestly, we're **** as a country and will be for decades.

Edited November 18, 2019 by bobzy

[Wainy316]

32 minutes ago, tomav84 said:

they tried, with the likes of osbourne and some banker chiefs saying how 1000s of banking jobs will go, but that unwittingly probably gave the leave side a few more votes as people love to stick it to the bankers

Yep, despite regularly voting in the interests of these bankers whilst regularly voting against their own.

[tomav84]

13 minutes ago, bobzy said:

I think it is mainly because of ignorance, though.

One of the things that gets overlooked (I think) when we discuss Brexit is the amount of people who like being right and dislike injustice.  "Leave won, let's just get on with that" is such a ridiculously popular viewpoint that I actually think, despite the amount of lies, chaos and downright farce that we've seen during/since the referendum , a Leave vote would be stronger this time round.  People who voted Leave wouldn't shift in masses but many who didn't vote or voted Remain would now go for Leave.  That's the level of **** that we are because of the ignorance of the public.  Additionally, two of my good friends who voted Remain have said they'd vote Leave if the chance came around again because we've wasted so much time and money on it that we might as well see it through.  They're sensible, intelligent and not massively into politics - I imagine that sort of view covers a lot of the population.

This is all the same reason that people will vote for the Conservatives.  They don't care, they're ignorant and they just want things to progress so they can stop hearing about Brexit.  Sadly, I think the Conservatives will fair even better this time round despite having a more dangerous and divisive leader.

Honestly, we're **** as a country and will be for decades.

i wondered that myself. there will definitely be some that cross from leave to remain as they were lied regarding the 350m to NHS etc. however there will be the pro democracy lot that switch to leave, plus the 'lets just get on with it' group you mentioned. the only way i could see a realistic 2nd referendum resulting in remain is if the turnout of younger voters significantly increases.

[Genie]

9 minutes ago, tomav84 said:

i wondered that myself. there will definitely be some that cross from leave to remain as they were lied regarding the 350m to NHS etc. however there will be the pro democracy lot that switch to leave, plus the 'lets just get on with it' group you mentioned. the only way i could see a realistic 2nd referendum resulting in remain is if the turnout of younger voters significantly increases.

Labour could push the free University education again, that would do it.

[HanoiVillan]

26 minutes ago, bobzy said:

"Leave won, let's just get on with that" is such a ridiculously popular viewpoint that I actually think, despite the amount of lies, chaos and downright farce that we've seen during/since the referendum , a Leave vote would be stronger this time round.  

I know it's frustrating, but the first view you're outlining isn't ridiculous. It isn't wrong to expect politicians to carry out the mandates they have been set by the electorate, unless there are exceptional reasons not to. Currently, voters don't seem to feel that there are enough such reasons. 

[HanoiVillan]

19 minutes ago, tomav84 said:

i wondered that myself. there will definitely be some that cross from leave to remain as they were lied regarding the 350m to NHS etc. however there will be the pro democracy lot that switch to leave, plus the 'lets just get on with it' group you mentioned. the only way i could see a realistic 2nd referendum resulting in remain is if the turnout of younger voters significantly increases.

The second referendum most likely to lead to a Remain vote would be the referendum Labour are offering; this is because most Leavers would probably boycott the vote (encouraged by the Conservatives) and most of those that didn't would vote against it as a 'BRINO'. The combination of leavers and remainers voting against would always be larger than the number voting for such a deal. 

However, this poses other validity/mandate issues of course. 

[chrisp65]

It’s kicking off and getting dirty in Ceredigion....we go live to the LibDem’s election HQ:

 

Shoulda rented all three floors.

Edited November 18, 2019 by chrisp65

[blandy]

4 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

We still aren't anywhere close to winning the argument, and it's a cop-out to say that's just because - or even mainly because - of the electorate's ignorance.

It's partly due to the 2 main parties being Leave parties. There's not been either main party providing opposition to Leaving, just different versions of leaving. Obviously individual MPs, but Party wise it's been Labour and Tory Leave and the small, ignored (apart from in Scotland) parties Remain. So the media coverage of it politically has been slanted toards Leave, with "shock! drama" if/when a Grieve or whoever manages to rustle up enough votes to win a (to most people) odd parliamentary vote and fdefeat May or Johnson. So even though Labour (sometimes) supported those backbencher votes, their own policy, er, remained "to Leave" (and it sort of still is - first thing they say they'll do is to negotiate a different deal to Leave).

Meanwhile, Lib Dems are in some places standing where they'd be better off letting a genuine remainy Labour candidate challenge the Tory, and Labour are doing exactly the same where they have no hope, but a LD does. It's in neither of their interests, really, though I know why they do it.

[Vive_La_Villa]

Don’t get why Labour aren’t just offering a straight stay or leave referendum. What am I missing?

[Wainy316]

1 minute ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Don’t get why Labour aren’t just offering a straight stay or leave referendum. What am I missing?

Because there will be no version of leave to offer should they be elected

[chrisp65]

1 minute ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Don’t get why Labour aren’t just offering a straight stay or leave referendum. What am I missing?

They would have to be offering the Johnson deal as leave, and it’s shit.

[HanoiVillan]

30 minutes ago, blandy said:

It's partly due to the 2 main parties being Leave parties. There's not been either main party providing opposition to Leaving, just different versions of leaving. Obviously individual MPs, but Party wise it's been Labour and Tory Leave and the small, ignored (apart from in Scotland) parties Remain. So the media coverage of it politically has been slanted toards Leave, with "shock! drama" if/when a Grieve or whoever manages to rustle up enough votes to win a (to most people) odd parliamentary vote and fdefeat May or Johnson. So even though Labour (sometimes) supported those backbencher votes, their own policy, er, remained "to Leave" (and it sort of still is - first thing they say they'll do is to negotiate a different deal to Leave).

Meanwhile, Lib Dems are in some places standing where they'd be better off letting a genuine remainy Labour candidate challenge the Tory, and Labour are doing exactly the same where they have no hope, but a LD does. It's in neither of their interests, really, though I know why they do it.

There's some truth to that, yes, but I think it puts too much focus on votes in Parliament, which are more often a result of, rather than a cause of, shifts in public sentiment. 

Leaving Westminster parties aside for a moment, the bigger issue seems to me to be that the Remain side put forward all of the relevant arguments in 2016, and they were found wanting by the 3% of the electorate who could have swung the result. The circumstances have changed less than people make out, and there are few arguments we can make now that weren't made then. People wanted a change in 2016 in large part because they were unhappy with the status quo; the benefits of the EU were too all-encompassing (the single market), too hard to observe compared to the drawbacks (free movement in) or only useful to a mobile elite who didn't need persuading (Erasmus scheme, EHIC cards, free movement out). 

We can easily imagine a world where the last three years persuaded, say, 15% of the electorate that Brexit was too hard, not worthwhile and wouldn't leave the country in a better place. That's the sort of margin that would make pursuing Brexit a politcall-damaging strategy. It's worth thinking why that hasn't happened IMO. 

[ml1dch]

24 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Don’t get why Labour aren’t just offering a straight stay or leave referendum. What am I missing?

We did that in 2016. Why ask the same question again?

[Demitri_C]

Wonder if we may see a lib dem Labour coalition.

[Vive_La_Villa]

28 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

They would have to be offering the Johnson deal as leave, and it’s shit.

Of course. So maybe they could have just offered to revoke article 50 like the Lib Dem’s are. It would have got Dems vote.

[bickster]

Andrea makes a play for a Cabinet Position in the next Labour Government.