Richard Posted June 28, 2005 Share Posted June 28, 2005 the bold bit above is a mis-quote surely as if that were the case Ellis' would get little more than £20m for his 34% holding Well an offer in the region of £4 per share would give him £16M. If he personally wants £60M then he is looking for around £15 per share, and that offer would need to be made to everyone meaning that it would cost £15 * 11,500,000 or £173M for every share. I would take it at £60 for the club which would make the offer at £5 per share. Still a tidy profit on his initial 400K investment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted June 28, 2005 Moderator Share Posted June 28, 2005 If you were old and very unwell, and had a choice - a) 24 million quid in cash you can stay as chairman of a plc, taking 250 grand a year and sort of having to go to "work" most days, but faced with the prospect of stressful times... Which would you choose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon_Terry Posted June 28, 2005 Share Posted June 28, 2005 I'd choose a). But then i don't have an ego the size of Siberia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Posted June 28, 2005 Share Posted June 28, 2005 If the shares are trading at £4 and the offer is £45m would he not get nearer £16m at face value? I have gone for £80m + as I think he will ask for a sum that will make any takeover a none runner as it did last time and if it did go ahead any money potential buyers would have that would otherwise have gone to building the squad would end up in his back pocket instead. Prove me wrong Mr Chairman and do the right thing for the club, for your family and for yourself. £24m would not be a bad reward for what you have achieved since 1982 would it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denis_B Posted June 28, 2005 Share Posted June 28, 2005 The problem Ellis has is the BOARD have to make a decison about what is right for ALL shareholders. Ellis cansay what he likes the rest can recommend the bid to shareholders.......... The Meaning Evil seems to hint that they might just do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LancsVillan Posted June 28, 2005 Moderator Share Posted June 28, 2005 Which Denis is why I think the timing of this - or any - bid is so good, because with Doug out of the way he can only vote by proxy on the board, thus some of his normal allies may just vote against him. As that is a lot easier to do without him present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brummybloke Posted June 28, 2005 Share Posted June 28, 2005 technically it is what ever people will pay for it, on the other hand we have someone in his 80's who doesnt need the money. i think he will only sell to who he thinks would be right for villa, even if it meant getting less money than someone he thought would not be good for the club. but 60-80 million is still a snip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubav Posted June 28, 2005 Share Posted June 28, 2005 I think he will ask for around 60-65 million just to price anyone interested out of the market as i can't really see anyone paying that kind of money for the club,but i would love to be proven wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted June 28, 2005 Moderator Share Posted June 28, 2005 To be honest, and it's just pure guesswork on my part, I think around 6 quid a share, or just under would be an accurate reflection of the worth of the club (without Ellis). With the current share price being just under 4 quid a share, the price is maybe a bit depressed from what it ought to be, if we were less timidly run, had had proper corporate governance and a professional board throughout. The club's value contains no debt, some reasonable land assets - perhaps 15 million quids worth, a playing squad and property worth a tidy sum, a regular income stream, large fan base etc etc.... It's just that football shares in general have lost favour from the over hyped times maybe 8 years ago, and that VIlla is so unimaginatively run, and run more for the benefit of Ellis than of the "business" overall. There's scope for growth. The issue though is whether any owner, Ellis or new, will run the Aston Villa as a football club, or as a cash machine investment. At the moment is is run as a bit of both and mostly neither. Ellis is not excessively paid by Prem standards, though he is on performance and compared to Chairmen CEOs of other (non-football businesses with similar turnover, and equally there's been a lot less investment in the actual football side of the club than at other established top level clubs. The devil we know is a devil, and whoever comes next has a slightly better than even chance of being an improvement, but that doesn't mean that he/she couldn't be worse. Detail is what we need, but are unlikely to get, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LancsVillan Posted June 28, 2005 Moderator Share Posted June 28, 2005 agree with all you say there blandy and also think there are a lot of cash rich business types who can see us as a good investment. Even when I take off the fans glasses I see a much under marketed global brand, it was a great brand once and could easily be again. Markets in South America and Scandinavia should already be plugged into and they aren't. The only thing we don't have is a 'fashionable' London address but with technology advances and even the better transport links we are 90 minutes or so away from the major connurbations. We were big and could quite easily be big again Just needs someone to take the gamble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterms Posted June 28, 2005 Share Posted June 28, 2005 With the current share price being just under 4 quid a share, the price is maybe a bit depressed from what it ought to be, if we were less timidly run, had had proper corporate governance and a professional board throughout... ... Villa is so unimaginatively run, and run more for the benefit of Ellis than of the "business" overall. Yes. But the share price could be a lot higher if we had played to the strengths Ellis inherited, the fan base, the European Cup etc. What an irony that his running of the club in his own interest (safe, staid, unadventurous, keep in the top division but don't spend more than you have to) has depressed the share price below what it should be. He probably thinks that if the share price is higher than he paid, that means he's done well. What an arse. His tactics have meant that he can pay himself £500k a year. But the lack of a strategy has meant that his shareholding is worth - what - a half, a quarter of what it could have been worth with good club business management. He's lost himself money, even in his own narrow terms of reference. Good night, dopey Doug. Time for bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted June 28, 2005 Moderator Share Posted June 28, 2005 ....the share price could be a lot higher if we had played to the strengths Ellis inherited, the fan base, the European Cup etc. What an irony that his running of the club in his own interest (safe, staid, unadventurous, keep in the top division but don't spend more than you have to) has depressed the share price below what it should be. He probably thinks that if the share price is higher than he paid, that means he's done well. What an arse....the lack of a strategy has meant that his shareholding is worth - what - a half, a quarter of what it could have been worth with good club business management. He's lost himself money, even in his own narrow terms of reference.... Spot on, except for a slight [can't think of the right word] in the last line - "he's lost himself money" - he hasn't. He just hasn't made as much as he could/should have ':?' because he's such a weeny. As an aside, I'll post the goats back tomorrow Peter. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee_av Posted June 29, 2005 Share Posted June 29, 2005 Ellis doesn't need the money - it's the prestige that he thrives on. He will continue until he keels over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-Copenhagen Posted June 29, 2005 Share Posted June 29, 2005 If that was true I think he would have sold long ago and stayed as president or something like that. No I think he thrives on power and control, but serious money can play to his ego and pursuade him to let go - I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianrobo1 Posted June 29, 2005 Share Posted June 29, 2005 I don't think it matters now what Doug values the club at but his family. I have a feeling Doug is not well now (I mean more than just the OP) we have had no updates in more than a week now and nothing from him. I don;t know so this is a conspiracy throy but maybe Doug is no longer in a position to make the decisions but his family is and perspective buyers know this ... Once you know Petchey can be brought and Doug's family is in charge you can control the club. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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