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Cup Final One of Eight. Build Up.


Don_Simon

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Just hope we start this one with everyone in their zone and on the same page. Do that and we'll get the win I think. A slow start might prove costly.

I don't know much about Blackburn except for Dack, who can create something from little and will be a threat if we allow him the ball in their final third.

This game falls on my birthday and I have arranged everything so all commitments and celebrating will be done on other days, so that I can enjoy the weekend to myself.

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12 hours ago, SirSteveUK said:

My calculations are more basic - just based on strength of schedule (home & away) - based on the ranking of the away records of the teams we play at home - and the ranking of the home records of the teams we play away.

The figures on the right indicate strength of schedule - the lower the number - the tougher it is. My figures would indicate that we have  the 3rd toughest home games (PNE/Wed worse) and the 5th toughest.away games (behind Norwich/SheffUtd/Preston/Forest) among the top 10  -   both 'distorted'  to some degree by the inclusion of the best away record (Norwich)to come to VP and the 3rd best home record to play on our travels  (Leeds)

Either way you cut it - we have 5 games we should win - plus Wed away / Leeds away & Norwich at home - that we need pts from. I agree with the general opinion - we should aim for 5 wins 2 draws & 1 defeat = 74 pts - a target that only the Top 4 are on schedule to meet so far.

 1737308971_ScreenShot03-24-19at07_18PM.PNG.73f80f9b462cd2f04dc551d3c1b5ad65.PNG

 

Shows just how relatively easy Derbys run in is.

They are favorites from this position!

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16 hours ago, BOF said:

My table adjusted for home/away record as opposed to league position, and excluding the final 2 games because the situation will be different by then, actually gives us the easiest run left in the whole league.

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Adding the final 2 back in drops us considerably, but I'm more concerned with the first 6 games.  We'll see where we are then on the gameweek commencing 19/04

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God I love these spreadsheets!

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A win on Saturday might take us into 5th place and create a little breathing space between those clubs that are currently outside of the play off positions and ourselves. Our visitors last won at Villa Park in 2010. Overall we have won 66 and have drawn 34 of the 159 league meetings that there have been between the two clubs. 

Blackburn like us were founder members of the Football League. They have been League Champions three times (the last time in season 1994-95), have won the League Cup once and have won the FA Cup six times. They were last in the top flight in season 2011-12 and are currently 10 points below us in 16th place. 

We really do need to make it 5 successive wins on Saturday. Do it for us Villa!  

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1 hour ago, Nigel said:

Still like to see Davis given a good outing to give him some pitch time.

He can definitely come on when we're 3 up.

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1 hour ago, Nigel said:

Tammy being available is good news. Still like to see Davis given a good outing to give him some pitch time.

This scare shows how easy it would be to lose him.

Yes be good to have the chance to give the other options up top some time on the pitch but we do seem to have goals from midfield aplenty now so less pressure on the centre forward to score them all. Kodija playing centrally if Tammy did get ruled out would probably be ok too. Would offer less, I doubt he'd come deep and link up like Tammy does but he'd score a few.

Winning 5 of the last 8 is a big ask seeing as we come into it winning 4 on the bounce, it would mean a massive winning run. That said though with a near full house at Villa Park we should be doing this lot. Play like the last few games and we should be out of sight by half time.

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Good that Tammy is fit. He's not been scoring a lot recently but his all-round game is top notch and it's not just his goals that he brings to this team.

 

Some selection headaches on Saturday. Does Dean bring Tuanzebe straight back in, probably for Taylor with Hause going to LB? I think it would be harsh and slightly rash to change things, so probably best to keep things as they are, but equally Hause looks more comfortable on the left-hand side and Tuanzebe-Mings could be very impressive. Tough call. In midfield too, does he bring Hourihane back in, probably at the expense of Whelan? For me on this one I think he should - Whelan was brilliant against Boro and did the simple things really well, but has just played 90 mins for Ireland at 35 years old. And out wide too, does he drop Green for Adomah or go with Green again. Given Adomah scored against Boro (albeit he couldn't miss), he probably deserves the nod, but I'm hoping Green takes his chance when he next gets it - he looked average against Boro.

 

Blackburn are in really poor form and we've just won four on the bounce, so I'm really hoping we put in another strong performance. Three points is all that matters though. 

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